1. Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa WHAT IS A MANAGEMENT PROCEDURE (MP) / MANAGEMENT STRATEGY EVALUATION (MSE) AND WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?

2. OUTLINE I.What is an MP/MSE? (IWC/CCSBT interpretation) II.Why is it important to implement an MP/ MSE? Feedback control Feedback control III.When should an MP/MSE be implemented? IV.Objectives ( and their relation to reference points) V.An example

3. I. WHAT IS AN MP/MSE? What is a Management Procedure? What is a Management Procedure? An agreed formula, with an agreed set of data inputs, used to calculate a recommendation for a fisheries management measure – typically a TAC What the IOTC Glossary describes as a Harvest Strategy. MSE is the process of developing and agreeing a Management Procedure MSE is the process of developing and agreeing a Management Procedure (At least for our purposes today)

4. II. WHY IS IT IMPORTANT TO IMPLEMENT AN MP/MSE? Because of shortcomings with best- assessment-based management

5. BEST-ASSESSMENT-BASED MANAGEMENT E.g. US Magnuson-Stevens Act with its MSY- related recovery targets “Best Assessment” of resource Catch control law TAC

6. DIFFICULTIES FOR THE BEST- ASSESSMENT-BASED APPROACH Inter-annual best assessment/TAC variation (including MSY-related Reference points) Inter-annual best assessment/TAC variation (including MSY-related Reference points) No consideration of longer term trade-offs (which requires taking account of management responses to future resource monitoring data) No consideration of longer term trade-offs (which requires taking account of management responses to future resource monitoring data) Lengthy haggling Lengthy haggling What if the “best assessment” is wrong? What if the “best assessment” is wrong? Default decision of “no change” Default decision of “no change” Too little too late Too little too late Ecolabeling and other external pressures on RFMOs Ecolabeling and other external pressures on RFMOs

7. BUT WHY IS FISHERIES MANAGEMENT SO DIFFICULT? SUSTAINABLE UTILISATION Pensioner must live off interest What’s my capital? What’s the interest rate? Multiply the two Don’t spend more than that! EASY!!

8. THE SOURCE OF THE DIFFICULTY. FISHERIES HAVE UNCO-OPERATIVE BANK TELLERS They won’t tell you the interest rate, which in any case is highly variable Recruitment fluctuations They will advise your balance only once a year, with a typically +-50% error, and in the wrong currency Surveys (or abundance indices) are typically available annually only, their results have high variance, and their bias is unknown

9. MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES (MSE). MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES (MSE). WHAT NEW DO THEY BRING TO ASSIST SOLVE THE PROBLEM? FEEDBACK CONTROL! Monitor stock changes and adjust management measures (e.g. TACs) accordingly

10. A FINANCIAL ANALOGY $1 000 000 invested at 5% p.a. Each year withdraw $50 000  Investment sustainably maintained at $1 000 000 1 000 000 ton fish stock grows naturally at 5% p.a. Each year catch 50 000 tons  Sustainable exploitation: resource kept at 1 000 000 tons

11. After 5 years, someone MAY have stolen $300 000 from your investment You keep withdrawing $50 000 per year After 5 years, recruitment failure or IUU fishing MAY have reduced abundance by 30% Catches maintained at 50 000 tons per year If this event did occur, resource is rapidly reduced No theft Theft

12. WHY’S THERE ANY PROBLEM? Ask the teller for account balance. If this has fallen to $700 000, reduce annual withdrawal to $35 000  Sustainability maintained. Resource abundance known only through annual surveys or abundance indicies (e.g. CPUE) which have large associated errors BUT The teller will advise balance only once a year with  50% error

13. CAN YOU TELL WHETHER $300 000 WAS STOLEN FROM YOUR ACCOUNT ? In each of the following scenarios shown, the theft occurred in only one of the two cases Can you tell which one? (Equivalently, whether fish abundance was reduced by 30%?)

29. IMPRESSIONS It wasn’t easy to tell It wasn’t easy to tell It needed usually about 20 years of new data It needed usually about 20 years of new data to be certain to be certain By that time, account was almost exhausted By that time, account was almost exhausted (if theft had occurred) (if theft had occurred) By the time the adverse effect of recruitment failure or IUU fishing is detectable, the resource is already heavily depleted By the time the adverse effect of recruitment failure or IUU fishing is detectable, the resource is already heavily depleted

30. THREE STRATEGIES (MPs) I: Withdraw $ 50 000 every year II: Withdraw 5% of the teller-advised balance each year each year III: Withdrawal this year = 80% last year’s withdrawal + 1% teller’s (erroneous) balance withdrawal + 1% teller’s (erroneous) balance Strategy must “work” whether or not theft occurred

