1. Development of an Integrated Earth System Model at FRCGC Taroh MATSUNO Michio KAWAMIYA Hisashi SATO Kengo SUDO Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC)

2. FRCGC integrated Earth System Model

3. Kyousei2 Project: Development of an Integrated Earth System Model at FRCGC PI: T. Matsuno M. Aita, A. Abe-Ouchi***, A. Ito, S. Emori, T. Oikawa**, R. Ogaito, M. Kawamiya M. Kishi*,N. Kuba, T. Kohyama*, H. Kondo, H. Sato, Ta. Suzuki, Ts. Suzuki, K. Sudo, T. Segawa, K. Takata, M. Takahashi***, M. Takigawa, K. Tanaka, Y. Tsushima, Y. Yamanaka*, C. Yoshikawa, S. Watanabe (FRCGC) M. Kimoto, K. Suzuki, T. Nakajima, H. Hasumi (CCSR/Univ. of Tokyo) T. Nagashima, T. Nozawa (NIES) T. Takemura (Kushu Univ.) Double affiliates of FRCGC researchers: *Hokkaido Univ., **Univ. of Tsukuba, ***CCSR/Univ. of Tokyo

4. Carbon Cycle Component

5. FRCGC Carbon Cycle Component Models: Terrestrial model Sim-CYCLE by Itoh & Oikawa (2002) 20 PFTs without dynamic vegetation 5 compartments for each PFT

6. “ DGVMization ” of Sim-CYCLE Individual basis model, which explicitly treat 3D forest-structure within 30m x 30m patches Foliage : biomass, crown diameter, crown depth Stem : biomass, height, sapwood & heartwood diameter Root : biomass Individual characteristics --- Shape of crown and stem are approximated by cylinder DGVM: Dynamical Global Vegetation Model -> Incorporation of the effect of biome-shift into Sim-CYCLE

7. FRCGC Carbon Cycle Component Models: Oceanic model 4-compartment ecosystem model (Oschlies & Garcon, 1998) Treatment of carbonate system as recommended by OCMIP

8. MIROC 3.2 Intermediate Resolution Version (no flux adjustment) “borrowed” from the K-1 project Atmosphere: CCSR/NIES/FRCGC AGCM 5.7 T42L20 Online aerosol Ocean: COCO3.4 (developed by CCSR, Univ. of Tokyo) (0.5-1.0)°×1.4°, 43 Layers + BBL Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Model

9. Participation in C4MIP C4MIP: Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project –Strongly IPCC-conscious –Participants: Hadley (UK); IPSL (France); MPI (Germany); LLNL, NCAR, Berkeley, Maryland, GFDL (US); CSIRO (Australia); FRCGC (Japan) –Our “ pacemaker ” KyouseiIntegratedSynergeticSystemModelof the Earth KISSME!

10. C4MIP Phase 1 Experiment Land-atmosphere coupled run –Do not really focus on climate-carbon cycle interaction –CO2 as a simple tracer with sources and sinks at the surface (including land use change) –Results due in Feb. 2005

11. Leaf Area Index (Jul. 1990) LAI （ Model; Jul. 1990 ） LAI （ NOAA AVHRR; Jul. 1990 ） 0 3.5 7 0 7

12. Net Primary Production NPP （ ISLSCP 17 model ave ） NPP （ Model; 1990-1999 ave ） 0 5 10 15 0 5 10 15 [MgC/ha/yr]

13. Distribution of CO2 (1990) DJF JJA 320 340 360 [ppmv] 320 340 360 [ppmv] 320 340 360 [ppmv]

14. Distribution of CO2 from land ecosystem (1990) DJF JJA 310 330 [ppmv] 310 330 [ppmv]

15. Distribution of CO2 from air-sea exchange DJF JJA 320 325 320 325

16. C4MIP Phase 2 Experiment Experiments with full coupled model including the ocean (like KISSME) In parallel with Phase 1 Protocol yet to be firmly established “ Flying leap ” experiments can be its prototype. –1%/yr increase of CO2 emission –Experiments w/ and w/o interactions between climate and carbon cycle –Results due to Feb. 2005?

17. Preliminary results from a “ climate of 20 th century ” run with the full coupled model w/ interactions w/o interactions Obs.

18. Air-Sea CO2 Exchange Obs. Nomalized for 1995 (Takahashi, 1999) Model result for 1980

19. Intrusion of anthropogenic CO2 Obs. (Sabine et al., 2004) Model Atlantic Pacific 60S Eq. 60N 60SEq.40N

20. Summary for Carbon Cycle Modeling Preliminary results with land-atmosphere and land-atmosphere-ocean coupled models Collaboration with the “ sister project ” K-1 -> tune-up of the coupled climate model Participation in C4MIP -> Contribution to IPCC AR4 Fine-tuning of the carbon cycle components is now being carried out --- Stay tuned!