1. The Impact of Climate Change on Hurricane Flooding Inundation and Economic Damages Ashley Frey Dr. Francisco Olivera, Dr. Jennifer Irish, Mir Emad Mousavi, Dr. Billy Edge, Dr. James Kaihatu, Katy Song, Lauren Dunkin, and Sean Finn November 12, 2008 Gulf Coast Hurricane Conference Sponsored by the National Commission on Energy Policy

2. http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=7957 Outline Introduction to Hurricane Flooding Objectives of Research Site Location and Selection of Hurricanes Climate Projections Methodology Results and Discussion Flooding Inundation Property Damages Conclusions 2

3. Hurricane Flooding 2005 Hurricane Season Most Tropical Storms – 27 Most Hurricanes – 15 Most Intense Hurricane – Wilma (882 mb) Cost – $50 Billion http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html 3

4. Objectives of Research Determine flood levels based on wind-surge, wave setup, subsidence, eustatic sea level rise, and astronomical tides Calculate the area of flooding inundation Estimate the cost of property damages Compare results between hurricane scenarios 4

5. Site Location – Corpus Christi, TX http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html http://maps.google.com 5

6. Site Location – Corpus Christi, TX http://www.theage.com.au/ftimages/2005/08/30/1125302540219.html http://maps.google.com 6

7. Selection of Hurricanes Storm Date (Name) Central Pressure (mb) Radius to Maximum Wind (km) Saffir- Simpson Category Observed Open Coast Surge (m) Sep 1961 (Carla)9365643.3 - 3.7 Sep 1967 (Beulah)9504632.4 - 2.9 Jul 1970 (Celia)9441732.7 - 2.8 Jul 1980 (Allen)9453732.1 - 3.7 Aug 1999 (Bret)9531930.9 - 1.5 nhc.noaa.gov Selected historical storms Bret, Beulah Carla with alternate track 7

8. Projected Hurricane Intensification Predict future storms: Project intensification based on projected SST rise (Wigley 2004 with IPCC scenarios B1, A1B, A1FI) Modify historical storm intensity Intensification approximation : Knutson & Tuleya (2004, 2008) 8% intensification per 1 o C SST rise 8

9. Projected Sea Level Rise Sea level rise: Eustatic rise projection (Wigley 2004 with IPCC scenarios B1, A1B, A1FI) Estimated historical subsidence rate: 4.6 mm/yr historical relative rate - 1.7 mm/yr historical eustatic rate = 2.9 mm/yr subsidence 9

10. Projected Hurricane Intensification 10

11. Flood Level Estimation ADCIRC – used for water levels SWAN – coupled with ADCIRC to determine wave setup XBEACH – barrier island is lowered to account for overwash and breaching 11

12. Inundation and Damage Estimation Flood inundation: In GIS framework USGS topography Inundation elevation = Surge + Relative SLR + Wave setup ± Tide Property damages: In GIS framework City of Corpus Christi parcel data FEMA (2001) loss estimation 12

13. Results – Hurricane Bret 13

14. Results – Hurricane Bret 14

15. Results – Hurricane Beulah 15

16. Results – Hurricane Beulah 16

17. Results – Hurricane Carla 17

18. Results – Hurricane Carla 18

19. Flooding Inundation Inundation: Bret: 1.2 to 1.6 times by 2030 1.6 to 3.7 times by 2080 Beulah: 1.1 to 1.2 times by 2030 1.2 to 1.8 times by 2080 Carla (shifted): 1.02 to 1.06 times by 2030 1.06 to 1.25 times by 2080 19

20. Property Damages Property Damages: Bret: 2.5 to 5 times by 2030 5 to 50 times by 2080 Beulah: 1.5 to 2 times by 2030 2 to 4.3 times by 2080 Carla (shifted): 1.1 to 1.3 times by 2030 1.3 to 2.1 times by 2080 20

21. Parcel Damages – Residential & Small Businesses Parcel Damages – Residential & Small Businesses: Bret: 1.5 to 2.1 times by 2030 2.1 to 7.3 times by 2080 Beulah: 1.1 to 1.2 times by 2030 1.2 to 2.1 times by 2080 Carla (shifted): 1.1 to 1.4 times by 2030 1.4 to 2.1 times by 2080 21

22. Parcel Damages – Refineries Bret: 1 to 1.2 times by 2030 1.2 to 9.2 times by 2080 Beulah: 1.1 to 1.2 times by 2030 1.2 to 1.9 times by 2080 Carla (shifted): 1.1 to 1.3 times by 2030 1.3 to 3.7 times by 2080 22

23. Parcel Damages – Downtown Bret: 1 to 26 times by 2030 26 to 382 times by 2080 Beulah: 1.2 to 1.5 times by 2030 1.5 to 2.2 times by 2080 Carla (shifted): 1.003 to 1.004 times by 2030 1.004 to 1.008 times by 2080 23

24. Parcel Damages – Barrier Island Bret: 5.2 to 14.9 times by 2030 14.9 to 126.6 times by 2080 Beulah: 1.7 to 2.9 times by 2030 2.9 to 4.2 times by 2080 Carla (shifted): 1 to 1.01 times by 2030 1.01 to 1.03 times by 2080 24

25. Inundated area : Up to 1.7 times more by 2030 Up to 3.7 times more by 2080 More frequently-occurring surge events have potential to have largest economic impact: $55M increase per 1 o C of warming (Bret) $75M increase per 1 o C of warming (Beulah) $210M increase per 1 o C of warming (Carla, shifted) Climate change has the greatest impact on smaller storms Barrier island inundation will occur more frequently Some notes: Economic evaluation only includes structural damages The City of Corpus Christi has more topographic relief than most other coastal Texas communities Conclusions 25

26. Questions? 26