31. No theft Theft I II III Annual Withdrawal

32. I II III No theft Theft Balance in Account

33. I II III No theft Theft Annual Withdrawal

34. I II III No theft Theft Balance in Account

35. PERFORMANCE I: Going bankrupt if theft occurred II: Stabilises balance in account, but annual withdrawals too variable withdrawals too variable III: Best of the three – stabilises balance without too much change from year to year without too much change from year to year Formula III automatically corrects for effect of recruitment failure/IUU fishing if it occurred. “Feedback control” (MP basis)

36. SO WHAT EXACTLY IS AN MP ?  Formula for TAC recommendation  Pre-specified inputs to formula

37. But isn’t this the same as the traditional approach ? Almost, but not quite

38. So what’s the difference ? a)Pre-specifications prevent haggling b)Simulation checks that formula works even if the “best” assessment is wrong

39. How is the MP formula chosen from amongst alternative candidates ? a)Compare simulated catch / risk / catch variability trade-offs for alternatives b)Check adequate for plausible variations on “best” assessments

40. SOUTHERN BLUEFIN TUNA EXAMPLE TRADE OFF More catch More recovery Different MP options Catch Biomass Year

41. What are the advantages of the MP approach ? a)Less time haggling of little long term benefit b)Proper evaluation of risk d)Consistent with Precautionary Principle e)Provides framework for interactions with stakeholders, particularly re objectives and trade-offs amongst them f)Use haggling time saved towards more beneficial longer term research c)Sound basis to impose limits on TAC variability

42. What are the disadvantages of the MP approach ? a)Lengthy evaluation time b)Rigid framework (though 5-9 yearly revisions in IWC/CCSBT) BUT Provides default Addresses problems for RFMOs with “no change”

43. When should scientists change the TAC recommendation from a MP? New information / understanding shows actual resource situation is outside range tested New information / understanding shows actual resource situation is outside range tested A MP is like an auto-pilot BUT The real pilot remains to check that nothing unanticipated has occurred (i.e. usually annual routine assessments continue)

44. How should managers react to MP- based scientific recommendations ? a)Treat as default (replacing “no change”) so that necessary action is not delayed b)Require compelling reasons to change i.e. such a decision should not be taken lightly

45. THE MANAGEMENT PROCEDURE APPROACH (MSE).. 1) 1) Specify alternative plausible models of resource and fishery (Simulation or Operating Models – OMs) 2) 2) Fit (condition) these models to data (effectively alternative assessments); pre-specify future data inputs to MP 3) 3) Agree performance measures to quantify the extent to which objectives are attained (more on objectives later) 4) 4) Select amongst candidate MPs for the one showing the “best” trade-offs in performance measures across objectives and different OMs in simulation testing 1 and 2: Scientists responsibility 3 and 4: Scientists and Managers/Stakeholders jointly

46. III. WHEN SHOULD MSE BE IMPLEMENTED? Scenario A A large quantity of non-conflicting data covering a few decades A large quantity of non-conflicting data covering a few decades An agreed assessment giving estimates of high precision An agreed assessment giving estimates of high precision Few serious uncertainties about assessment assumptions Few serious uncertainties about assessment assumptions Little argument about the TAC recommendation to follow from the assessment Little argument about the TAC recommendation to follow from the assessment No urgency to implement MSE ARE YOU IN UTOPIA OR DENIAL ??!!

47. III. WHEN SHOULD MSE BE IMPLEMENTED? Scenario B Few data Few data Perhaps an historical catch series (accuracy questionable) Perhaps an historical catch series (accuracy questionable) No more than a rudimentary: No more than a rudimentary: i) Estimate of abundance in absolute terms; or ii) Very short series of a relative abundance index USE A PRECAUTIONARY DATA-POOR METHOD TO PROVIDE ADVICE Focus first on developing an improved index of relative abundance before considering MSE

48. III. WHEN SHOULD MSE BE IMPLEMENTED? Scenario C (Minimally – do any IO tuna stocks match this profile? ) Historical catches, with some idea of their accuracy Historical catches, with some idea of their accuracy A relative abundance index good and long enough plus sufficient biological information to develop at least a simple assessment A relative abundance index good and long enough plus sufficient biological information to develop at least a simple assessment Nevertheless assessment results that vary considerably depending on assessment (and data) assumptions that are under debate/dispute Nevertheless assessment results that vary considerably depending on assessment (and data) assumptions that are under debate/dispute Reasonable certainty that the abundance index will continue to be available for each coming year Reasonable certainty that the abundance index will continue to be available for each coming year IMPLEMENT MSE

49. ABUNDANCE INDEX/INDICES Indian Ocean tuna populations For which are reasonably long and reliable relative abundance series available? MSE simulation testing needs Not only such series continuing But also the extent of their variability about the true underlying abundance trend

