1. BIO-FUELS Guilherme Leite da Silva Dias Joaquim José Martins Guilhoto Department of Economics, FEA University of São Paulo

2. Unsustainable growth cycle?

7. A oferta de energia cresceu vinte vezes entre 1850 e 2000.Combustíveis fósseis representavam 80 por cento do total em 2000 (Holdren,2007) Gás Petróleo Carvão Nuclear Hídrica Biomassa Biofuels & Food

12. Is there a common ground for biofuels ? Global Warming Rising Food Costs Energy Crisis …different answers from different countries …..

13. How much should be paid for the raw material of a bio-fuel? Answer depends on the country`s liquid fuel price policy

14. July 2007, in Germany: Pump average price of diesel was US$ 1,62 per liter (current exchange rate) Assuming that the highest share for vegetable oil cost is 72% of pump price in order to warrant a good profit for industry and retailer, Highest price paid for soybean oil should be US$ 1,27 per kg. (0,92 kg of vegetable oil for 1 liter of biodiesel). US$ 1270 per metric ton of vegetable oil is not far from the future price in CBOT soon after the northern hemisphere harvest. How much should be paid for the raw material of a bio-fuel?

15. Source of Data OECD Input-Output Matrices

16. Countries & Years Argentina - 1997 Brazil - 2000 China - 2000 India – 1998/99 USA - 2000 France - 2000 Germany - 2000 Japan - 2000

17. Sectors

19. Imports X Domestic Output

20. Value Added

21. Total Output

22. Value Added & Total Output

23. Output Multipliers

34. Pure Linkages

35. Coke, Ref. Petroleum & Nuclear Fuel

36. Energy in Final Demand

37. Energy in Intermediate Consumption

38. Energy in Total Output

39. Food in Final Demand

40. Food in Intermediate Consumption

41. Food in Total Output

42. Transport in Final Demand

43. Transport in Intermediate Consumption

44. Transport in Total Output

45. Disposable Domestic Value Added

46. Value Added Relations

48. International Trade Bilateral Trade Agreements, seems to be more adequate than a multilateral approach.

49. Final Comments