1. Pekka Nöjd / BACKGROUND INFORMATION: Societas pro Fauna et Flora Fennica Climate Change Symbosium 26.11.2005 House of Sciences (Tieteiden talo), Kirkkokatu 6, Helsinki Kari Mielikäinen, Finnish Forest Research Institute Finnish Forests and Climate Change Finnish Forests and Climate Change Societas pro Fauna et Flora Fennica homepage: http://www.societasfff.fi/http://www.societasfff.fi/ Pekka Nöjd Metsäntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi

2. http://www.societasfff.fi/ Pekka Nöjd Metsäntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi

3. Climate change and Finnish Forests Kari Mielikäinen 25.11.2005 METLA Siberian larch, age 100 000 years +

4. Content of the Talk 1.History of Finnish forests (Ice Age … 1920) 2.Air pollution and forest growth (1980 … 2000) 3.Growth Trends in European Forests 4.Climate Change and Finnish Forests Can we see it? What are the impacts? Uncertainties? What should the scientists do?

5. The history of Finnish forests after the latest Ice Age First pine and birch trees came to Lapland 8000 years ago, Norway spruce 3000 years ago The climate was clearly warmer 5000 years ago Pine was growing north of the present tree line

6. DOMESTIC PROBLEM: The Utilisation of Finnish forests 1500… Slash and burn Tar distillation Dimension cuttings Sustainable forest management 1920… © Metla/Olli Heikinheimo

7. REGIONAL PROBLEM: Impacts of air pollution on European forests  Situation in the 1980´s Sulphur (SO2)  Acid rain Deposition of nitrogen (traffic and agriculture) Deposition of heavy metals ==> In spite of these facts (next two slides)

8. Total increment and drain of Finnish forests 0 20 40 60 80 100 192319301940195019601970198019902000 Mio.m³ Increment Drain © Metla/Erkki Oksanen

9. 10/8/2015 E U R O P E A N F O R E S T I N S T I T U T E Increment and fellings in European forests Sources: years 1950-1990: Kuusela, K. 1994. Forest Resources in Europe. European Forest Institute. Research Report 1. year 2000: UN-ECE/FAO. 2000. Forest Resources of Europe, CIS, North America, Australia, Japan and New Zealand. In exploitable forests 1950-1990 (133 mill. ha in 1990), in forests available for wood supply 2000 (149 mill. ha in 2000) Gross annual increment Net annual increment Annual fellings

10. METSÄNTUTKIMUSLAITOS SKOGSFORSKNINGSINSTITUTET FINNISH FOREST RESEARCH INSTITUTE www.metla.fi LAUCHING OF A PROJECT BY METLA AND UNI FREIBURG IN 1992 ”GROWTH TRENDS IN EUROPEAN FORESTS”  “HAS FOREST (TREE) GROWTH IN EUROPE CHANGED IN A WAY, THAT CANNOT BE EXPLAINED BY CHANGES IN STAND STRUCTURE OR SILVICULTURE?”  Here: Growth trend = long-lasting deviation from expected growth (Tree age and stand density excluded)  ==> 45 forest growth scientist from 12 countries

11. STUDY MATERIALS: OLD DATA FROM: 1. LARGE-AREA INVENTORIES 2. LONG-TERM PLOTS OR EXPERIMENTS 3. UNTOUCHED OLD FORESTS (NATURE RESERVES) © Metla/Arvo Helkiö

12. Growth Trends in European Forests: Conclusions (Spiecker, Mielikäinen, Köhl & Skovsgaard 1996)

13. Possible causes for increasing growth trends in Central Europe Land use history and forest management Natural disturbances –fire, insects, drought, storms –natural variation of the climate Human influence on the environment –Nitrogen deposition  MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR

14. GLOBAL PROBLEM: Climate change in Finland CAN WE ALREADY SEE IT? WHAT ARE THE IMPACTS ON FORESTS? © Metla/Reino Saarnio

15. Annual ring index of Scots pine and July temperature in Sodankylä, Lapland

16. Mean temperature December-March in Sodankylä, Lapland

17. Mean temperature April – May in Sodankylä, Lapland

18. Annual ring index of Sodankylä in a longer time-scale

19. What are the impacts on forest(ry)?

20. The impact of increasing temperature on tree growth in Finland Modeling (Kellomäki 1990´s ) –CO2 + heating in plastic tents + modeling –temperature rise of 4 °C  +30-50 % in growth © Metla/Erkki Oksanen Experimental data (Heikinheimo 1920-2000) –seed origins between Germany and Finnish Lapland –temperature rise of 4 °C  +100 % in growth

21. Impacts on forest management Selection of tree species –Norway spruce, broadleaved trees Harvesting technologies –no frost –> problems with machines Wind damages –changed stand structure (planted spruce) inceasing risks After effects –fungi, insect damages

22. Uncertainties in forecasts Too simple models Variation of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Heat pumps of the oceans (Golf stream) may change Long-term ”unknown” variation of tree growth (Dendrochronology)

23. What should the scientists do? Meteorological observations Analysis of annual rings (yearly basis) Monitoring of tree growth (daily basis) using girth bands Modeling

24. CLIMATE CHANGE CAN WE SEE IT?NOT YET IN FINLAND IS IT COMING?PROCESSES ARE KNOWN IMPACTS ON TREES?GROWTH INCREASE NEGATIVE IMPACTS WHAT TO DO?FIGHT AGAINST THANK YOU! Pekka Nöjd Metsäntutkimuslaitos Skogsforskningsinstitutet Finnish Forest Research Institute www.metla.fi