1. © Crown copyright Met Office Case Study: Real world application of crop model impacts projections

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Outline Overview of impacts and adaptation techniques CASE 1: Seasonal forecasting in Senegal CASE 2: Irrigation in India CASE 3: Crop shifting in southern Australia Summary

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Impacts and Adaptation Techniques On short timescales, some regions benefit from warming (i.e. mid/high latitudes) On longer timescales, all regional projections suggest a decrease in crop yield and agricultural productivity Possible adaptation techniques: A change in variety or species of crop Shift from rain-fed to irrigated crops Use of seasonal forecasts for annual crop management Improved water management Diversify income with other agricultural activities

4. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 1: Using probabilistic seasonal forecasts in Senegal 80% of Sahel population involved in agriculture Ongoing project in Kaffrine, Senegal, within the peanut growing basin Testing use of probabilistic seasonal forecasts for managing climate risks within agricultural sector Training local farmers in the use of scientific data for crop management

5. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 1: Using probabilistic seasonal forecasts in Senegal Process: Selection of farmers provided with July-Sept 2011 seasonal forecast (suggested less rain than 2010) Allowed farmers to make adjustments to crop variety and planting time (i.e. short cycle crop vs. long cycle crop) Results: Farmers that had access to seasonal forecast had improved crop yields vs. those that didn’t Expressed need for finer-scale seasonal climate information Seasonal climate forecasts show considerable potential to improve agricultural management and livelihoods for local farms

6. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India Large altitudinal range allows for wide range of regional crops Due to erratic rainfall during monsoon season, high risk of both waterlogging and severe water stress Two CRM measures now in place: Effective management of irrigation Weather forewarning and dissemination Detailed field experiments have been performed, using various irrigation plans for Kerala coconut growers

7. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India

8. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 2: CRM of plantation crops in Kerala, India Alterations to irrigation practices, combined with access to agricultural advice, show high potential for increasing crop yields in southern India.

9. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 3: CRM through species alteration and regional relocation in Australia Regional rainfall projections highly variable across Australia While southern Australia is projected to become drier, the frequency and intensity of rainfall events is projected to increase in northern regions Combined with ongoing water-policy reform, this has triggered robust CRM strategies in the agricultural sector

10. © Crown copyright Met Office CASE 3: CRM through species alteration and regional relocation in Australia With a shift towards wheat (less profitable than rice), off- farm activities will be required to sustain a reasonable income Potential CRM strategy: relocate rice production to regions with plenty of water, such as northern Australia Example of where adaptations have been made, but they will not be enough to offset the risks and impacts of climate change Due to increased water stress, farmers in S. Australia have shifted from rice to wheat, but a regional shift in rice crops could be necessary for future sustainability.

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Summary Without CRM techniques, crop yields and agricultural productivity are projected to strongly decrease in the next century Some adaptation techniques are already being put to use (i.e. seasonal forecasts in Senegal, irrigation practices in India) Other regions will require more robust CRM activities, such as the relocation of entire cropping activities to more suitable conditions (i.e. rice production in Australia)

12. © Crown copyright Met Office Thanks for listening!