1. Data and Analysis Methods for Metropolitan-Level Environmental Justice Assessment Chuck Purvis, MTC January 2001

2. Policy Context Civil Rights Act (1964) – Title VI Executive Order 12898 (1994) USDOT Orders, Actions (1997-99) Proposed Metro Planning Regulations (May 2000) Other Federal Discrimination Laws –ADA (1990) –Disabilities Act (1978) –Age Discrimination Act (1975) –Rehabilitation Act (1973)

3. MPO Challenges Measuring both process and outcomes. EJ has traditionally been project-oriented, not program-oriented. Major uncertainty in long-range forecasting of population characteristics at the “very small area” (neighborhood, TAZ) level

4. Components of Discrimination Analysis (Proposed Regs) Geographic/Demographic Profiles of Region –low-income, minority, elderly, disabled Description of Transport Service Available and Planned Description of Disproportionately High and Adverse Environmental Impacts, or a Reduction in Benefits

5. Federal Data: Census Bureau Decennial Census – Census 2000 data available in 2001/2003 Small Area Income & Poverty Estimates (SAIPE) Population Projections Program

6. State Data: California State Department of Finance (DOF) – State Data Center (SDC) for California –Annual Estimates Program –Population Projections Program Race/Ethnicity, by County, to year 2040

7. Race/Ethnic Forecasting Issues Immigration Residential Mobility (between states, metro areas, neighborhoods) Measurement in Decennial Census Patterns of Ethnic Intermarriage Self-Identification uncertainties See Hirschman, Univ. of Wash.

8. Local Data (SF Bay Area) Assoc. of Bay Area Governments (ABAG) –Subarea Projections Model (SAM) used to predict households by Income Level –Model to predict very small area population by age group (0-4, 5-19, 20-44, 45-64, 65+) Metropolitan Transport. Comm. (MTC) –Household Auto Ownership Forecasts

9. Example of Geo-Demographic Analysis The Ethnic Quilt: Population Diversity in Southern California The Ethnic Quilt: Population Diversity in Southern California by CSUN Geographers Jim Allen & Eugene Turner

10. SF Bay Area Race/Ethnicity Projections Group1990200020102020 White61%53%46%41% Latino15192124 Asian15202426 African Amer. 9888 Amer. Ind. < 1 Diversity.691.748.781.802

11. Disadvantaged Population SF Bay Area, 1990 Census (PUMS) Category Total Pop (000s) Percent of Total Minority2,35139.0% Low Income 5038.4 Elderly66411.0 Disabled5228.7 TOTAL6,020100.0 Disadvantaged3,17952.8

12. Dimensions of Disadvantaged Population SF Bay Area, 1990 Census (PUMS)

13. Minority Share of Total Population, 1990 Census

14. Leading Racial/Ethnic Group 1990 Census

15. Racial/Ethnic Diversity 1990 Census

16. MTC Equity Analysis Evaluate changes in auto and transit accessibility to “disadvantaged” and “not disadvantaged” neighborhoods 38 Neighborhoods defined by non-profit organization, based on 1990 Census data. –Low income neighborhoods where median income is 80% or less of county median.

17. MTC Accessibility Analysis “Isochron” analysis (line-of-equal time) –Total jobs within 30, 45, 60, 75 minutes of neighborhood of residence by auto, transit Weighted analysis (gravity model) –Less tractable, but more sensitive to small changes in accessibility

18. Average Jobs (000s) within XX Minutes by Mode IsochronTransit Drive Alone Carpool 30 minutes 72702796 45 minutes 25713781689 60 minutes 53522412657 75 minutes 88530423449

19. Average Jobs Within 60 Minutes Transit Time

20. Average Jobs Within 60 Minutes Drive Time

21. Change in Transit Accessibility RTP Project vs No-Project

22. Future Data Census Transportation Planning Package Includes cross-tabulations of Interest for EJ Analysis Available 2002/03 Annual Data for Large Areas (65K+ Pop.) After 2003 Rolling Average, 5 year data for Very Small Areas, After 2007

23. Other Ongoing Research NCHRP Project 8-36, Task 11 – Technical Methods to Support Analysis of Environmental Justice Issues NCHRP Project 8-41 – Development of Technical Methods for E.J. Analyses USDOT training & technical assistance