1. The Expanding European Union A Continental Power Graham Avery National Centre for Research on Europe University of Canterbury, NZ 12 May 2006

2. Summary Why has EU enlarged so often? Recent expansion : from 15 to 25 –The process –The results Future expansion : what limits? –Prospective members –Possible members –Unsolved problems of expansion Why is EU enlargement interesting & important

3. Why has EU enlarged ? Success of European method of integration: magnetic attraction Globalisation: small countries in big world Reunification of continent after Cold War Extending prosperity & security EU’s enlargement strategy –reactive, not proactive

4. Previous expansions From 6 to 15 First round (1973) –United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark Southern round (1981, 1986) –Greece, Portugal, Spain EFTA round (1995) –Austria, Sweden, Finland

5. Recent expansion From 15 to 25 (2004) Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta Hesitations of existing members Conditions (Copenhagen 1993) Long preparation for membership Complex accession negotiations Conditionality: wonderful leverage Differentiation: tough love

6. Results Population + 20%, economy + 5% –Not a dramatic increase From 15 to 25 actors –A quantum leap Effects on EU policies –Agricultural policy –Cohesion policy –Budget

7. Effects on EU foreign policy Relations with USA, Russia Creation of European Neighbourhood Policy –Coverage: Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt Israel, Jordan, Palestine Authority, Syria Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Russia (nyet) plus Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia –Aims & instruments Encircle EU with a ‘ring of friends’ ‘More than partnership, less than membership’ Action plans

8. Future expansion Prospective members Bulgaria & Romania –2007 or 2008 Western Balkans –Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Albania Turkey –the big question The forgotten enlargement –Norway, Iceland, Switzerland

9. ‘An important reason for further enlargements on strategic grounds (is that) the Union has no other equally effective foreign policy tool to shape its unstable environment. In other words, it can hardly do without further enlargements’ Jan Zielonka, Europe as Empire, 2006

10. Possible members A long list … Where are the EU’s final frontiers? Is Europe in the heart, or on the map? Should we fix the limits now? Unsolved problems of expansion: –Neighbourhood policy : how to provide security & prosperity without EU membership –Governance : how to ensure that widening does not weaken EU

11. ‘The problem is to reconcile our tradition of national sovereignty and democratic self-government with our attempt to create a system of continental scale, so as to achieve goals which go beyond the power of the nation state. The basic dilemma for the EU is to reconcile the expansion required for its economic efficiency, its security, and its external power with a sense of solidarity and legitimacy among its multinational citizens’ Dominic Lieven, The Russian Empire and its Rivals, 2002

12. Why EU enlargement is interesting for European studies Systematically interrogative –What ? How ? Widening vs. deepening Existential in nature –Not foreign policy Transformative in character –Soft power at work Institutionally illuminating –Intergovernmental process, but … Ongoing –An unfinished journey

13. Why EU enlargement is important for New Zealand Europe is an important partner of NZ –Economically : for bilateral & multilateral trade –Politically : shared values & interests EU now operates on a continental scale NZ can access new member countries Economic effects of enlargement –Expands market, drives growth in EU Political effects of enlargement –Reconfigures EU’s role as actor in world affairs with or without the Constitutional Treaty

14. My bibliography The Commission’s Perspective on the EFTA Accession Negotiations, Sussex European Institute Working Paper no. 12, 1995 Avery G. & Cameron F., The Enlargement of the European Union, Sheffield Academic Press, 1998 Chapter on ‘Enlargement Negotiations’ in Cameron F., The Future of Europe: Integration and Enlargement, Routledge, 2004 Chapter on ‘Enlargement & Wider Europe’ in Bomberg E. & Stubb A, The EU: How Does It Work?, Oxford University Press, 2 nd ed. forthcoming

15. The Expanding European Union A Continental Power Graham Avery National Centre for Research on Europe University of Canterbury, NZ 12 May 2006