1. Hypothesis test in climate analyses Xuebin Zhang Climate Research Division

2. Useful books

3. Outline Application of hypothesis tests in climate analyses, not a lecture of statistics The statistical test of a hypothesis –Concept, two types of errors –In the case of non-iid Multiple tests and global significance –Independent tests –Non-independent tests An application –Detection of anthropogenic climate change

4. Test of a hypothesis Null hypothesis H 0 Alternative hypothesis H a Two outcomes of a test –Reject H 0 : we have strong evidence that H 0 is false (but does not imply acceptance of H a ) –Failure to reject H 0 : evidence in the sample not inconsistent with H 0 (but does not imply acceptance of H 0 ) Only consider the case without H a

5. The ingredients of a test A data sample, or observations Rules for the test: –Observations x, a realization of random vector X –Significance level: the probability of rejecting the H 0 when it is true –Test statistic

6. Type I and type II errors Type I error –Reject H 0 while it is true –Significance level Type II error –Failure to reject H 0 when it is false

8. An example Linear regression: Estimation with least square Null- hypothesis: H 0 : Test statistic:

9. i.i.d. A sequence or other collection of random variables is independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) if each has the same probability distribution as the others and all are mutually independent. i.i.d. is very common in statistics: observations in a sample are USUALLY assumed to be (more-or-less) i.i.d. for the purposes of statistical inference. The requirement that observations be i.i.d. tends to simplify the underlying mathematics of many statistical methods. However, in practical applications this is most often not realistic. We need to pay particular attention on this issue in almost all hypothesis tests

10. serial correlation has an effect to reduce the number of degrees of freedom Von Storch and Navarra 1995

11. Solution to serially correlated data Pre-whitening: removal of serial correlation Estimate the proper number of DOF Block-bootstrap Consider serially explicitly (generalized linear regression

12. Prewhitening: y(i+1)-alpha*y(i) Von Storch and Navarra 1995

13. Estimate proper number of degrees of freedom (effective sample size) Effective time τ between independent samples can be estimated for autoregressive process Effective sample size n = NΔt/τ Use n in place of N to compute test statistic/critical value

14. Block bootstrap Produce many series that do not have the property (e.g. trend) to be tested by resampling the original series Keep the serial correlation in the resampled data by resampling the data block by block Compute the statistics in the resampled data to come up with the critical values of the test statistic

15. Multiple tests At multiple locations On multiple variables of the same system False rejection with a predefined probability (at the significance level) for each test  more tests mean more possible passed tests by chance Local significance and global (field) significance Livezey and Chen (1983, MWR)

16. 700 hPa height and SOI Chen 1982

17. Global significance: independent tests False rejection expected by chance (at p probability) Probability of x out of N falsely passed tests follow a binomial distribution With a limited number of tests, false rejection rate is greater than the nominal rate defined by the local significance How many rejections are needed to claim a global significance? The significance levels for local and global may differ

18. M percentage (M/30*100) p 00.0%0.215 13.3%0.339 26.6%0.259 310%0.127 413.3%0.045 516.6%0.012 Probability of exact M over 30 passed tests

19. Global significance At p=0.05, there could be 14.1% or more passed tests in 30 tests Or one needs to obtain more than 14.1% passed test to claim global significance at the 5% level It takes more than 1000 independent tests in order for the proportion of passed tests close to (but still slightly higher than) the nominal level

20. 700 hPa height and SOI

21. Multiple tests: non-independent Multiple tests are very often not independent Estimate the proper number of degrees of freedom, use the results for the independent tests Monte-Carlo simulation

22. Estimate DoF

23. Example, M-C simulation

24. Repeatedly generate random variables to mimic the SOI index –Random noise –Block Bootstrap to consider serial correlation –AR process Compute the correlation between 700 hPa height and the generated “soi” indices, and fraction that locally significant correlation has been detected The fraction corresponding to the pre-defined global significance level is the threshold value with which the correlation with real SOI should be compared M-C simulation, more details

25. Hypothesis test, summary Assumptions, assumptions Two types of errors –Type I: falsely reject the null hypothesis –Type II: unable to reject null hypothesis when it is false Climate series usually NOT i.i.d. Local and field significance Multiple tests usually NOT independent

26. Climate change detection and attribution Climate change detection Complicated hypothesis test involving –Data preprocessing –Formulation of test statistic –Interpolation of test result

27. Climate change detection Statistical methods to detect weak climate change signals from noisy background of the incompletely observed climate Physically based computer models to identify patterns of climate change signals Statistical inference based on the comparison between observations and model simulated signals (and noise as well)

28. Weaver and Zwiers, 2000

29. Detection formalism Consider uncertainty in the signal Noise of ith signal May be estimated by total least square method

30. Signal estimates From ensemble runs –Each run contains signal + noise (natural variability) –Signal is each run is expected to be the same –Noise in each run is not expected to be the same, but the variability of the noise is –Averaging ensemble runs has an effect to keep the signal while reducing the noise level  improves S/N ratio and the chance of detection

31. Noise estimate One observation sample not sufficient Estimate from model control runs –Requires very long simulations Estimate from ensemble runs –Difference between runs reflect natural variability –Remove ensemble mean, residual is noise, need to be careful about the number of degrees of freedom Detection is conducted at the scale the model simulates high enough variability

32. Anthropogenic Influence on Global Precipitation Trend Xuebin Zhang (Environment Canada) Francis Zwiers (Environment Canada) Gabi Hegerl (Duke University) Hugo Lambert (UC Berkeley) Nathan Gillett (CRU, UEA) Susan Solomon (NOAA, USA) Peter Stott (Hadley Centre, UK) Toru Nozawa (Japan National Institute of Environmental Studies) www.ec.gc.ca

33. Observational Data Global Historical Climate Network (monthly precipitation at 10000+ stations) Removal of 1961-90 climatology Station annual anomaly (more than 6 months) Gridding to 5x5 lat-long grids –Average of available station anomalies within grid

34. Model simulated data –Anthropogenic forcing (ANT, 8 models, 27runs) –Natural forcing (NAT, V+S, 4 models, 17 runs) –ALL forcing (ANT+NAT) (ALL, 10 models, 50 runs) –HadCM3 1700-yr control run

36. Detection of anthropogenic signal Two periods, 75-yr and 50-yr 10-degree Latitudinal trends Total least square Detection: Attribution:

37. Precipitation variability Overestimation from station data Smaller model variability when compared with obs based estimate EOF truncation of observed and modeled trend Conservative detection result

38. EOF truncation: detection at scale simulated variability ~ observed variability

39. Detection results

40. Summary: detection for precipitation trend Anthropogenic signal detectable in zonal precipitation trend –ALL signal detectable –ANT signal detectable –NAT not detectable First work, with limitations –Obs data –Mismatch in obs and model based variability estimates Extreme may be more promising, but also limited by obs data Paper published in Nature July 26 (doi:10.1038/nature06025)