1. Slide 1 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 Could we cope with a massive growth in General / Personal Aviation? Michael Sharples Principal Scientist ATC Systems Group Defence Evaluation & Research Agency UK Could we cope with a massive growth in General / Personal Aviation? Michael Sharples Principal Scientist ATC Systems Group Defence Evaluation & Research Agency UK DERA is and Agency of the Ministry of Defence

2. Slide 2 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 The conventional view of future ATM Continued growth in commercial traffic achieved through:- zImproved airspace capacity –Removal of routing restrictions (Free Flight) –Reduced separation standards zUse of larger, more flexible aircraft

3. Slide 3 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 But the enabling technology and the removal of airspace restrictions may have an unforeseen consequence...

4. Slide 4 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 Why a large increase in personal aviation? zCheaper materials and manufacturing technology zInheritance of sophisticated FMS technology from commercial aviation. zCheap, dependable, precision navigation (DGNSS) zIncreasingly sophisticated and reliable conflict avoidance systems. zData link co-ordination between ground & other aircraft.

5. Slide 5 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 The consequences zAir Traffic Movements several times greater than forecast zTypes of movements significantly different to forecast –Different airspace usage –Much greater number of low level movements –Much wider distribution of traffic (more provincial airports and aerodromes) zEnvironmental problems –Noise –Pollution

6. Slide 6 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 Gridlock? zUse of larger number of airfields may be a problem or a solution –distributed load –increased complexity zVolume of traffic may necessitate autonomous air traffic control –executive control of speed, height and heading taken out of control of flight crew –may be more acceptable to the semi-skilled personal aviator than commercial pilots

7. Slide 7 of 7 / CARE Innovative Action Workshop 14-15 March 2001 Areas of investigation zAre the suggested trends already evident in GA? zOne air traffic system, or two operating in parallel? zAssuming a high level of automation, can we predict if the ATM environment may be: –intriniscally stable –intrinsically unstable (chaotic) –intrinsically unsafe