1. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPAG DPFS MEETING OF EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG- RANGE FORECASTING BEIJING, CHINA, 7-10 APRIL 2008 CBS-OPAG/DPFS/ET- ELRF/Doc.2.1(1) (25.I.2008) _______ ENGLISH ONLY

2. PROVISIONAL AGENDA 1.OPENING OF THE MEETING 2.ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETIN 2.1 Adoption of the agenda 2.2 Other organizational questions 3. EXCHANGE OF LONG-RANGE FORECASTS (LRF) - Between GPCs - Needs of RCCs - Needs of NMHSs - Refine procedures. 4. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LRF (MME LRF) - Defining new standard products and formats, model output, forecast skill - Defining terms and conditions for exchange - Role of some GPCs and Lead-Centre for MME LRF (recommendations to CBS).

3. 5. REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES (RCCs) - Proposal for minimum set of functions and services required of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) including relations with GPCs - Proposals for updates to the Manual on the GDPFS (Volume I) for official designation of RCCs. 6. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS (ERF) - Specific needs related to ERF for products exchange or services 7. VERIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ERF AND LRF - Need for specific scores for ERF. - Need for improvement of the Standard Verification System for LRF especially in developing areas such as multi-model ensembles. - Provision of ERF and LRF verification scores and related information for use by NMHSs and RCCs. 8. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING

4. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPAG DPFS MEETING OF EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING BEIJING, CHINA, 7-10 APRIL 2008 CBS-OPAG/DPFS/ET- ELRF/Inf (1) (10.III.2008) _______ ENGLISH ONLY

5. PROVISIONAL DOCUMENTS PLAN (10/03/2008) (Note: Documents in bold are done) Item TitleDocument no. Author 1.OPENING OF THE MEETING 2.ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING 2.1Adoption of the agenda Explanatory memorandum Doc. 2.1(1) Doc. 2.1(2) Secretariat 2.2Other organizational questions 3.EXCHANGE OF LONG-RANGE FORECAST S (LRF) 3.1Exchange of productsDoc. 3.1(1)Secretariat 3.2Recognition of GPCsDoc. 3.2(1)Secretariat Doc. 3.2(2)Dr Vladimir KRYZHOV Doc. 3.2(3)Dr Willem LANDMAN 3.3Status, development, specific needs of GPCsDoc. 3.3(n)Any contributor? 3.4Needs of RCCsDoc. 3.4(1) Doc. 3.4(2) Doc. 3.4(3) Secretariat Dr D.S. PAI for New- Delhi Others?

6. 4.MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LRF (MME LR F) 4.1Conclusions and recommendations of the last Workshop on Lead Centre for LRF MME (LC-LRFMME) in Busan in September 2007 Doc. 4.1(1)Secretariat 4.2Reports on the status of development of the LC- LRFMME Doc. 4.2(1) Doc. 4.2(2) Dr Arun KUMAR Dr Won-Tae YUN 4.3Defining new standard products and formats, mod el output, forecast skill 4.4Defining terms and conditions for exchange 4.5Proposals for inclusion of role of GPCs and Lead- Centre for MME LRF in WMO Manual on G DPFS (recommendations to CBS). Doc. 4.5(1)Secretariat 5.5.REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES (RCCs) 5.1Proposal for minimum set of functions and service s required of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) including relations with GPCs Doc. 5.1(1) Doc. 5.1(2) Doc. 5.1(3) Doc. 5.1(n) Beijing Representative Mr Takayuki TOKUHIRO Dr D.S. PAI for New- Delhi Others? 5.2Proposals for updates to the Manual on the GDPF S (Volume I) for official designation of RCCs. Doc. 5.2(1)Secretariat

7. 6.EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS (ERF) Status and specific needs related to ERF for produ cts exchange or services Doc. 6(1) Doc. 6(n) Dr Laura FERRANTI Others? 7.VERIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ERF AND L RF 7.1Need for specific scores for ERFDoc. 7.1(1) Doc. 7.1(n) Dr Laura FERRANTI Others? 7.2Need for improvement of the Standard Verification System for LRF especially in developing areas such as multi-model ensembles Doc. 7.2(1)Dr Won-Tae YUN 7.3Provision of ERF and LRF verification scores and related information for use by NMHSs and RC Cs 7.4Status of Lead Centre for SVS LRFDoc. 8(1) Doc. 8(2) Mr Normand GAGNON Dr David JONES 7.5Adjustments, if necessary of the tasks of the LC-S VSLRF, in the view of ERF and MME

8. WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPAG DPFS MEETING OF EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG- RANGE FORECASTING BEIJING, CHINA, 7-10 APRIL 2008 CBS-OPAG/DPFS/ET- ELRF/Doc.2.1(2) (25.II.2008) _______ ENGLISH ONLY

9. EXPLANATORY MEMORANDUM TO THE PROVISIONAL AGENDA 1. OPENING OF THE MEETING - The meeting of the Expert Team on Extended and Long-Range Forecasting of the CBS OPAG on DPFS will be held at China Meteorological Administration in Beijing from 7 to 10 April 2008. The meeting will commence on Monday 7 April at 9.00 a.m. 2. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING 2.1 Adoption of the agenda The Team will be invited to consider the provisional agenda with a view to its adoption. 2.2 Other organizational questions The Team will be informed by the host on local arrangements and will agree on details concerning the organization of its work including working hours.

10. 3. EXCHANGE OF LONG-RANGE FORECAST (LRF) The exchange of products and data between GPCs will be reviewed, and any need will be expressed and discussed (however, the exchange for LRF MME will be specifically considered in chapter 4). Any special statements, new developments or needs of GPCs will be considered. The proposals for recognition of more GPCs will be examined and recommendations will be proposed for CBS XIVth. The needs of NMCs and then of RCCs will be reviewed by the Team, in particular: - Relative to products (e.g. access to boundary conditions for downscaling) - Relative to training Any necessary refinement of procedures for exchange (e.g. content, timing), will be discussed and recommendations for CBS will be proposed if necessary. 4. MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LRF (MME LRF) The exchange of products and data between GPCs, needed for building LRF MME will be reviewed. If necessary, new standard products and formats will be defined. Terms a nd conditions for exchange will be reviewed (e.g. content, timing, embargo). In particula r the conclusions and recommendations of the last Workshop on Lead Centre for LRF M ME (LC-LRFMME) in Busan in September 2007 will be reviewed. Reports on the status of development of the LC-LRFMME will be provided. Then the Team will develop the ap propriate recommendations to CBS related to this field in particular for the NCEP/KMA L C-LRFMME, and appropriate updates to the WMO Manual on GDPFS.

11. 5. REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTRES (RCCs) The conclusion and recommendations of the Inter-Commissions (CCL and CBS) Meetin g of Experts in January 2008 will be reviewed with the proposal for minimum set of functi ons and services required of Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) including relations with GPCs. The Proposals for updates to the Manual on the GDPFS (Volume I) for official de signation of RCCs will be examined by the Team for recommendations to CBS. 6. EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS (ERF) The Team will consider the specific needs related to ERF for products exchange or servi ces, and develop appropriate recommendations if necessary. 7. VERIFICATION SYSTEMS FOR ERF AND LRF The Team will consider: a. Need for specific scores for ERF. b. Need for improvement of the Standard Verification System for LRF (SVS LRF) especially in developing areas such as multi-model ensembles. c. Provision of ERF and LRF verification scores and related information for use by NMHSs and RCCs. d. Adjustments, if necessary of the tasks of the Lead Centre for SVS LRF, in t he view of MME and ERF. The Team will develop any appropriate recommendation related to verification of ERF and LRF for CBS.