1. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation Document Number Here Traffic Flow Management Impact Assessment Research TFM Technical Interchange Meeting 31 October 2001 Craig Wanke

2. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 2 Traffic Flow Management (TFM): Why Impact Assessment Decision Support? Today, FAA facilities and airlines plan flow management actions with limited collaboration and little or no way to predict effects of actions such as: –Ground delay programs, ground stops –Severe weather reroutes –Miles-in-trail boundary crossing restrictions Few decision support tools available to evaluate impact! Result: localized, highly conservative solutions to problems affecting wide areas of the US airspace –Excessive constraints on airports and airspace –Unintended consequences of multiple restrictions

3. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 3 CAASD Research Integrated miles-in-trail (MIT) and rerouting evaluation capability –Analyzes one or several proposed MITs in conjunction with manual or National Playbook reroutes NAS-wide TFM impact assessment analysis –Couples demand estimation with large scale queuing model to obtain NAS throughput and delays Several types of applications: –Real-time decision-support –TFM post-event analysis –Analysis of changes in the NAS

4. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 4 MIT Evaluation Interface 80:44:77 20 Number of Miles in Trail Average Delay in minutes Maximum Delay in minutes Number of aircraft involved MIT delay (hh:mm:ss) MIT delay + Reroute delay (hh:mm:ss)

5. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 5 Example: Weather in Northeast U.S. WEST_VUZ Play Being Evaluated

6. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 6 Impacted Arrivals: ZNY, ZBW, ZDC

7. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 7 Modeling Miles-In-Trail Impact - Delays ZME-ZTL Boundary, Passbacks to ZKC, ZFW

8. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 8 ZTL Sector Loads, No Actions

9. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 9 ZTL Sector Loads, WEST_VUZ applied:

10. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 10 ZTL Sector Loads, Reroute + MITs

11. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 11 Modeling MIT Restrictions for TFM DSS Model MIT impact for predicting: –Sector counts, upstream and downstream of the restrictions –Delays for spacing aircraft to the modeled restrictions Not necessary to model ATC actions precisely –Actions can include vectoring, holding, speed instructions Modeling approach –assume ground delay for flights departing near the restriction –active flights and inactives departing far from the restriction: slow flight progress starting near the restriction Preliminary research indicates this is a good model –vectoring activities rarely take aircraft into new sectors –spacing maneuvers start approximately two sectors upstream

12. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 12 Modeling MIT Restrictions for TFM DSS 23:10:14 20 KBBB KAAA Range Limit for Airborne Delays Range Limit for Ground Delays ABC Top of Descent This Flight: Ground Delay = Airborne Delay These Flights: Airborne Delays = Ground Delay 20 MIT Restriction = Navigation Aid = Airport Key:

13. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 13 ORD ZAU OKK ZID ZTL ZME Hour of Boundary Crossing = 1300 - 1359Z x (NMI) y (NMI) No Delay Vectoring ORD Arrival Flow from ZID via OKK 4/2/2001 Different Colors = Different Tracks

14. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 14 In-Trail Spacing at Boundary (NMI) ORD Arrival Flow from ZID via OKK 4/2/2001: Observed Spacing During MITs Pairwise Spacing at Boundary (NMI) Posted MIT (NMI) 1200 -1259 Delay Vectoring Observed 1300-1359 Lack of Delay Vectoring Time of Flight Crossing Boundary

15. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 15 Delay Vectoring Example ORD ZAU OKK ZID ZTL ZME Delay Vectoring: Begins 150 nmi Upstream of MIT Hour of Boundary Crossing = 1200 - 1259Z x (NMI) y (NMI) Different Colors = Different Tracks

16. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 16 MIT + Rerouting Evaluation Capability: Plans Continue to obtain field feedback –Initial responses were enthusiastic. TMCs see great potential for using this capability to reduce usage of MIT restrictions –What are the basic assumptions, metrics, procedures, etc. for collaborating on enroute flow restrictions such as MITs? CAASD has defined a strawman operational concept to facilitate discussion Provide to CAASD Spring 2002 staff at ATCSCC for use in replay mode (post-event analysis) Continue to study technical issues –Model validation –Modeling in-place restrictions (static and dynamic) –Implementation on the TFM-I (ETMS, CCSD, …) –Include additional traffic management initiatives? (GDPs, etc.)

17. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 17 NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment CORBA-Based Data, Comm, Control Services RDBMS DPAT CRCT Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management

18. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 18 NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment CORBA-Based Data, Comm, Control Services RDBMS DPAT CRCT Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management Specify Strategies: Rerouting, Dynamic Miles-in-Trail Provide Detailed Demand Data for DPAT: Individual, up-to-minute flight plans for NAS Detailed trajectories, including LOA/SOP effects Trial plans for strategy evaluations Real-time and Playback Modes Available

19. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 19 NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment CORBA-Based Data, Comm, Control Services RDBMS DPAT CRCT Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management Define Scenario: Reroute Sets, MIT Sets, Resource Capacities, Schedule Changes Simulation Control: Run DPAT with baseline or scenario Choose results for comparative display Can run several DPAT instances at once

20. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 20 NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment CORBA-Based Data, Comm, Control Services RDBMS DPAT CRCT Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management DPAT for TFM IA: Individual flight plans (not city-pair) TAF WX parser for airport capacity Airframe itineraries DBMS management of results

21. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 21 NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment CORBA-Based Data, Comm, Control Services RDBMS DPAT CRCT Delay and Throughput VisualizationScenario and Simulation Management Visualize Results: NAS Pacer Airport Delays Delay and Throughput Charts by Airport

22. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 22 Example: Delay Impact on Pacer Airports Green: <15 min avg delay Yellow: 15-30 min avg delay Red: >30 min avg delay

23. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 23 Impact at Airports: Average Arrival Delay at JFK Baseline Reroutes & MIT Applied Hourly Average Delay (min)

24. © 2001 The MITRE Corporation 31 Oct 2001 24 NAS-Wide TFM Impact Assessment: Plans NAS-wide system simulation is envisioned as a widely- available capability with scenario sharing –Users of many types could develop scenarios, share them, modify them, discuss the results However, this is a very early concept! –operational applications and collaboration issues are not well understood –NAS-wide simulation models are not fully mature –not clear how it fits within TFM-I FY02: focus on improving simulation models