1. DM 10/18/99 Conflict Prediction, Trial Planning and the Direct-To Tool elements of the Center/TRACON Automation System Dave McNally NASA Ames Research Center Conflict Probe Technical Interchange Meeting Memphis, Tennessee, October 19-21, 1999

2. DM 10/18/99 Background Airspace users lose $2.8 billion per year due to inefficient routing. Air Transport Association estimate Air Traffic Management Problem: Separation Metering and Scheduling User Preference NASA is developing technology to aid controllers with separation and metering and increase user preferred trajectories.

3. DM 10/18/99 Transition Airspace

4. DM 10/18/99 Conflict Probe and Trial Planner CTAS Trajectory Synthesizer (12 sec update) –Radar tracks and flight plans (FAA Host) –Wind forecast - 1 hour updates (NOAA Rapid Update Cycle) –Aircraft performance models (FMS quality) Conflict Probe (6 sec update) –All aircraft trajectories compared for conflict –Graphic display of conflict predictions (20 min. look ahead) Trial Planner (1 sec update) –Point and click, rapid update, ODID-like what-if checking for: direct, vector, altitude, speed changes –Trial plan trajectories conflict probed against all other trajectories

5. DM 10/18/99 Conflict Probe

6. DM 10/18/99 Trial Planner

7. DM 10/18/99 Automatic Altitude Probe Altitude trial planner automatically conflict probes climb or descent to any altitude Climb Example

8. DM 10/18/99 Traffic Management Advisor Computes an efficient arrival sequence that balances arrival demand with airport capacity Displays sequence and schedule advisories to help controllers achieve efficient arrival flow

9. DM 10/18/99 Trial Planner, TMA, Conflict Probe Integration

10. DM 10/18/99 Trial Planner, TMA, Conflict Probe Integration

11. DM 10/18/99 Denver Center Field Test September, 1997 Operational evaluation of CTAS Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning capability Controllers consistently used Trial Planner for direct route conflict resolution clearances –Ease of use: point and click, menu- based, graphic display –Confirm direct route is conflict-free Observed 225 % increase in direct routes with CPTP aiding vs. without Shadow Testing - 10 hours Operational Testing - 88 hours 3 sectors, 15 test controllers 132 CPTP-aided clearances

12. DM 10/18/99 Fort Worth Center Field Test November, 1998 Shadow Testing - 54 hours 3 sectors, 6 test controllers 176 accepted Trial Plans Operational evaluation of Trial Planner in transition airspace Trial planner used as often for non-conflict aircraft as for conflict aircraft. Altitude dominant for conflict resolution –Departures often in conflict –Easy to use altitude trial planner Direct route checking dominant for non-conflict cases –Mostly DFW departures

13. DM 10/18/99 Results Summary Trial Planner very well accepted for strategic planning of over-flight and departure aircraft –Controllers preferred use: search for and evaluate conflict-free direct routes –Observed 225% increase in direct routing with TP vs without. Altitude trial planning with automatic altitude probe well accepted Additional automation needed for metered arrivals –No time to click and drag for arrival metering problem Controller usage of Trial Planner helps identify further automation –Automatic altitude probe, direct route clearance advisories Trial Planner, TMA, Conflict Probe Integration

14. DM 10/18/99 Direct-To Controller Tool

15. DM 10/18/99 Origins Potential of a Direct-To Tool was discovered unexpectedly during field tests of CTAS Conflict Probe / Trial Planning functions at Denver Center (Sept. 97) and was confirmed at Fort Worth Center (Nov. 98). At both centers, controllers pointed out a preferred use for the Trial Planning function: Searching for and evaluating direct routes that are conflict free. The Direct-To Tool was built to automate the search for and execution of direct route trajectories.

