1. Wetland Drying and Wildlife Brad Griffith & Jennifer Roach U.S. Geological Survey and University of Alaska Fairbanks Photo by May-Le Ng

2. Annual Rates of Change in Lake Size 1985-2009 23,000 lakes: 89% Stable/Fluctuating 8% Drying 3% Increasing

3. YUKON FLATS: CENTRAL Decreasing Trend YUKON FLATS: WEST Increasing Trend YUKON FLATS: EAST Negligible Trend Clustering of Increasing and Decreasing lakes Roach et al. 2013 Global Change Biol. 19: 2276-2284

4. Among-Lake Heterogeneity Shrinking Lake Expanding Lake 8/5/19528/30/2008

5. Why is this Happening? Drainage Lack of recharge Lakes more likely to dry if: Within a burned area On coarse, well-drained soils Farther from rivers and streams Implies: Permafrost degradation

6. What are Implications for Wildlife? Photo by May-Le Ng

7. Waterfowl Species Richness Based on current Landscape Metrics Lake size most influential in 2010

8. 1986 2050 Roach & Griffith 2015 CENTRAL WEST EAST +2% -26% -4% Species Richness

9. Projections: 1986- 2050 11% decline in average number of species per lake Heterogeneity among regions and lakes Regions:-26% to +4% Lakes:-70% to +214% Most vulnerable species are the rare ones on the edges of their ranges

10. Implications: Alaskan National Wildlife Refuges – 16 refuges; 77 million acres; 81% of entire National Wildlife Refuge System These Refuges support internationally migratory waterfowl These waterfowl provide ecosystem services at multiple scales Climate change in Alaska is expressed throughout North America 50% 25% 10%