1. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Multiscale Analyses of Moisture Transport by the Central Plains Low-Level Jet during IHOP Edward I. Tollerud 1, Brian D. Jamison 2, Fernando Caracena 1, Steven E. Koch 1, Diana L. Bartels 1,Randall S. Collander 2 1 NOAA Research - Forecast Systems Laboratory, Boulder, CO 2 Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere – Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO LIDAR DATA R. Michael Hardesty 3, Brandi J. McCarty 4, Christoph Kiemle 5, and Gerhard Ehret 5 3 NOAA Research - Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, CO 4 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences – University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 5 German Aerospace Center (DLR), Germany

2. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 FSL/FRD IHOP Science Objectives QPF Assessment Design and Compare model runs for sensitivity to input data LLJ Moisture Budget Computations with LLJ research flight data Scales of Moisture Transport by LLJ Qualitative Comparison of Data Analyses

3. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Flight Plans and Data Platforms

4. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 “Perfect storm” scenario 2004 (What we wanted…)

5. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 “Perfect storm” scenario (What we wanted…)

6. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 “Perfect storm” scenario (What we wanted…)

7. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 (What we got…) LAPS Research Analysis Isotachs (kt), 825 hpa 1300 UTC 9 June 2002

8. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 (What we got…)

9. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Scales of Moisture Transport Lidar-Scale Dropsonde-Scale Radiosonde-Scale

10. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Scales of Moisture Transport Lear Drop Times and Locations, Circuits 1 and 2

11. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Scales of Moisture Transport June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along North Flight Leg – v x q, theta

12. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Scales of Moisture Transport June 9 1200 UTC Radiosonde analysis along South Flight Leg – v x q, theta

13. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Falcon drops Circuit one North Leg v x q, theta Scales of Moisture Transport

14. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Lear drops Circuit two North Leg v x q, theta Scales of Moisture Transport

15. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 X

16. X Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux

17. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 X

18. X Platform Intercomparison: Meridional Moisture Flux

19. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 X

20. X X Interplatform comparison: Co-located Falcon and Lear Profiles dt ~ 1h

21. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 V x q profile comparison, circuit 1 to circuit 2 dt ~ 4h X

22. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Meridional Moisture Flux during Circuit 1

23. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Temporal Vs. Interplatform Differences: Zonal Moisture Flux during Circuit 1

24. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain Objectives Determination of significant contributing mechanisms Assessment of unresolved transports: comparison of LIDAR covariances and budget residuals Issues Stationarity Assumption Off-perimeter Budget Terms Surface Fluxes

25. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Moisture Budget for IHOP Domain At a point:  q/  t +  vq   (  q)/  p  R where R=(errors, P, surface flux,etc.) Over a volume:  q/  t +  vq   (  q)/  p  R Term by term:  vq =  v q +  v ’ q ’ Budget domain is 3D box enclosed by data “ curtains ” beneath flight track Compute layer average horizontal flux as  vq dl Domain size and flight patterns are compromise chosen to legitimize assumption of stationarity

26. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Figure: v and q Lear second circuit! X

27. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Impact of Vertical Correlations X

28. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Impact of Within-layer Vertical Correlations X

29. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 1

30. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Temporal Change of Layer Averaged Horizontal Moisture Flux

31. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Computations from Falcon Dropsondes, Circuit 1 Vertically Integrated Moisture Fluxes on Budget Domain Boundary South North

32. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Full 3D Domain Net Moisture Flux, First Falcon Circuit The answer is: -3.3 mm/day What was the question?

33. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 QPF Sensitivity to High-Density Initialization Data Objective 1: Determine impact of IHOP research data (primarily dropsondes) in initialization dataset on LLJ forecast intensity and placement Procedure: Compare two WRF forecasts (with /IHOP research data in LAPS initialization, and without) for 3 June and 9 June LLJ cases) LIDAR usage: Qualitative forecast assessment Status: Operational runs in process; re-acquisition of LAPS initialization datasets required for research runs in process (eg., revised dropsonde data) Objective 2: Assess importance of surface fluxes to LLJ development LIDAR usage: Initialization dataset Status: Questionable

34. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Operational WRFResearch WRF (w/dropsondes) 12 h Precipitation, 13:00 UTC 9 June - 01:00 UTC 10 June 2002

35. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Operational LAPSResearch LAPS (w/dropsondes) Isotachs, north leg, 1700 UTC

36. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 RH, 825 hpa, 1700 UTC Research LAPS (w/dropsondes)Research WRF (w/dropsondes)

37. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Conclusions and Future Efforts Multiscale Structure of the LLJ 1) Several Platforms provide similar picture of LLJ 2) Examine pervasiveness of laminar structures 3) Estimate effects of small (LIDAR-scale) horizontal correlations 4) More detailed determination of temporal development of LLJ

38. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Conclusions and Future Efforts 1) Influence of drops on analyses and forecasts small 2) Confirm with June 3 case 3) Compute model-predicted fluxes, compare research to baseline 4) Compute fluxes through model-domain top 5) Examine model-generated precipitation fields QPF Implications

39. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Lear, Falcon Drop Times and Locations, Circuit 1

40. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 4h forecast 1700 UTC 9 June 2002

41. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Analysis 1700 UTC 9 June 2002

42. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 2

43. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004 Impact of Horizontal Correlations on Layer-averaged Moisture Flux Circuit 3

44. IHOP Workshop – Toulouse – June 2004

45. Data and observations