50. SOUTH AFRICAN DEEPWATER HAKE – SOUTH COAST CPUE - DATA

51. SOUTH AFRICAN DEEPWATER HAKE – SOUTH COAST CPUE – MODEL FIT CV = 0.20 autocorrelation = 0.60

52. IV. OBJECTIVES HIGH LEVEL (POLICY) e.g. Conserve the stock Responsibility of policy makers/managers LOWER LEVEL Performance statistics/indicators to provide a basis to quantify objectives e.g. Objective: Maximise probability that stock stays above a ……certain spawning biomass level (LRP) ……Performance statistic: Proportion of years B > 0.2 B 0 Responsibility of scientists (in interaction with managers/stakeholders)

53. Lower Level Objectives and Example of Performance Statistics High catches High catches Total catch over the next 10 years Small chance of reducing resource to low abundance Small chance of reducing resource to low abundance Distribution of lowest biomass over the next ten years Small changes in catch from year to year Small changes in catch from year to year Average annual proportional change in catch These can often surrogate for socio-economic aspects

54. Relation to Reference Points Tune the control parameters of MPs to achieve values of performance statistics that may correspond to the reference points of Best-assessment-based-management Examples LRP: Tune for a 5% probability that the lowest abundance over the next 10 years falls below the biomass limit reference point TRP: Tune so that the median abundance in 10 years time is equal to the biomass target reference point

55. Trade-offs Amongst Objectives High catch High catch Small chance of reducing resource to low level Small chance of reducing resource to low level Small changes in catch from year to year Small changes in catch from year to yearConflicting Find a management procedure which: Provides desired trade-offs Provides desired trade-offs Is (through feedback) reasonably robust in achieving this performance to changes in the operating model (underlying reality) Is (through feedback) reasonably robust in achieving this performance to changes in the operating model (underlying reality) Trade-offs Aim of MSE

56. V: EXAMPLE - SOUTH AFRICAN HAKE OPERATIONAL MP S (OMP S ) Actually two species: M. capensis – shallow-water hake M. paradoxus – deep-water hake

57. Hake Distribution

58. The 2006 Situation - Past Annual Catches TAC for 2006: 150’000 tons

59. Major Uncertainties Natural death rate (“Natural mortality”) Natural death rate (“Natural mortality”) Split of catches between two species Split of catches between two species Shape of offspring-parent relationship (“Stock- recruitment curve”) Shape of offspring-parent relationship (“Stock- recruitment curve”) Recent recruitment levels Recent recruitment levels Results to be shown reflect 24 possible combinations of these factors

60. Past Resource Trends Medians for spawning biomass B sp with full range of values

61. What was the main problem for the industry?

62. What could be done to solve the problem? MAINTAIN CURRENT TAC WSSD: RETURN TO Bmsy BY 2014 IF POSSIBLE

63. CONSEQUENCES What could be done to solve the problem?

64. Trade-Offs Neither solution is acceptable: a) the first soon destroys the resource b) the second leads to severe socio- economic dislocation A biological/socio-economic trade-off is required Objectives and their trade-offs must be agreed, and a way found of achieving them in the face of scientific uncertainties that are only partially resolvable

65. Hake-OMP Data Inputs. CPUE Survey M. paradoxus M. capensis

66. Objectives agreed for OMP-2006 1. Get catch rates up quickly in the short- medium term 2. Get M. paradoxus back to Bmsy over 20 years 3. After likely initial cuts to achieve 1), secure greater TAC stability over time.

67. Projections OMP (Option 1)

72. OMP (Option 1)

73. OMP (Option 2)

74. Perc. annual change in TAC Catch ('000 mt) HAKE MP-2006 APPLICATION

75. HAKE OMP 2010: Final selection OMPf1b: Average annual TAC 132 000t OMPf1b: Average annual TAC 132 000t Max annual incr: 10%; max decr: 5% Max annual incr: 10%; max decr: 5% TAC BIOMASS Median 95% PI 75% PI 50% PI

76. . Perc. annual change in TAC Catch ('000 mt) What’s happened Applying OMP-2010

77. Hake OMP – 2014 Revision Process Update assessments Update assessments Review monitoring data availability Review monitoring data availability Revisit objectives and trade-offs Revisit objectives and trade-offs Modify OMP formulae selection if considered necessary Modify OMP formulae selection if considered necessary Make final selection in September 2014 to apply for the next four years Make final selection in September 2014 to apply for the next four years Implement OMP-2014 to provide 2015 hake TAC recommendation in October 2014 Implement OMP-2014 to provide 2015 hake TAC recommendation in October 2014

78. Thank you for your attention With thanks for assistance to: Andre Punt Rebecca Rademeyer