1. 1 The Yukon River Basin Assessment and Integrated Climate-Effects Monitoring Network

2. 2 Notes Boreal Forest Ecosystems 25 - 30% of Global Soil Pool 30% Global Vegetation Pool The Yukon Basin holds large stores of carbon

3. 3 Globally and locally significant rapid change Permafrost Temperature Romanovsky, 1999 19782002 (courtesy of B. Riordan)

4. 4 Wetter,warmer Will thawing permafrost greatly accelerate CO 2 flux? C Loss to Fire -- % of NPP C Loss to Decomposition % of NPP 0 30 60 V. Poorly Drained Drier,warmer Cooler, wetter 0100 Permafrost Landscapes Well drained Harden et al, GCB Dec. 2000 Landscape is Heterogeneous, Controlled by Soil Drainage Permafrost Landscape Highly “Elastic” in C exchange

5. 5 Coastal Ocean Issues:  The largest coastal C sinks are considered to be “the high-productivity waters of the Bering Sea shelf where nutrient and sediment inputs from coastal rivers are large and variable ” (OCCC Strategic Plan: Doney et al, 2004). River export of carbon is changing with permafrost thawing (Striegl et al, 2005)

6. 6 The Yukon River Basin Assessment and Integrated Climate-Effects Monitoring Network   OBJECTIVE: To use a multi-agency collaboration to compute whole-system hydrologic, carbon, and energy budgets for a common frame of reference (a watershed), and to assess how changes in those balances affect human activity and ecological function.

7. 7 Assessment Science Questions   How will increases in temperature affect the hydrology of the Yukon River Basin?   Will carbon “feedbacks” to the atmosphere from thawing permafrost potentially enhance global climate warming?   How will warming affect the abundance, quality, and distribution of subsistence resources?   What strategies are needed to mitigate or adapt to the likely effects of warming in northern latitudes?

8. 8 Multi-component –Multi scale Observations For a Common Frame of Reference

9. 9 Vegetation Soil Organic Matter Soil Inorganic Carbon CO 2(g) abvR CO 2(aq) HCO 3 - CO 3 -2 rootR RHRH CO 2 (g) Alkalinity CO 2(aq) Shaded area = Modified TEM soilR DOC Stream Export CO 2 (g) Chemical Weathering POC GPP erodePOC leachDOC harvest leachCO2leachALK evadeCO2 fire Models that link terrestrial and aquatic systems:

10. 10 The Yukon Watershed is entirely above 60 o North Latitude

11. 11 Significant federal lands in the Yukon Basin  5 National Parks/ NRAs (Vital Signs)  8 Wildlife Refuges  3 Large military land holdings (CRREL) Clow, 2006

12. 12 Proposed Data Collection- USGS/Canada Porcupine River Tanana River Yukon River Koyukuk River Whitehorse Fort Yukon Pilot Station StevensVillage Eagle Fixed Station Network River Sampling June & Aug-Sept., 2002 June & Aug-Sept., 2003 Major Drainage Basins Porcupine R. Tanana R. Upper Yukon R. & Headwaters East Central Yukon R. Koyukuk R. & West, Lower Yukon R. Yukon R. at Eagle Yukon R. at Pilot Station Tanana R. Porcupine R. Yukon R. near Stevens Village LTER, Wolf Creek NOAA-IPY USGS Fixed river stations and research watersheds Flux Tower (YRITWC)

13. 13 Forest Water Integrated Regional Assessment of Effects of Climate in the Yukon River Basin FIA, USGS, LTER, BLM, UA, NRCAN FIA/FHM- USGS, NPS, NRCS, Research & Surveys Soil USGS, UAF, UAA, CRREL, YRITWC, NOAA, Alaska DEC FWS, NPS, UA, USGS Air NOAA, USGS, UAF, FLUXNET Biology

14. 14 Range Brooks Range Range Alaska Range Seward Peninsula Fairbanks Anchorage MODIS Satellite, 10 August, 2005 The Yukon River Basin: A rapidly changing landscape

15. 15 Scope of a Socio-Economic Assessment Risk reduction Strategies land use, mitigation, emergency response Scientific data extent, magnitude, probability of MULTIPLE natural hazards Vulnerability physical, environmental, social, economic (property) Natural hazard risk analysis Acceptable community risk Natural hazards risk reduction decision-making Shapiro, written comm.

16. 16 PERMAFROST CO 2 CH 4 Thermo-karst wetlands emitted 13 times more CH 4 to the atmosphere than the permafrost plateau sites on an annual basis. mmol CH 4 m -2 hr -1 - 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 3/204/94/295/196/86/287/188/78/27 9/16 Thermokarst wetlands Thermokarst edges Permafrost plateau METHANE FLUX Wickland, 2006

17. 17 Multi-tier Monitoring Design Scale-appropriate monitoring linked through common indicators   Tier One – Intensive Research Areas   Relatively small number of specific sites representing important processes   Tier Two – Gradient-based surveys   Mapping of condition using sites representative of a specific condition class and indicator coverages.   Tier Three – Extensive Inventories and Surveys   Statistical representation of the population   Tier Four –Remote Sensing and Mapping   Wall-to-wall coverage Increasing spatial resolution Increasing temporal resolution

18. 18 FOREST SERVICE INVENTORY SAMPLE PLAN (12-15 years) Tanana River 5 yrs Lower Yukon 5 yrs n plots 301 598 180 plots/yr Upper Yukon – Porcupine 2 yrs 261 n plots 118 190 plots/yr n plots 89 1010 220 plots/yr Ac/plot 94,400 23,600 Draft, Van Hees, 2005

19. 19 Expectations for the talk   Conceptual description   Relevance to IPY goals   Partnerships   Related work within DOI

20. 20 1.Present Environmental Status 2.Past and Present Changes 3.Global and Regional Multi-scale Linkages 4.New Frontiers of Understanding 5.Establishing a Northern Vantage Point 6.Human Dimension: Sustainability Addresses all IPY Research Themes: