1. NJ SHARES The Evaluation of 2007 Grants October 20, 2008 Revised 11/21/08

2. Evaluation Goals Characterize 2007 NJ SHARES grant recipients Characterize 2007 NJ SHARES grants Examine good faith payments Analyze post-grant payment compliance 2

3. Evaluation Components Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis –Characterizes grant recipients –Characterizes grants Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis –“Good Faith” Payment Analysis –Grant Coverage Analysis –Post-Grant Payment Compliance 3

4. Evaluation Components Data received from: –ACE –Elizabethtown Gas –NJNG –PSE&G –SJG –JCP&L (Not usable) –Rockland (Not usable) 4

5. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Grant Counts by Utility 5 Utility Number of Grants Percent of All Grants Grant Dollars Percent of Grant Dollars Atlantic City Electric 4146%$136,1064% Elizabethtown 5719%$326,3378% JCP&L 96415%$321,3548% NJNG 5528%$311,0128% PSE&G 3,51054%$2,450,16864% Rockland 401%$12,779<1% SJG 4857%$284,4277% TOTAL 6,536100%$3,842,183100%

6. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Q1 Grant Counts by Type 6 TypeQ1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008 Electric Only 68317%71519%1,00724% Gas Only 75619%83222%1,03624% Electric & Gas 2,41661%2,03155%1,97946% Electric Heat 1133%1404%2366% TOTAL 3,9683,7184,258

7. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Grant Counts by County 7 County Number Served Percent of Total County Number Served Percent of Total Atlantic1802.8%Middlesex6139.4% Bergen2283.5%Monmouth5218.0% Burlington2093.2%Morris2594.0% Camden4406.7%Ocean4957.6% Cape May440.7%Passaic3004.6% Cumberland1382.1%Salem410.6% Essex1,07216.4%Somerset1652.5% Gloucester2263.5%Sussex610.9% Hudson4877.5%Union5939.1% Hunterdon270.4%Warren631.0% Mercer3715.7%TOTAL6,533100.0%

8. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Years Received Grants, 2005-2008 8 Number of YearsPercent of Grant Recipients 1 Year82% 2 Years13% 3 Years4% 4 Years1% Number of YearsPercent of Grant Recipients 1 Year82% 2 Years13% 3 Years4% 4 Years1%

9. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Members Contributing to Income 9 Household Members 2005 Recipients2006 Recipients2007 Recipients None <1 %0% One 75%73%72% Two 22%24%25% Three or More 3% Mean Number 1.3

10. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Recipient Income Sources 10 Income Source 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients Employment 88%89%88% Pension or Social Security 12% 13% Unemployment Compensation 6%5% Disability 5%4%5% Child Support 4% 3% Other 3%

11. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Annual Household Income 11 Annual Household Income 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients < $10,000<1%0% $10,000 - $19,9999%6%5% $20,000 - $29,99931%28%22% $30,000 - $39,99928%29% $40,000 +31%38%45% Mean Annual Income$35,942$38,921$41,844

12. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Household Poverty Level 12 Household Poverty Level 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients <175%6% 5% 175% - 199%26%24%20% 200% - 249%32% 30% 250% - 299%17%16%17% 300% +19%22%28% Mean Poverty Level251%257%273%

13. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Household Composition 13 Note: A household can be included in more than one category. Household Composition 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients <6 Years Old29%26%28% ≤ 18 Years Old61%60%64% > 60 Years Old8% 13%

14. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Household Composition 14 Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”. Household Composition 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients Single Parent14%13%27% Elderly Only4%5%9%

15. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006-2007 Household Poverty Level 15 Household Poverty Level Household Composition 2006 Recipients2007 Recipients All ≤ 18 Years Old > 60 Years Old All ≤ 18 Years Old > 60 Years Old <175%6%7%5% 6%5% 175% - 199%24%27%26%20%22%18% 200% - 249%32%33%32%30%32%30% 250% - 299%16% 17%18%16% 300% +22%16%21%28%23%31% TOTAL100%

16. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006-2007 Household Poverty Level 16 Household Poverty Level Household Composition 2006 Recipients2007 Recipients All Single Parent Elderly Only All Single Parent Elderly Only <175%6%11%5% 7%5% 175% - 199%24%34%26%20%24%18% 200% - 249%32%34%32%30%33%28% 250% - 299%16%13%16%17%18%15% 300% +22%8%21%28%18%33% TOTAL100%

17. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Recipient Household Size 17 Household Size 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients 126%22%24% 230% 28% 321%22%21% 414%15%17% 5 +9%10%11% Mean Size2.52.7

18. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Main Heating Fuel 18 Main Heating Fuel 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients Natural Gas82%83%84% Electric13%11% Oil5% 4% Propane<1% Other<1%

19. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application 19 Reported Bill Balance 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients < $2508% 7% $250 - $49925%20%23% $500 - $74923%22%24% $750 - $99916%15%17% $1,000 +29%35%29% Mean Balance$892$993$879

20. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application 20 Bill Balance Percent of Federal Poverty Level < 175%175-199%200-249 %250-299%300% + < $50029%30%32%30%27% $500 - $74926%23% 25%23% $750 +45%47%46%45%50% Mean Balance$836$873$864$883$932

21. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean 2005-2007 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application 21 Grant Type2005 Recipients2006 Recipients2007 Recipients Electric Only$563$566$557 Gas Only$654$740$762 Electric & Gas$1,108$1,268$1,168 Electric Heat$831$823$904 All Grants$892$993$879

22. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Grant Application for 2005-2007 Recipients 22 Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions. Collections Actions 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients Past Due Balance8%3% 17% Past Due Warning Notice47%18% 17% Shut-Off Date Not Passed20%22% 20% Shut-Off Date Passed26%49% 41% Utility Shut-Off0%9% 4%

23. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Reason for Grant Application 23 Reason for Application 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients Temporary Financial Crisis60%68%-- High Energy Costs27%24%69% Medical/Health7%5%11% Unemployment3%2%6% Reduced Hours/Change in Employment -- 6% Other3%2%8%

24. NJ SHARES Database Analysis Detailed 2007 Recipient “Other” Reasons for Grant Application –Temporary financial crisis –Household changes (spouse leaving or dying or a new baby in the home) –Car repairs –Meter read after months of low, estimated bills –Over income limit for LIHEAP –Mortgage, rent, or child support arrearages or increases –Medical costs –Home repairs –Moving costs –Other bills 24

25. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2007 Grant Amounts 25 Grant Amount2005 Recipients2006 Recipients2007 Recipients < $30045%14%11% $300<1%14%20% $301 - $69955%28%24% $7000%10%17% $700 - $9990%12%10% $1,0000%22%17% Mean Grant$373$603$588

26. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Grant Amounts 26 Grant Amount Grant Type Electric OnlyGas OnlyElectric & GasElectric Heat < $30025%10%4%5% $30075%<1% 2% $301 - $6990%40%28%34% $700<1%50%<1%58% $700 - $9990% 25%0% $1,0000% 43%0% Mean Grant$277$573$797$600

27. NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2007 Mean Grant Amount by Utility 27 Utility 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients 2007 Recipients Atlantic City Electric $286$331$329 Elizabethtown $237$504$572 JCP&L $278$303$333 NJNG $246$557$563 PSE&G $420$669$698 Rockland $237$284$319 SJG $236$544$586

28. PART 2 Utility Data Analysis Methodology Focused on Q1 2007 grant recipients Transaction data from participating utilities Files contain payments, charges, account balances Analyzed: –Existence of “Good Faith Payment” –Grant coverage of pre-grant balances –Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals Used Q1 2006 and Q1 2008 recipients as comparison groups 28

29. Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions 29 Q1 2007 Recipient Treatment Group Q1 2006 Recipient Comparison Group Q1 2008 Recipient Comparison Group Accounts Included All Q1 2007 grant recipients Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2006 only Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2008 that did not receive grants in Q1 2007 Analysis Period Starts1 day following grant 1 year + 1 day after grant 1 year + 1 day before grant Analysis Period Ends 1 year + 1 day after grant 2 years + 1 day after grant 1 day before grant Analysis Period SpanQ1 2007– Q1 2008

30. Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions (continued) 30 2006 Q1 2007 ANALYSIS PERIOD Q1 2006 ANALYSIS PERIOD Q1 2008 ANALYSIS PERIOD GRANT DATE GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAY GRANT DATE + 1 DAY GRANT DATE GRANT DATE – 1 DAY 2007 2008 GRANT DATE + 1 DAY GRANT DATE 1 YEAR

31. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition 31 The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account. Only payments made by the customer are counted. INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS INTAKE DATE GRANT DATE “GOOD FAITH” PERIOD GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

32. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Attrition Analysis 32 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients Number Submitted 3,8573,9023,435 Number Returned 2,8893,0412,999 Eligible for Analysis* 1,4451,9742,789 Percent of Requested Accounts 37%51%81% * An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

33. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Percent Making “Good Faith” Payment 33 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients 96% 98%

34. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis 34 Payments Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients $02% 1% $1 - $992% 1% $10011%15%9% $101 - $25026%27%23% $251 - $50034%30%28% $501 +25% 38% Mean Payment$394$375$502

35. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2007 Recipients 35 Payments Federal Poverty Level < 175%175-199%200-249%250-299%≥ 300% $00%2%1%2% $1 - $992% $10024%16%15%16%12% $101 - $25024%28%25%28%25% $251 - $50029%31% 25%32% $501 +21% 26%27% Mean Payment$340$352$379$399$396

36. “Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100 36 Payments Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients 25 th Percentile112 50 th Percentile222 75 th Percentile334 Mean Number of Payments 2.42.23.0

37. Grant Coverage Analysis Attrition Analysis 37 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients Number Submitted 3,8573,9023,435 Number Returned 2,8893,0412,999 Eligible for Analysis* 1,8342,4732,874 Percent of Requested Accounts 48%63%84% * An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

38. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006-Q1 2008 Grant Coverage 38 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients Mean Pre-Grant Balance $892$1,062$1,173 Mean Grant $500$589$643 Mean Post-Grant Balance $392$473$530 Mean Percent of Pre- Grant Balances Covered 67%68%

39. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage Distribution 39 Percentile 10%25%50%75%90% Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 32%47%64%85%100%

40. Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage 40 Q1 2007 Recipients Electric OnlyGas OnlyElectric & GasElectric Heat Mean Pre-Grant Balance $755$992$1,278$1,017 Mean Grant $277$555$777$573 Mean Post-Grant Balance $477$437$502$444 Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 55%73%72%67%

41. Payment Compliance Analysis Attrition Analysis 41 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients Number Submitted 3,0233,9023,435 Number Returned 1,8313,0412,999 Accounts with Usable Data* 1,7642,8262,881 Amount of Data Available for Analysis 3 Months 1,4582,3702,097 6 Months 1,4102,2562,060 9 Months 1,3572,1441,992 12 Months 1,3032,0411,895 Percent of Requested Accounts 43%52%55% * An account has usable data if it appears to have received the NJ SHARES grant and if we were able to duplicate the utility- reported account balances.

42. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid 42 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 RecipientsQ1 2008 Recipients 3 Months 143%82%113% 6 Months 131%95%110% 9 Months 111%93%101% 12 Months100%83%81%

43. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid Accounts with 12 Months of Data 43 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 RecipientsQ1 2008 Recipients 3 Months 140%79%113% 6 Months 130%91%110% 9 Months 111%90%101% 12 Months100%83%81%

44. Payment Compliance Analysis Accounts with 12 Months of Data 44 Q1 2006 RecipientsQ1 2007 RecipientsQ1 2008 Recipients Pay ≥ 100%Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%Pay ≥ 90% 3 Months 67%72%27%34%53%59% 6 Months 70%78%33%44%54%65% 9 Months 63%77%30%46%51%66% 12 Months 49%71%19%36%13%30%

45. Payment Compliance Analysis Percent of Bills Paid Recipients with 12 Months of Data 45 Percent of Bills Paid Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients < 50% 3%7%5% 50% - 75% 8%27%28% 76% - 90% 18%30%36% 91% - 99%23%17% 100% + 49%19%13% Mean 100%83%81%

46. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance 46 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients Starting Balance $679$380$587 3 Months $519$550$563 6 Months $441$495$531 9 Months $517$513$581 12 Months$692$773$1,032

47. Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance Accounts with 12 Months of Data 47 Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients Q1 2008 Recipients Starting Balance $661$348$574 3 Months $506$520$549 6 Months $429$475$518 9 Months $507$511$570 12 Months$692$773$1,032

48. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients 48

49. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 49 Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2302511251,435 Percent of Customers 11%13%6%70% Mean Pre-Grant Balance $618$1,646$935$1,011 Mean Grant Amount $493$599$538$617 Mean Post-Grant Balance$125$1,047$397$394 Mean Number of Payments*1011109 Mean Percent of Bills Paid105%118%97%72% * Note: Only customer payments are counted.

50. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 50 Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2302511251,435 Percent of Customers 11%13%6%70% Mean Charges $1,976$2,525$2,319$2,667 Mean Payments $2,082$2,930$2,269$1,979

51. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 51 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 487634314 Percent of Customers 24%31%15% Mean Pre-Grant Balance $789$981$1,427 Mean Grant Amount $513$626$765 Mean Post-Grant Balance$276$355$662 Mean Number of Payments*998 Mean Percent of Bills Paid84%70%57% * Note: Only customer payments are counted.

52. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 52 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 487634314 Percent of Customers 24%31%15% Mean Charges $2,038$2,570$3,839 Mean Payments $1,785$1,928$2,382

53. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 53 Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2302511251,435 Percent of Customers 11%13%6%70% Mean Starting Balance$81$976$327$283 Mean Ending Balance-$26$571$377$971 Percent Paying ≥ 90%84%100%99%11% Percent Paying ≥ 100%60%100%0%

54. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 54 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 487634314 Percent of Customers 24%31%15% Mean Starting Balance$213$234$490 Mean Ending Balance$466$875$1,948 Percent Paying ≥ 90%30%3%0% Percent Paying ≥ 100%0%

55. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Number of Customers 2302511251,435 Percent of Customers 11%13%6%70% Median Annual Income $36,186$38,076$39,672$37,344 < 175% FPL 4%7%4%5% 175% – 199% FPL 19%17%23%20% 200% - 249% FPL29%30%27%30% 250% - 299% FPL19%17%18% ≥ 300% FPL30%29%28%29% Percent Single-Parent17%23%22%28% Percent Elderly-Only18%8%7%8%

56. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 56 Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Number of Customers 487634314 Percent of Customers 24%31%15% Median Annual Income $36,612$37,200$38,700 < 175% FPL 4%5%3% 175% – 199% FPL 18%19%23% 200% - 249% FPL32%30%26% 250% - 299% FPL18% 16% ≥ 300% FPL28% 31% Percent Single-Parent25%29%30% Percent Elderly-Only8%9%8%

57. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 57 Grant Type Ending Balance <$100 Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100 Balance Increased by <$100 Balance Increased by ≥ $100 Electric Only 22%27%24%20% Gas Only 47%35%42%26% Electric & Gas 30%35%32%51% Electric Heat 1%3%2%3% Total100%

58. Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2007 Grant Recipients (continued) 58 Grant Type Balance Increased by $100 - $399 Balance Increased by $400 - $999 Balance Increased by $1,000 + Electric Only 27%18%12% Gas Only 28%26%23% Electric & Gas 42%53%63% Electric Heat 3% 2% Total100%

59. Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the 12 Months Following Grant 59 UtilityPercent Receiving USF or LIHEAP ACE 19% Elizabethtown 6% NJNG 8% PSE&G 7% SJG 14% TOTAL 9%

60. Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the “Good Faith” Period 60 UtilityPercent Receiving USF or LIHEAP ACE 3% Elizabethtown <1% NJNG 2% PSE&G 1% SJG 1% TOTAL 1%