1. County Population and Labor Force Projections: New Jersey, 2004 to 2014
NJSDC Network Meeting
June 6, 2007

2. County Projections Procedures
Apply state fertility and mortality rates by age-race-sex to individual counties.
Project net migration based on demand and supply of county labor force.
Distribute county net total migration to individual age-race-sex cohorts according to recent pattern.
Presentation of employment projections will follow
Control sum of 21 counties to state totals at each step.

3. Population Projections for New Jersey Overview
Rate of Population Growth:
New Jersey’s population growth will continue to lag behind the nation as a whole.

4. County Population: 2004 and 2014
Population is projected to increase in all counties, except Cape May, from 2004 to 2014.

5. Population Growth by Region
The central and coastal regions will continue to lead the state’s population growth from 2004 to 2014.
The rate of population growth in the northern region is projected to lag behind average between 2004 and 2014.
About 35% of NJ pop live in Costal and Central counties but these 2 regions account for 45% of the growth

6. Annualized Population Growth Rate by Region
Region (counties)
State Total
0.81%
0.56%
Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Union)
0.51%
0.39%
Northwestern (Sussex, Warren)
1.19%
0.91%
Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset)
1.22%
0.65%
Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean)
1.26%
0.75%
Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem)
0.62%
0. 66%

7. Population Growth by Region
The rural northwestern counties will have substantial population growth from their small population bases.
Coastal region’s Ocean County is projected to be the fastest growing county in New Jersey, followed by Gloucester County in the southern region.
Northwestern account for 3% of NJ’s pop in 2004, 3.1% by 2014.

9. Population Projections by county
Bergen County will continue to be the state’s most populous county.
By 2014, Middlesex will replace Essex as the state’s second most populous county; while Morris (ranked 10th in 2004) and Passaic (ranked 9th in 2004) will exchange their population rankings in the state.
Salem County will be the only county with less than 100,000 residents in New Jersey by 2014.

10. Population Projections for New Jersey Overview
Hispanics and Other Races are projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic and White and Black counterparts.
Hispanics= persons with Latin American origin. NHW will decline 3.6%.
Other Races= Asian, AIAN, NHPI.

11. Projections of County Population by Race
White’s share of the state’s population is projected to decline gradually.
Cape May County is projected to continue to have the highest proportion of whites in its population (93.3% in 2014).
White will decline moderately in MID, BER, MER, CAP & SOM, but grow substantially in Ocean (9.8%) & Gloucester (7.6%).
Essex County will continue to have the lowest proportion of whites in its population (51.1% by 2014).

12. Projections of County Population by Race
Essex County will continue to have the highest proportion of African Americans (41.9% by 2014).
Approximately one-half (51%) of the state’s black population will be residing in just four counties by 2014: Essex, Union, Camden and Hudson.
Black will decline somewhat in Cape May & Monmouth.
Sussex, Morris and Ocean counties will continue to have no more than 4% blacks among their resident population.

13. Projections of County Population by Race
The “other races” population is projected to grow faster than their white and black counterparts in every county.
Middlesex and Bergen counties are projected to account for 40% of the state’s total “other races” population in More than one in every five Middlesex County residents will be persons of “other races” by 2014.
Mostly Asians but also include AIAN and NHPI

14. Projections of County Population by Race
Proportion of “other races” Population in Selected Counties
However, the proportion of “other races” population will continue to remain low in southern rural counties and in the coastal “retirement” communities.
County
2004
2014
Middlesex
17.8%
23.2%
Bergen
13.4%
17.7%
Hudson
11.5%
12.7%
Somerset
11.2%
16.5%
Cumberland
2.4%
2.8%
Ocean
1.8%
Salem
1.1%
1.6%
Cape May
0.9%
1.2%

15. Nonwhite=black + other races + multiracial
Multiracial accounted for 1.25% in 2004, 1.63% in 2014.

16. Projections of County Population by Hispanic origin
Hudson and Passaic counties will continue to have the largest number and highest proportion of Hispanic population in the state.
Essex, Bergen, Union and Middlesex counties are also projected to have large number of Hispanics.
Northern counties (exclude Morris) + Middlesex (with 160,000+ Hisp)
HUD 43.1%, PAS 38.7%
Together, these six counties will account for 68% of the state’s total Hispanics by 2014.

