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Capital Markets Update Brian Stoffers President CBRE Capital Markets March 30, 2009
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 2 This No Longer Looks Like 1990s Month when negative job growth began…for 2008 this was January. 1990s 2008/09 January 2008 July 1990 Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors (formerly TWR)
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 3 Historical Peak Through Recessionary Employment Recession Period # of Months in Recession % Change Peak to Trough Absolute Change Peak to Trough (Millions) 1920 Q1-1921 Q318-10.5-2.9 1929 Q3-1933 Q143-24.6-7.7 1973 Q4-1975 Q116-2.8-2.2 1980 Q1-1980 Q36-1.3-1.2 1981 Q3-1982 Q416-3.1-2.8 1990 Q3-1991 Q18-1.5-1.6 2001 Q1-2001 Q48-2-2.7 2007 Q4-?12… -1.9 to date -2.6 to date Source: BLS 2009
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 4 This Recession is Deeper Already Except for One Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Feb 2009 2001 Recession 1981 Recession 1991 Recession Today
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 5 But It Is Not the Depression! Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Feb 2009
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 6 Business-Driven Economy: Succumbs Source: BEA and CBRE Econometric Advisors (formerly TWR) Contribution to Headline GDP Growth (%)
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 7 Layoffs and Dwindling Confidence... Source: CBRE/Econometric Advisors, BEA...Have Led to Sharply Lower Consumer Spending
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 8 …And Higher Personal Savings Rates Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, BEA
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 9 CMBS Spreads… Source: Citi
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 10 U.S. Commercial & Multifamily Outstanding Source: Mortgage Bankers Association March 2009 BY CAPITAL SOURCE Total $3.5 Trillion
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 11 Source: JP Morgan, Bloomberg Mar. 25, 2009. Bank Market Cap
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 12 Annual Historical Sales by Property Type Source: Real Capital Analytics
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 13 Quarterly Historical Sales by Property Type Source: Real Capital Analytics
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 14 Annual Sales Volumes All Core Source: Real Capital Analytics
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 15 Potential for Refinance Risk Begins in Earnest in 2010 Source: J.P. Morgan, Trepp. Market looking out to 2012 refinancing capabilities; significant five-year full-term 10 exposure 10 Year Loans 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 200920102011201220132014201520162017 Amount to refinance ($bn) AmortizingPartial10Full-Term10 All Loans 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 200920102011201220132014201520162017 Amount to refinance ($bn) AmortizingPartial I0Full-Term I0 5 Year Loans 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 200920102011201220132014201520162017 Amount to refinance ($bn) AmortizingPartial10Full-Term10 7 Year Loans 0 3 6 9 12 15 200920102011201220132014201520162017 Amount to refinance ($bn) AmortizingPartial10Full-Term10
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 16 Estimated Quarterly Mortgage Originations Source: Mortgage Bankers Association
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 17 What’s in & What’s Out INOUT On-Book LendingCMBS Conservative LeverageHigh Octane Capital Stack Equity In-DealCash Out Financing Risk Based PricingInefficient Pricing of Capital Correspondent & Relationship LendingLoan Brokerage High Touch Loan ServicerSecuritized/Impersonal Servicer Amortization- 30 Year ScheduleInterest Only Reserves Funded in CashNo Funded Escrow 450+/- Spreads100+/- Spreads Floor RatesUnlimited Float DCR’s In-PlaceProforma DCR’s RecourseNon-recourse
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 18 U.K. Property: Capital Decline is Faster This Time -35.5% -27% -16.0% Source: IPD Monthly Index (December 2008)
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 19 But Not Here! -11.5% -32.3% Source: NCREIF Cumulative Change in NCREIF NPI Appreciation -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 012345678910111213141516171819202122232425 Quarters Cumulative Percentage Change From 1990 Q1From 2007 Q4
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 20 How High Will Institutional Cap-Rates Go? In the Financial Spiral scenario, an ineffective government response will spur further pullbacks in debt availability and push cap-rates back to levels seen in 2003 wiping out the decade’s gains for many pension funds. Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Investment Outlook Winter 2009, NCREIF
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 21 Fundamentals Moving into the Danger Zone *Except Multifamily and Hotels, which are preliminary Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors Outlook XL Vacancy and Availability Rates 2008Q4* Previous Peak “Natural Rate” Office 13.917.013 to 15 Industrial 11.311.89 to 10 Retail 10.49.79 to 10 Multifamily 6.96.75 to 6 Full Service Hotels 40.144.234 to 38
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CB Richard Ellis | Page 22 Where Are We? “Too late to sell, too early to buy” … – Sellers have regret but under insufficient pressure to sell at the moment. – Buyers in no rush Forced sellers will come from – Balloon refinancing risk – Covenant violation that are enforced Buyers identifying value – “Wave”, not “Wall” of equity, but only at the right price – Prices on core need to adjust to offer long term value Return of debt market – When it happens, it won’t look like it did in 2006/7! – Most likely—insurance model Fundamentals will perform poorly in 09/10.
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