16. DM 10/18/99 Direct-To Tool Direct-To identifies aircraft that can save at least one minute by flying direct to a down-stream fix on their route of flight. A Direct-To list on the controllers display shows eligible aircraft, time savings, direct-to fixes, and conflict status. The point-and-click Trial Planner allows controllers to easily display, modify, or accept Direct-To flight plan amendments. Potential savings in flying time for Ft. Worth Center airspace is approximately 1,800 minutes per day or about 2.5 minutes per aircraft.

17. DM 10/18/99 Trial Planning a Direct-To Advisory

18. DM 10/18/99 DFW.DALL5.TXK..LIT.J131.PXV.J29.JHW.J82.ALB.GDM2.BOS SJC./.TXO..SJT.CUGAR6.IAH Examples: Limit Rectangle

19. DM 10/18/99 Technical Questions Identify operational envelop for use of Direct-To clearance advisories Identify sectors or airspace regions where Direct- To could be most beneficial Validate fully integrated (CTAS/Host/DSR) Direct-To system

20. DM 10/18/99 Trial Planner A D-Side Operations Concept Direct-To list filtered by sector ownership displayed on D-Side monitor. Controller clicks list element to activate Trial Planner with graphic display. Graphic display closes when Direct-To accepted or rejected. Consistent with multiple display windows on D-side (like URET A/C list and GPD) Direct-To List DSR R-SideDSR D-Side

21. DM 10/18/99 An R-Side Operations Concept Trial Planner Graphics Trial Planner Panel DSR R-SideDSR D-Side Direct-To List Direct-To list filtered by sector ownership displayed on R-Side monitor Controller clicks list to activate Trial Planner functions on R-side monitor R and/or D controllers operate Direct-To

22. DM 10/18/99 Recent Activities Controller Simulation, NASA Ames, Aug-99 –4 FPL controllers from Fort Worth Center - feedback very favorable –D controller operated tool and suggested clearances to R controller –Controller team felt Direct-To ready for field test at Ft. Worth Center Host Integration Testing, FAATC, Jun-99 –Functional demo of CTAS TMA/Direct-To with 2-way Host interface –Validated 2 mouse click Direct-To flight plan amendment –Required only minor mods to Host interface (320 patch). –250 Direct-To flight plan amendments of various types input to Host DSR Integration Testing, Lockheed Martin, Apr-99 –Functional demo of CTAS display on D-side monitor with DSR keyboard, trackball, and network - no perceived delays.

23. DM 10/18/99 Direct-To Summary Using the CTAS Trajectory Synthesis methodology and software with its hourly wind updates the Direct-To Tool identifies and advises direct route clearances that can save at least 1 minute flying time. Direct-To advisories account for arrival routing restrictions (e.g., STARs), do not deviate aircraft significantly from their planned route of flight, and are probed for conflict. Lab analysis of live Ft. Worth Center traffic data shows potential for 1,800 min savings per day (2.5 min per clearance avg.) at Ft. Worth Center. This equates to $18,000,000 per year. (NAS-wide estimates are over $100,000,000 per year). Controller workload for direct route flight plan amendments is significantly reduced through integration with the Trial Planner: 20+ keyboard entries are reduced to 2 mouse clicks. Feedback from controllers and airline representatives is very favorable. Fort Worth Center controller team says Direct-To Tool and concept ready for initial field test evaluation. Next Steps: DSR simulation at FAATC and field test at Fort Worth Center.

24. DM 10/18/99 www.ctas.arc.nasa.gov McNally, D., Bach, R., Chan, W.: Field Test Evaluation of the CTAS Conflict Prediction and Trial Planning Capability, AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference, August 10-12, 1998, Boston, MA (AIAA-98-4480). McNally, D., Erzberger, H., Bach, R., Chan, W.: A Controller Tool for Transition Airspace, AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference, August 9-11, 1999, Portland, OR (AIAA-99-4298). Erzberger, H., McNally, D., Foster, M.: Direct-To Tool for En Route Controllers, ATM99: IEEE Workshop on Advanced Technologies and their Impact on Air Traffic Management in the 21 st Century. September 26-30, 1999, Capri, Italy.