1. California Energy Commission New Motor Vehicle Board 9 th Industry Roundtable Sacramento, California March 21, 2012 Tim Olson Senior Transportation Advisor California Energy Commission tolson@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-4528

2. California Energy Commission California Crude Oil Imports

3. California Energy Commission California Fuel Demand

4. California Energy Commission California Gasoline Fuel Price Forecast

5. California Energy Commission California Diesel and Biodiesel Fuel Price Forecasts (2008 cents per gallon)

6. California Energy Commission Other Driving Factors/Trends Natural Gas Supply Increase Renewable Portfolio Standard – Electricity Supply Federal Alternative Fuels Incentives California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, AB 32 Climate Change Law and Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate Renewable Fuels Standard II

7. California Energy Commission Key Policy Objectives ObjectivesGoals and Milestones GHG ReductionReduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 Petroleum ReductionReduce petroleum fuel use to 15% below 2003 levels by 2020 Alternative and Renewable Fuel Use Increase alternative and renewable fuel use to 11% of on-road and off- road fuel demand by 2012, 13% by 2017 and 26% by 2022 In-State Biofuels Production Produce in California 20% of biofuels used in state by 2010, 40% by 2020, and 75% by 2050 7

8. California Energy Commission

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10. Investment Plan Analysis 10 Electric drive/ hydrogen Advanced biofuels Natural gas/ propane/ renewable diesel Fuel economy Contribution of each fuel/technology category to reducing GHG emissions through 2050 MMT CO2e

11. California Energy Commission Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EPA, and Energy Commission analysis. U.S. Ethanol Use and RFS Obligations 1993-2022

12. California Energy Commission California Light Duty Vehicle Counts (2008 ) Vehicle Type  Gasoline  Diesel  Hybrid  Flexible Fuel Vehicle  Electric  Natural Gas  Hydrogen Number & Growth Rate (2001-2008)  25.6 Million(1.7%)  464,000(5.6%)  333, 000(75%)  382,000(22%)  14, 600(26%)  24, 800(35%)  190(N/A )

13. California Energy Commission Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles 2008 Distribution 952,000 Trucks and Buses On Road Diesel 60% Gasoline 38.5% Natural Gas 1% Propane, Electric, Hydrogen, Hybrids and Others <1%

14. California Energy Commission PEV Market Penetration By 2020 (California, U.S. and Global Market Studies) Goldman Sachs – 2% (Global) NRDC – 3.2% (U.S.) CARB – 5% (CA) Boston Consulting Moderate – 5.2% (U.S.) HIS Global Insight – 5.8% (Global) Deutsche Bank – 6.6% (U.S.) McKinsey & Co – 8% (Global) Boston Consulting High – 10% (U.S.) Roland Berger – 12.9% (U.S.) International Energy Agency – 14% (Global)

15. California Energy Commission Waste Stream Feedstocks CategoryGross Potential (MM BDT/yr) Technical Potential (MM BDT/yr) BioFuel Potential (gal. ethanol) BioGas Potential (billion ft 3 ) BioGas Potential (million GGE) Agricultural Residues 10.45.1~400 million Dairies & Feedlots 10.23.914.6120 Forest Residues26.814.3~1 billion Municipal Solid Waste 35.69.679 (From gross) 647 Wastewater Treatment Plants 16 (From gross) 131 Totals8332.61.4 billion 110898 Source: California Biomass Collaborative, 2008.

16. California Energy Commission Progress Toward Achieving 26% Alternative Fuel/Vehicle Goal in 2022  Renewable Fuel Standard II – California Fair Share Ethanol Use by 2020:  12% Market Penetration – Low Growth Case, Or  17% Market Penetration – High Growth Case  440,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020 (1%)  Natural Gas MD/HD Market Penetration by 2020 (3%)  Other Alternative Fuels (? %)

17. California Energy Commission Program Objectives Transform California’s fuel and vehicle types to help attain the state’s climate change, energy security and air quality goals Provide immediate GHG, petroleum reduction and criteria pollutant benefits and the impetus for the long-term transition to a clean, low-carbon fuel market Create new projects, products and businesses to promote economic development 17

