1. 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner Zentrum für Soziale Innovation Centre for Social Innovation

2. The big challenges … and the potential of Europe „NEW FRONTIERS“ FOR EUROPE ? Political integration Economic development Cultural diversity Social cohesion Constitutional Processes Human & growth potential, purchasing power Languages, exchange, mutual respect Reduction and closing of gaps Two topical issues for debate: How to reach the “tipping point”, winning people‘s hearts and minds? Does “Europe” need and acknowledge a “founding myth”?

3. Stages and context of the emergence of the EU 25+ 1945 The ruins of post-WW-II Europe: Incubator of a new Europe? 1948 OEEC - Organisation for European Economic Co-operation 1949 European Council - Oldest political body in Europe (45 MS) 1951 Six countries coal and steel treaty - initiating a peace project 1957 Treaty of Rome - European Economic Community 1960 EFTA - European Free Trade Association 1979 First enlargement (DK, IE, UK) and direct elections to EP 1981 Second enlargement (GR) 1986 Third enlargement (ES, PT) and Act to form EEA (until 1993) 1992 Treaty of Maastricht to change EEC into EU 1995 Forth enlargment (AT, FI, SE) 1997 Treaty of Amsterdam 1999 Euro-zone (11 MS, GR joins 2001; DK, SE and UK opt out) 2000 Treaty of Nice to prepare for “Eastern enlargement” 2002 Euro implemented as actual currency in 12 MS 2004 Fifth enlargement (10 new MS) 2004 EU Council agrees on a “European Constitution” THE EUROPEAN UNION IN EUROPE

4. EU 25 accept the Constitution as planned until 2006 Highway toward further enlargement, economic, cultural and social developments, EU takes on role as global player Constitutional framework open to develop into a “Transnational Entity”, or “Con-Federation” or “Federation” EU 25 accept the Constitution until 2010 All developments possible at slower pace A majority of MS accept the Constitution, some opt out Slower enlargement possible, less ecomomic, cultural and social inclusion A confederation of some MS may emerge, most likely those participating in the EMU Implementation of the Constitution fails Major set-back, ecomomic policies will prevail EU may be kept busy to regulate internal polarity and conflicts SCENARIOS OF EU-POLITICS

5. GREAT EXPECTATIONS Most relevant pro‘s and con‘s when people vote for joining the EU Economic prosperity and employment (farming, industry, services …) Regional development Mobility, infrastructure, transport Security and social security Democracy, values and identity - modernisation, solidarity, participation, deliberation - “symbolic policies” (self-determination, representation)

6. Currently agreed limit: 1,24 % of GDP (all MS) planned 2006: 1,11 % (overall some 120 bn Euro) planned 2013: 1,23 % (forecast: ca. 160 bn Euro) few instruments (structural funds and their programmes, RTD-framework programme, programmes and tenders of the various DGs) Co-financing: a good method with several national restrictions SMALL BUDGETS

7. The new Member States (MS) … mainly comprise a variety of forms of post-communist capitalism … need industrial re-orientation and catching-up in new environments of governance and knowledge based economies Scientific principle to adopt effective projects “Technological congruence” (M. Abramovitz, Stanford) Structural similarity in factor utilisation, markets, organisational modes … Catching-up depends on social capacities to absorb new knowledge, technologies, infrastructures Key areas to improve such capacities: education, training, regulations Structural interventions vs. crisis driven interventions Proper response to restricted budgets Crisis driven interventions may address (ad hoc) large parts of populations Structural interventions in education (Bologna process), research (ERA), capacity and institution building (by means of structural funds and national support ) require long term perspectives and rely on “trickling down” Trickling down may be facilitated by: - “Technological congruence” - Train-the-trainer concepts and support for (Life Long) Learning - Involvement of civil society organisations - Connecting sub-systems education, labour markets, indigenous development STRUCTURAL INTERVENTIONS

8. Three objectives for further development of the European Union to improve and extend the European Social Model to transcend the era of the nation state to take on the role as a global player CONCLUDING OUTLOOK

9. Josef Hochgerner Centre for Social Innovation Linke Wienzeile 246 A - 1150 Vienna Tel. ++43.1.4950442 Fax. ++43.1.4950442-40 email: hochgerner@zsi.at http://www.zsi.at