1. On the Way to Europe 2020: The Bologna Process in Need of a New Sex Appeal? Sarajevo, 11 May 2012 Ulrich Teichler International Centre for Higher Education Research Kassel (INCHER-Kassel) University of Kassel, Germany Email: teichler@incher.uni-kassel.de

2. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 2 Rapid Sequence of Priority Themes in Higher Education Policy  Major examples: Expansion of higher education and economic growth, HE and equality, non- university higher education, practice-orientation, mobility and internationalisation, evaluation and quality improvement, the managerial university, global competition and “world-class university”, Bologna Process  At least nine major policy campaigns in five decades  Themes tend to be 5-7 years in the forefront of public attention, but the underlying issues persist

3. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 3 Higher Education Policy Campaigns in Europe Lead by Supra-National Policy Actors  Cooperation, mobility and recognition: Starting in the 1950s; led by Council of Europe, subsequently in cooperation with UNESCO  Modernization of the HE system: Starting in the 1960s, led by OECD  Student mobility: Getting momentum in the 1980, led by European Commission (DG Education etc.)  Cycle system of study programmes and degree; Starting in late 1990s, led by cooperating national ministers  Investment in research and economic success: Starting in 2000, led by European Commission (DG Science)

4. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 4 The Bologna Process – “Great Expectations and Mixed Performance”  Book on the European higher education reforms of the 1970s: L. Cerych and P. Sabatier. Great Expectations and Mixed Performance (1986).  This title might be an appropriate title for the assessment of most major HE reform policies  The only exception: The ERASMUS success story. Why?

5. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 5 The Bologna Process – an Account after More than a Decade  Enormously lively, though controversial debate  Enormously powerful impact in operational terms: Cycle-system of study programmes and degrees  Mixed results in terms of core aim: contribution to increase number of incoming students from other regions of the world; no evidence of contribution to growth of intra-European student mobility  Mixed feelings about the introduction of the bachelor: What does that mean in terms of curricula and in terms of employment and work of bachelor graduates?

6. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 6 Developments of Student Mobility (I)  Foreign students from outside Europe: 2.4 % (1999), 3.7 % (2007)  Foreign students from other European countries: 3.0 % (1999), 3.3 % (2007) (each: country means for 32 European countries) Source: U. Teichler, I. Ferencz & B. Wächter (Eds.) Mapping Mobility in European Higher Education. 2 vols. Bonn: DAAD 2011 (http://ec.europa.eu/education/erasmus/doc922 _en.htm)

7. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 7 Developments of Student Mobility (II) Ratio of Students with Home Nationality Enrolled Abroad to Resident Students with Home Nationality (%) _________________________________________________________________________________ Ratio Change* Country 1998/ 2002/ 2006/ of absolute 99 03 07 of ratio numbers ___________________________________________________________________________________ AT Austria5.16.46.0 +18 + 14 CZ Czech Republic1.72.52.5 +47 +119 DE Germany 3.1 4.3 (+39)** (+ 69) FR France2.42.83.2 +33 + 38 HU Hungary2.42.22.1 -13 + 34 IT Italy2.42.32.3 - 4 + 4 NL The Netherlands2.82.52.6 - 7 + 13 NO Norway7.17.76.8 - 4 + 7 PL Poland1.11.32.0 +82 +169 UK United Kingdom1.41.41.2 -14 - 10 ______________________________________________________________________________ * Increase/decrease from 1998/99 to 2006/07 ** Change 2002/03-2006/07 Source: Based on Mapping Mobility in Higher Education in Europe, 2011 (not yet published)

8. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 8 Developments of Student Mobility (III) Periods Abroad During the Course of Study of Graduates from Selected European Countries (%) ____________________________________________________________________________________ Bachelor graduates Master graduates Single-cycle/ traditional degrees Country Univ. Other HEIs All Univ. Other HEIs All Univ. Other HEIs All ____________________________________________________________________________________ AT Study 16 22 18 22 23 22 Various act. 24 33 27 37 40 37 CZ Study 6 18 Work 6 15 DE Study 1614 179 199 Various act. 2827 3522 3720 FR Study62 1222 11 Various act.2022 2954 32 IT Study5 515 1510 10 NL Study2821 28 283516 NO Study20 25 PL Study 2 3 3 UK Study4 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Schomburg/Teichler, eds. Employability and Mobility of Bachelor Graduates in Europe. Rotterdam: Sense Publishers, 2011.

9. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 9 Development of Employment and Work of Bachelors (I) Whereabouts of Bachelor Graduates from Selected European Countries (%) _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Total Solely Employment Solely Total CountryEmploymentEmployment+ StudyStudyStudy _____________________________________________________________________________________________ AT University5626284068 Fachhochschule6642233154 CZ Czech Republic-200872 DE University4518245175 Fachhochschule7152172441 HU Hungary6539162844 IT Italy4631154257 NL HBO897316723 NO University6223393473 UK Full-time study716381523 Part-time study826715621 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Schomburg/Teichler, eds. Employability and Mobility of Bachelor Graduates in Europe. Rotterdam: Sense Publishers, 2011.

10. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 10 Development of Employment and Work of Bachelors (II) __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Bachelor graduates Master graduates Single-cycle/ traditional degrees Univ. Other HEIs All Univ. Other HEIs All Univ. Other HEIs All __________________________________________________________________________________________________ CZ Managerial/Prof. Position3160 Associate Prof. Position5234 FR Managerial/Prof. Position1715638191 Associate Prof. Position646729157 HU Managerial/Prof. Position626258 Associate Prof. Position293134 NL Managerial/Prof. Position575271717152 Associate Prof. Position11221010923 NO Managerial/Prof. Position2775 Associate Prof. Position1113 UK Managerial/Prof. Position3673 Associate Prof. Position3018 __________________________________________________________________________________________________ Prof. = Professional / Univ. = University Other HEIs = Other Higher Education Institutions (e.g. Fachhochschulen, Grandes Écoles etc.) Source: Schomburg/Teichler, eds. Employability and Mobility of Bachelor Graduates in Europe. Rotterdam: Sense Publishers, 2011.

11. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 11 Development of Employment and Work of Bachelors (III) Gross Income of Graduates from Selected European Countries (in Euro; arithmetic mean of employed graduates) ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Bachelor graduates Master graduates Single-cycle/ traditional degrees Univ. Other HEIs All Univ. Other HEIs All Univ. Other HEIs All ___________________________________________________________________________________________ AT Austria2,3582,7482,5322,6412,8882,705 (monthly) DE Germany 2,4482,8172,7183,0123,7433,3463,0703,0373,053 (monthly) FR France1,3681,5751,9042,3132,383 (net monthly) HU Hungary8,88411,9589,327 (annual) IT Italy1,1091,1091,0571,0571,1101,110 (net monthly) NL The Netherlands2,5892,0402,4392,4392,4761,938 NO Norway38,25945,22846,012 (annual) PL Poland2.232.402.38 (net hourly) ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Univ. = University; Other HEIs = Other Higher Education Institutions (e.g. Fachhochschulen, Grandes Écoles etc.) Source: Schomburg/Teichler, eds. Employability and Mobility of Bachelor Graduates in Europe. Rotterdam: Sense Publishers, 2011.

12. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 12 Development of Employment and Work of Bachelors (IV) Strong Vertical Link between Level of Educational Attainment and Position among Graduates from Selected European Countries (% of employed graduates) ___________________________________________________________________________ Bachelor graduates Master graduates Single-cycle/ traditional degrees Univ. Other All Univ. Other All Univ. Other All HEIs HEIs HEIs ___________________________________________________________________________ AT Austria778380868887 CZ Czech Republic8487 DE Germany758178858286 FR France5540828897 IT Italy8080 NL The Netherlands478164646478 NO Norway3758 PL Poland60. ___________________________________________________________________________ Source: Schomburg/Teichler, eds. Employability and Mobility of Bachelor Graduates in Europe. Rotterdam: Sense Publishers, 2011.

13. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 13 Development of Employment and Work of Bachelors (V) Strong Horizontal Link between Level of Educational Attainment and Position among Graduates from Selected European Countries (% of employed graduates) ___________________________________________________________________________ Bachelor graduates Master graduates Single-cycle/ traditional degrees Univ. Other All Univ. Other All Univ. Other All HEIs HEIs HEIs ________________________________________________________________________________ AT Austria485149475449 CZ Czech Republic6567 DE Germany354856645051 HU Hungary617659 IT Italy4040 NL The Netherlands546266666664 NO Norway6587 PL Poland828383 ________________________________________________________________________________ Source: Schomburg/Teichler, eds. Employability and Mobility of Bachelor Graduates in Europe. Rotterdam: Sense Publishers 2011.

14. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 14 New Policies for 2020 – Dominance of Quantitative Targets Somewhat related policies of EU and national ministers  40% Overall enrolment rate in tertiary education  Continuation of ERASMUS with larger numbers of mobile students  20% event of student mobility during the course of study

15. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 15 Critique of Future Policies  Long perpetuation of policy labels does not work; need for a new “sex appeal”  Average growth targets can only mobilize the middle ground (some have already achieved the targets; others have no chance of reaching the target)  Quantitative policies are not convincing if not linked to substantive aims (futile “virtue of substantive neutrality”)

16. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 16 The Future of Student Mobility  Mixed signal of continuation and extension of ERASMUS 1.On the one hand: Continued appreciation of mobility 2.On the other hand: notion that the mobilisation logic of ERASMUS has not worked (in contrast to the mobilisation programme TEMPUS which could be discontinued regarding many Central/Eastern European countries)  The value of mobility declines in the wake of the general internationalisation trend, if the qualitative character does not change  What could be the future substantive objectives of student mobility?

17. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 17 The Future of Bachelors (I)  The introduction of bachelor programmes and bachelor degrees was not convincingly explained in the Bologna Declaration (prime objective: Mobility)  The rationale of bachelor programmes and degrees also remained vague in the subsequent debates on “employability” and “qualification frameworks”  Hidden rationale: Expansion and increased attraction of short-cycle higher education in the wake of continued overall growth of enrolment rate?

18. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 18 Retrospect of OECD Scenario Published in the 1990s OECD. Redefining Tertiary Education (1997)  Enrolment rate will grow up to about 75% in economically advanced countries  The majority of graduates will not be employed any more in the management/profession sector of the occupation systems, but rather in middle-level positions  It is not assured anymore at such stages of massification that educational investments will yield respective return. What does this mean for motivating youth to learn?

19. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 19 The Future of Bachelors (II)  There is a need to have a minimum common understanding of the curricular thrusts of bachelor programmes beyond the general calls of the qualification framework and beyond the controversial employability debates.  Curricular visions for bachelor programmes have to be linked with visions of the future of graduate employment and work: Will further enrolment growth be linked with growing vertical stratification of graduates or by a flattening of the occupational hierarchy (“Wisdom of the Many”)?

20. Ulrich Teichler: On the Way to Bucharest 20 Conclusion  The Bologna policies have been characterized by a dominance of quantitative and structural objectives and a concurrent avoidance of clear value judgements (academic vs. economic values, elitist vs. egalitarian goals, etc.) (cf. Pavel Zgaga at the Bologna conference of higher education researchers in October 2011).  The only exception is mobility and internationalisation which is widely used as having a consensual support.  Can Bologna policies become “sexy” again or can they be substituted by successor policies without getting involved into value judgements which had been avoided in the past?