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2011 Census Results Making Sense of the Numbers Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West.

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Presentation on theme: "2011 Census Results Making Sense of the Numbers Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West."— Presentation transcript:

1 2011 Census Results Making Sense of the Numbers Godfrey St. Bernard Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West Indies St. Augustine Trinidad and Tobago Email: godfrey.stbernard@sta.uwi.edu or gstbiser@gmail.comgodfrey.stbernard@sta.uwi.edu SALISES Forum Institute of International Relations Conference Room The University of the West Indies St. Augustine March 5 th 2013

2 Discussion Points Why do a Population Census? Census as a statistical exercise – Statistics as a science for determining the magnitude of unknown counts, other descriptive measures and patterns of relationship – Never Accurate but focus is on precision – Methodological rigour and invoking critical sensibilities Discussing emergent population trends – Population Growth – Sex Composition – Ethnicity – Religious Affiliation

3 Census YearDuration of the intercensal period (in years) Trinidad & Tobago Population Change% ChangeExponential Growth Rate 1851x82978xxx 186110.0998481687020.31.9 187110.01266922684426.92.4 188110.01711794448735.13.0 189110.02183814720227.62.4 190110.02738995551825.42.3 19119.93335525965321.82.0 192110.1365913323619.70.9 193110.04127834687012.81.2 194615.055797014518735.22.0 196014.082795726998748.42.8 197010.093107110311412.51.2 198010.1107979114872016.01.5 199010.0121373313394212.41.2 200010.11262366486334.00.4 201110.61328019656535.20.5

4 Assumptions 8 June 2000 8 June 2001 8 June 2005 8 June 2010 8 June 2015 8 June 2020 8 June 2025 High1262366126786612857181312259134717413793311398947 Constant1262366126461312661471260585124729412195731174665 Low1262366126461312667071258745123753111988941143457 Medium1262366126461012684391268642126543012526541228675 Medium- High 1262366126786612846521300288131088813095891294347 Medium- Medium 1262366126786612843031298648130692013021961282384 Medium- Low 1262366126461312664681259377124305112110671161638 Projected Population Characteristics: Trinidad and Tobago, Selected Census Years

5 Ethnic Group Population Size 2011 Percentage Distribution 2011 Proportion <15 Proportion 65+ Aging Index Trinidad and Tobago 20.6944 African45253634.219.610.252 Caucasian78320.61221175 Chinese40030.312.121174 East Indian46852435.416.58.552 Indigenous13940.114.314.6102 Mixed30186622.829.17.124 Portuguese8370.14.932.5663 Syrian/Lebanese10290.112.617.473 Other22800.217.612.873 Not Stated822466.220.3839

6 Sex Ratio 2011200019901980 Trinidad & Tobago All Ages100.7100.699.899.9 0 - 4103.4102.7101.8103.1 5 - 9103.2102.6101.8102.2 10 - 14104.5102.1102.5100.4 15 - 19102.1101.6103.7100.9 20 - 24101.0103.2100.1101.3 25 - 29101.7102.7100.4100.6 30 - 34104.399.999.4102.6 35 - 39102.6100.1100.599.8 40 - 44101.9101.3102.599.6 45 - 49102.6103.498.895.5 50 - 54101.8104.598.297.2 55 - 59100.699.895.3105.0 60 - 64102.296.396.0105.4 65 - 6993.691.793.088.5 70 - 7488.490.493.986.3 75 - 7981.087.684.874.4 80 +67.271.662.958.7

7 Country/Region Population Size 2000 Population Size 2011 Intercensal Growth 2000-2010 Percent 65+ 2011 Census Trinidad and Tobago126236613280195.29 City of Port of Spain4903137074-24.414.8 City of San Fernando5541948838-11.912.2 Borough of Arima32278336064.19.8 Borough of Chaguanas674338351623.96.8 Borough of Point Fortin19056202356.28.9 Couva/Tabaquite/Talparo1627791784109.67.3 Diego Martin105720102957-2.612.3 Mayaro/Rio Claro321433565010.97.4 Penal/Debe83609893926.98.1 Princes Town9194710237511.37.9 San Juan/Laventille1572951572580.09.4 Sangre Grande656807576615.47.7 Siparia81917869496.19.2 Tunapuna/Piarco2039752151195.58.7 Tobago540846087412.69.3

8 YearNumber of Live Births 194016,535 195521,616 195023,722 195530,216 196032,858 Number of Live Births Trinidad and Tobago Pre-Independence Era

9 YearNumber of Live Births 196234,107 196531,953 197025,151 197525,673 198029,869 198533,719 199023,960 199519,258 200018,160 200518,090 200819,888 Number of Live Births Trinidad and Tobago Pre-Independence Era

10 YearTotal Fertility Rate 1959-19615.1 1969-19713.8 20081.6 Total Fertility Rates – Trinidad and Tobago 1959-1961, 1969-1971 and 2008

11 Females 15-49 years – Percentage Childless by Five-Year Age Group and Years of Schooling Age GroupAll FemalesUnder 7 years7-12 years12 or more years 15-49 years47.631.044.053.5 15-19 years93.593.393.294.9 20-24 years70.447.869.381.4 25-29 years46.028.637.761.6 30-34 years29.326.028.832.5 35-39 years20.418.817.127.2 40-44 years15.211.015.619.6 45-49 years12.84.99.622.6

12 Females 15-49 years – Percentage Childless by Five-Year Age Group and Socio-Economic Status Age Group All Females Quintile I Quintile II Quintile III Quintile IV Quintile V 15-49 yrs47.641.740.543.245.051.2 15-19 yrs93.592.294.195.591.894.1 20-24 yrs70.458.265.572.079.580.0 25-29 yrs46.035.638.341.048.467.9 30-34 yrs29.323.224.722.233.343.7 35-39 yrs20.46.713.022.526.531.5 40-44 yrs15.25.112.713.415.429.0 45-49 yrs12.84.33.510.010.421.4

13 Females 15-49 years – Percentage Ever Having at Least 5 Live Born Children by Five-Year Age Group and Years of Schooling Age GroupAll FemalesUnder 7 years7-12 years12 or more years 15-49 years3.16.63.02.4 15-19 years1.41.71.31.7 20-24 years0.7-1.30.4 25-29 years1.03.10.80.4 30-34 years2.24.02.60.6 35-39 years5.511.63.64.3 40-44 years7.610.46.28.0 45-49 years8.811.77.25.1

14 Females 15-49 years – Percentage Ever Having at least 5 Live Born Children by Five-Year Age Group and Socio-Economic Status Age Group All Females Quintile I Quintile II Quintile III Quintile IV Quintile V 15-49 yrs3.17.33.82.91.81.9 15-19 yrs1.40.50.71.33.62.0 20-24 yrs0.7-2.0--1.7 25-29 yrs1.0-1.40.92.4- 30-34 yrs2.25.22.23.7-- 35-39 yrs5.518.12.04.20.92.7 40-44 yrs7.619.09.35.02.44.7 45-49 yrs8.822.911.87.03.82.1

15 THANK YOU

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