1. Chapter 10: Elections and Campaigns

2. Types of elections
Primary / Caucus
General
Designed to choose the parties nominee
Example: Romney, Paul, Huntsman, Gingrich, Santorum competing to be Republican nominee for 2012
Types:
Closed: must declare in advance that you are a member of the party to take part in this election
About 40 states (why? )
Open: on primary election day you pick which parties primary you will vote on
8 states
Blanket: can vote in primaries for both parties
Washington & Alaska
Designed to pick the candidate who will actually hold office
Example: Obama vs. Romney
Hon .Clay Henry III of Lajitas , Texas

3. Types of Elections Primary / Caucus
How to get on the ballot in NJ (each state is different)
It is estimated to cost about $50 million to run a successful primary/caucus campaign (Romney spent $110 million)
In the past 3 decades, in almost every case, the candidate who raised the most money during this stage in the process won their party’s nomination
What is a Caucus?
19 states
Why do most states hold primaries?
C’s are too time consuming!!!!
About 10% turnout

4. Primaries / Caucuses So where does that $ go? Organization
Fundraisers , Accountants , Press secretary , Scheduler , Speech writers , TV and internet advertising specialist , Pollsters , Direct mailing company & Social media specialists
Helps to win Iowa Caucus and N. H. Primary 
only 2 candidates in the past 10 elections have lost both and gone on to win their party’s nomination
G. W. Bush in 2000
Clinton in 1992
So what do you have to do to win?
Read: the excerpt from Stormy Weather
What can help a candidate gain momentum?
How long does the “invisible primary” last?
Iowa doesn’t award delegates until weeks after the caucuses, so why are the Iowa caucuses still seen as important?
Why does New Hampshire remain an indicator of who will win the eventual nomination?

5. Primaries / Caucuses Need to motivate voters to turn out for you
Primary turnout low
About 20%
This results in candidates trying to appeal to the base of their party while also looking ahead to general election
Republicans: need to appear conservative
Democrats: need to appear liberal
During the general election candidates generally return to more moderate stances, must remember what you say during primary/ caucus season will be used by your opponent
Can result in “Clothespin voting”

6. Presidential Primaries / Caucuses
When voting in a P/C you are actually selecting delegates who will attend the party’s National Convention to demonstrate support for that candidate.
Much like the electoral college
The Party’s decide the rules, they are not in the Constitution or state law, the party’s can change the rules prior to an election.
Democrats award delegates proportionally in all states
Republicans allow the state to decide if they want a winner take all system or a proportional system
NJ = winner take all

7. Delegates Democrats Republican
Total number of delegates: 4,339 Pledged: 3,537 Unpledged: 802
PLEDGED "PLEO" (Party Leaders and Elected Officials) DELEGATES
Based on % of democratic vote in that state in the past 3 presidential elections
UNPLEDGED "PLEO" DELEGATES (Super delegates occurred after 1980) Primarily Democratic Members of Congress, Governors, and "distinguished party leaders." 802 total.
This equals 15% of pledged delegates
Total Number of Delegates: 2,066 Pledged: 1,907 Unpledged: 159
Each state gets 6 delegates plus 3 for each member in the House
BONUS DELEGATES Each state can earn additional delegates by meeting one or more of the following requirements:
the state cast a majority of its votes for the Republican presidential candidate in the previous presidential election
the state elected Republicans to the U.S. House or Senate, selected a Republican Governor or state legislative majorities
and / or the state holds its presidential primary election after March 15th (this is to discourage states from holding early primaries).

8. General Presidential vs. General Congressional Campaigns
More voters participate
Typically about VEP 60% turnout since 1964
More party turnover
Past 20 elections
Republicans 9 times
Democrats 11 times
Less voter turn-out, especially during midterm elections (non-presidential election years 2002,2006, )
Typically about 36% turnout since 1964
Historically less party turnover
(recent exceptions include 2006 and 2010)
Why?!?
Incumbency advantage
More direct connection to the voter (service to constituents)
Separate themselves from the “mess in Washington”
Sophomore surge: can use perks of office to get elected
How to get on the ballot for the general election in NJ

9. Presidential Elections
Who does the public prefer?
Most candidates have experience in multiple areas listed below

10. Presidential Election
Theme?
A simple ,appealing idea that can be repeated over and over and over and over and over (you get it)
Obama: Forward
Romney: We can’t afford 4 more years
If you are an incumbent, you will invariably have to defend your record
Tone?
Positive?
Build me up
Negative?
Knock them down
Overall theme and campaign: How Barack Obama Won in Lanahan

11. Negative Campaigning
Jefferson and Adams
Daisy
Willy Horton
From Going Dirty in Lanahan: Negative Campaigning

12. Timing?
Start too early and you may go broke, too late and you may not build up enough momentum or name recognition
Targets?
Who are the undecided in this election? How will you sway them?

13. Presidential Elections
What types of issues will you focus on?
Position: rival parties take different stances
Taxation:
Obama : increase taxes on wealthy to help pay down debt
Romney: decrease tax rate for all to help struggling economy
Valence: how closely a party/candidate is connected with a concept
Nixon: associated with a tough stance on crime
Reagan: more associated with a strong economy

14. Presidential Elections
Who is going to be your Vice President?
Need to pick someone who will appeal to a part of the party you may not appeal to “balance the ticket”
Youth / Experience
Regional
Moderate / Conservative or Liberal
Unify party after bitter primary
Classic examples
Kennedy and Johnson
Reagan / G.H.W. Bush
How does Obama /Biden reflect this?
How does Romney / Ryan reflect this?
Classic Anomaly:
Clinton / Gore

15. Presidential Elections
How will you “advertise” your candidate? TV
Debates
Direct Mail
Internet

16. General Election and the Electoral College