17. Gloucester 3.8% the lowest
Bergen 18% v. Cumberland 25%

18. Population Projections for New Jersey Overview
New Jersey Population by Age: 2004 and 2014
The “baby boom” generation (aged in 2014) and their children (born between 1977 and 1994) will continue to be the largest age cohorts of the state’s population.
Age
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
Baby Boomer aged in 2004, in 2014
Baby Bust aged in 2004, in 2014
Echoes aged in 2004, in 2014.
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
600
400
200
200
400
600
2004
(Population in thousands)
2014

19. Projections of County Population by Age
Cape May County is projected to have the highest proportion (20.9%) of elderly population in the state by 2014, followed by Ocean County (19.3%).
Bergen, Ocean, Middlesex and Essex counties will continue to have the largest number of senior citizens (65 or older). However, these four counties’ share of the state’s total elderly population will decline somewhat from 38.7% in 2004 to 36.5% in 2014.
Hudson County (12.0%) will have the lowest proportion of seniors among the state’s 21 counties by 2014.

21. Projections of County Population by Sex
Females will continue to outnumber males in every county except Cumberland.
Sex Ratio (males per 100 females) in Selected Counties
County
2004
2014
Ocean
90.9
91.1
Cape May
92.9
92.1
Hudson
97.2
97.7
Sussex
98.4
98.1
Cumberland
104.6
104.4
New Jersey
94.9
95.2
The sex ratio ranges from Ocean County’s 91.1 to Cumberland County’s in the year 2014.
Sex ratio = males per 100 females
<100: more females than males

22. Labor Force Projections for New Jersey Overview
New Jersey’s civilian labor force is projected to grow faster than its population from 2004 to 2014.
Growth of Population and Labor Force: New Jersey,

23. Labor Force Projections by County
Labor force is projected to increase in every county from 2004 to 2014.

24. Labor Force Projections by County
Labor Force in Ocean and Gloucester counties is projected to grow faster than other counties during the period.
Parallel to the population growth pattern, the coastal region will continue to lead the state’s labor force growth while growth in the northern and southern regions is projected to accelerate.
Ocean 21.8%, Hunterdon 20.1% vs. Salem 3.5%, Hudson 5.2%, Essex 5.5% & Passaic 5.6%

25. Annualized Labor Force Growth Rate by Region
Region (counties)
State Total
0.48%
0.66%
Northern (Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Morris, Passaic, Union)
-0.05%
0.43%
Northwestern (Sussex, Warren)
1.27%
1.01%
Central (Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset)
0.82%
0.59%
Coastal (Atlantic, Cape May, Monmouth, Ocean)
1.16%
1.10%
Southern (Burlington, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem)
0.70%
0.81%

26. Labor Force Projections by Age
As “baby boomers” continue to age, the share of the state’s “older workers” (labor force 55 years or older) is projected to reach 21.4% by 2014, from 16.8% in 2004.
By 2014, the “older worker’s” share of the county labor force will range from 18.7% in Hudson County to 27.5% in Cape May County.

27. Labor Force Projections by Sex
Women’s share of the state’s labor force is projected to increase gradually from 46.6% in 2004 to 47.2% in 2014.
The projected proportion of females in the labor force ranged from 45.4% in Morris County to 50.0% in Essex County as of 2014.

28. County Labor Force Projections by Race
The nonwhite, especially the “other races” labor force, is projected to increase substantially faster than their white counterpart in all counties from 2004 to 2014.
Consequently, the shares of whites in the labor force will shrink in each county while nonwhites (esp. “other races”) are projected to increase their shares.
By 2014, White accounts for 53.1% LF in Essex County, vs. 93.7% in Cape May.

29. County Labor Force Projections by Race
Proportion of “other races” Labor Force in Selected Counties
The proportion of “Other Races” labor force varies by county. It ranges from 1.3% in Cape May County to 21.8% in Middlesex County by the year 2014.
County
2004
2014
State Total
7.0%
9.2%
Middlesex
16.7%
21.8%
Bergen
12.6%
17.1%
Somerset
10.0%
15.0%
Ocean
1.8%
2.4%
Salem
1.3%
Cape May
0.9%

30. County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin
Hispanics will account for about two-thirds (66.2%) of the state’s labor force growth between 2004 and 2014.
Hispanic labor force is projected to grow faster than their non-Hispanic counterparts in all counties from 2004 to 2014.
By 2014, Gloucester 3.6%, Cape May 4.3% vs. Hudson 43.5%, Passaic 37.6%.

31. County Labor Force Projections by Hispanic origin
The proportion of Hispanics in the labor force ranged from 2.7% in Gloucester County to 40.9% in Hudson County as of The proportion in these two counties will increase to 3.6% and 43.5%, respectively, in 2014.
Approximately 70% of New Jersey’s Hispanic labor force were concentrated in six counties in 2004: Hudson, Passaic, Bergen, Union, Middlesex and Essex. These six counties will still have 67% of the state’s Hispanic labor force by 2014.
By 2014, Gloucester 3.6%, Cape May 4.3% vs. Hudson 43.5%, Passaic 37.6%.

32. THE END Comments Welcomed sywu@dol.state.nj.us (e-mail) Contact:
Sen-Yuan Wu
@ (phone)
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