1. Commercial Sector Update Conservation Resources Advisory Committee July 24, 2002

2. CRAC July 24, 20022 Three Things Today Autopsy of 1995 Commercial Forecast Scale Code and Standard Adjustments Commercial Building Stock Assessment –(The art previously known as son of PNNonRES)

3. CRAC July 24, 20023 THING 1: Autopsy of the 1995 Forecast Morlan’s new draft is based on growth rates from 1995 commercial forecast 1995 forecast has declining kWh/emp Historical data shows flat kWh/emp Need to reconcile: Size of conservation potential linked to forecast loads –Two-thirds of potential in New/Renovation

4. CRAC July 24, 20024 Historical

5. CRAC July 24, 20025 Forecast

6. CRAC July 24, 20026 No major shifts in bldg type 1995 -2015

7. CRAC July 24, 20027 Significant changes in electric share for some end uses

8. CRAC July 24, 20028 Space Heating a Key Driver

9. CRAC July 24, 20029 Early 1990s turning point for heating

10. CRAC July 24, 200210 But, intensity of electric heating is relatively constant

11. CRAC July 24, 200211 Autopsy Hypothesis Might have been the fuel choice logic Fuel choice logic driven by relative cost, both capital and fuel, of end-use systems So test sensitivity to fuel cost

12. CRAC July 24, 200212 Test: Increase relative gas and oil cost

13. CRAC July 24, 200213 Space heating choice is sensitive to price

14. CRAC July 24, 200214 Modest difference in total use 500 MWa in 18 years AAGR 1.66% versus 1.18%

15. CRAC July 24, 200215 Next Steps CRAC Reaction Take to Demand Forecast Advisory Review Survey Data for fuel trends –Elec SH unchanged 1988-1994 (52%), but Oil & Other switched to Gas in one survey Review fuel price forecasts Review FW Dodge data on new floor additions

16. CRAC July 24, 200216 THING 2: Scale the impact of Code and Standard Changes (PRELIMINARY DRAFT) Back-of-envelope estimates in 2015 –Idaho: 3 - 5 MWa –Washington: 15 – 20 MWa –Seattle: 5 – 7 MWa –Federal Ballast Standard: 15 MWa Total 38 – 47 MWa 2015 Commercial load: 5780 MWa 2015 New/Ren potential in 1995 plan: –About 310 MWa at 30 mills/kWh

17. CRAC July 24, 200217 Idaho Prototype analysis by Mike Kennedy Used Alliance New Building Survey for baseline data on “as built” Calculated kWh/sf reductions by end use & building type Applied to Idaho share of new floor space & regional fuel shares

18. CRAC July 24, 200218 Idaho: Major impact of new code (kWh/sf) HVAC AuxiliaryAbout -8%, all Types Electric Space HeatAbout -10% Large Office & Small Retail CoolingAbout -20% Retail About -20% Grocery About -3% Offices LightingAbout -3% Retail

19. CRAC July 24, 200219 Washington Estimated load of new buildings 2002-2015 Estimated share in WA and Seattle by building type from 1995 forecast & census Estimated -4% over practice from WA code upgrade Estimated -10% over practice from Seattle code upgrades

20. CRAC July 24, 200220 Federal Ballast Standard Based on regional share of annual US markets (30 million fixtures plus 6 million ballast replacements) 36 kWh per ballast per year savings adjusted for current US share of electronic ballasts Fixture replacement savings discounted to 20% due to local codes and standards Tier 1 (fixtures)= 10 MWa, Tier 2 = 5 MWa

21. CRAC July 24, 200221 THING 3: Commercial Building Stock Assessment (Son of PNNonRES) Selected Xenergy as contractor Kick-Off meeting last week First Issue is sample frame –Need 75% response rate to get a decent sample from revisit of PNNonRES –Considering Dun & Bradstreet Sample frame instead of PNNonRES