18. California Energy Commission Funding Allocation Summary FYs 2008-09 and 2009-10 Fuel Technology Category Fuel Production Fuel Storage and Blending Fueling Stations Vehicle Rebates and Prototype Development Manufacturin g Plants TOTAL Electric Drive $12 Million$25 Million$9 Million$46 Million Hydrogen$40 Million Ethanol$7 Million$5 Million$ 12 Million Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel $2 Million$ 4 Million$ 6 Million Natural Gas$10 Million$ 8 Million$25 Million$43 Million Propane$ 2 Million Total GHG Reduction Categories $ 19 Million$ 4 Million$ 65 Million$ 52 Million$ 9 Million$ 149 Million TOTAL with $27 Million for NON GHG Categories$176 Million

19. California Energy Commission 19 Fuel Area Existing 2009-2010 Baseline Levels Additions from ARFVT Program Funding Percent Increase Alternative Fueling Infrastructure Electric1,270 charging stations 4,375 charging stations (public and residential) 344% E8539 fueling stations85 fueling stations218% Natural Gas443 fueling stations20 stations5% Hydrogen 6 public fueling stations (plus 5 more under construction) 11 fueling stations 100% Alternative Fuel Vehicles Electric Cars13,2683793% Electric Trucks1,40916011% Natural Gas Trucks13,9958986% ARFVT Program Funding Impact on Alternative Fueling Stations and Alternative Vehicle Deployment in California Source: Extrapolated from 2009 DMV data, plus actual deployment data. Electric truck and natural gas trucks extrapolated from 2009 data.

20. California Energy Commission 20 Low CaseHigh Case Petroleum Fuel Displaced Per Year by 2020375 Million Gallons1.18 Billion Gallons GHG Emission Reduction Per Year by 2020 2.5 Million Metric Tonnes 9.3 Million Metric Tonnes Criteria Air Pollution Reduction Per Year by 2020 10,855 Metric Tonnes 24,371 Metric Tonnes Non-ARFVT Program Funding Leveraged$375.5 Million Short-Term and Long-Term Jobs Created by Projects Funded by ARFVT Program 5,394 Summary of Anticipated Benefits for Fuels and Vehicles Supported by the ARFVT Program

21. California Energy Commission AB 118 Program Funding Covering First Four Years Alternative Fuel Infrastructure - $108 Million Vehicle and Component Part Manufacturing - $37 Million Medium and Heavy Duty Engine and Vehicle Prototypes and Demonstrations - $35 Million Biofuel Production Incentives - $90 Million Propane and Natural Gas Vehicle Deployment - $39 Million Other Programs - $41 Million Spring 2012 Solicitations Alternative Fuel Infrastructure ($30 Million) Biofuel Production($37 Million) Manufacturing Incentives $10 Million) Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Buydown Incentive (18 Million MD/HD Vehicle Demos (9 Million Electric Vehicle Regional Planning Workforce Training ($ 8 Million)

22. California Energy Commission California’s Transition to Diversified Transportation Fuels and Vehicles By 2020 Private Investment of $100 Billion - $200 Billion State of California Incentives ($100 Million - $200 Million Per Year until 2020) and Full Implementation of LCFS and AB 32 Extension of Existing Federal Tax Credits and Incentives Advanced Biofuels – 50 Projects in California and/or Breakthrough in Long Chain Biohydrocarbons 440,000 Electric Vehicles in California/1.4 Million in 2025 Medium Duty/Heavy Duty Transition to Non Petroleum Platform Electric Hybrid (Natural Gas, Electric Hybrid and Hydraulic Electric, Biofuel) and All Electric Advances in HCCI and Merging of Other Engine Technologies

23. California Energy Commission The AB 118 Program Approximately $100 Million per year Development, production, manufacture, and deployment of alternative and renewable fuels, advanced vehicles, and vehicle efficiency Workforce training Education and outreach Environmental, market and technology assessments 23