1. Office of Coast Survey 2013 NOS Coastal Modeling Development and Performance Office of Coast Survey/Development Laboratory, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services Jesse C. Feyen (jesse.feyen@noaa.gov)jesse.feyen@noaa.gov 4 December 2013

2. Office of Coast Survey NOS’ Operational Coastal Modeling Office of Coast Survey / Coast Survey Development Laboratory / Marine Modeling and Analysis Programs –Focused on research and development –POCs: frank.aikman@noaa.gov, edward.myers@noaa.gov Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services / Oceanographic Division / Planning Monitoring and Analysis Branch –Focused on transition, operations, and delivery –POC: aijun.zhang@noaa.gov Work with NCEP, particularly NCO and EMC, on operations Collaboration with academic developers of FVCOM, ROMS, and ADCIRC models 2 http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/models.html

3. Office of Coast Survey Existing NOS OFS Running on WCOSS 3 OFS NameModel DomainNCO Implementation CBOFSChesapeake Bay03/2011 DBOFSDelaware Bay03/2011 TBOFSTampa Bay03/2011 NGOFSNorthern Gulf of Mexico03/2012 CREOFSColumbia River09/2012 GLOFS5 Great Lakes12/2010 ESTOFSAtlantic and Gulf of Mexico extratropical storm surge 09/2012

4. Office of Coast Survey FY13 Accomplishments All NOS “Oceanographic Operational Forecast Systems” (OFS) transitioned to WCOSS OFS output disseminated in SHEF format at NOS water level gauge locations Inundation Expanded coverage of HFIP-supported experimental tropical surge predictions using ADCIRC Surge Guidance System East Coast and Gulf Coast coverage 4

5. Office of Coast Survey FY14 Plans NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP –2 nested Northern Gulf of Mexico models: NWGOFS and NEGOFS –San Francisco Bay (SFBOFS) Inundation –Extratropical Storm Surge (ESTOFS) – Pacific transitioned to operations –Experimental real-time tropical storm surge ensemble predictions coupled to experimental hurricane guidance 5

6. Office of Coast Survey FY15-16 Planned Implementations NOS OFS to be transitioned to NCEP –Cook Inlet, AK (CIOFS) –Great Lakes OFS upgrades –NE Shelf/Gulf of Maine OFS (support for HAB pred.) Inundation –Sandy Supplemental: Development and Transition of ADCIRC Surge Ensemble for Atlantic Tropical and Extratropical Inundation 6

7. Office of Coast Survey

8. NWGOFS NEGOFS NGOFS Coastal/Shelf Models (Bridge between Global model and Estuarine/Bay models) Bay/Estuarine Models (high-resolution to resolve navigational needs) Nested Operational Forecast Systems for the Northwest and Northeast Gulf of Mexico Operational FY14 Q3

9. Office of Coast Survey NEGOFS Element Size: 45 m – 2160 m Vertical Sigma Layers: 20 Pascagoula: 45 – 1050 mMobile Bay: 45 m – 1.5 km Gulfport: 56 m – 986 m

10. Office of Coast Survey Galveston Bay: 80 – 530 m Sabine Neches: 60 – 540 m Lake Charles/Lake Calcasieu: 70 – 560 m Houston/Galveston PORTS Sabine Neches PORTS Lake Charles PORTS Matagorda Bay PORTS Element Size: 60 m – 3.5 km Rivers: 22 20 Sigma Vertical Layers 10

11. Office of Coast Survey Products from NWGOFS Water Level Surface TemperatureSurface Salinity Surface Currents

12. Office of Coast Survey Products from NEGOFS Water Level Surface TemperatureSurface Salinity Surface Currents

13. Office of Coast Survey San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS) Horizontal Resolution: 15 m – 1500 m 20 Vertical Sigma Layers Bathymetry in meters Operational FY14 Q2

14. Office of Coast Survey Products from SFBOFS Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sfbofs/sfbofs.html Water Level Surface Temperature Surface Salinity Surface Currents

15. Office of Coast Survey Products from SFBOFS Tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/sfbofs/sfbofs.html Water Level Surface Temperature Surface Salinity Surface Currents

16. Office of Coast Survey Storm Surge Modeling Efforts Using ADCIRC model for extratropical (e.g., nor’easter) and tropical (e.g., hurricane) – State of the art model in development and use by academia, private industry, USACE, FEMA, Navy – Uses large scale unstructured triangular grids with efficient localized resolution – Can combine surge, tides, rivers and wave input – Uses latest modeling physics – Surge model upgrades coordinated with NWS (e.g., Sandy Supplemental) to augment probabilistic approach with faster, simpler SLOSH model 16

17. Office of Coast Survey Computes ET surge and tides for forecasting and coupling to NWS’ WAVEWATCHIII® wave model Coastal resolution averages 3 km Hourly output of 6 hr nowcast + 180 hr forecast 4X per day East Coast operational in 2012 Pacific model in development, operational in FY14 Q3 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/ estofs/estofs_surge_info.shtml http://slosh.nws.noaa.gov/etsurge_ESTOFS/ Extratropical Surge and Tide Operational Forecast System (ESTOFS) 17

18. Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment 15-month period (11/16/2004 - 2/28/2006) covers two winter seasons GFS wind and pressure every 6 hrs

19. Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment RMSE (m) CO-OPS Station Number Hawaii So Cali Port Chicago Cook Inlet Puget Sd/SE AK Testing showed that tidal accuracy did not improve with increased resolution, adjusted bottom friction, or increased tidal potential term.

20. Office of Coast Survey Water Level Skill Assessment Skill in surge WL close to goal of 0.20 m RMSE

21. Office of Coast Survey Sandy Supplemental: ADCIRC Ensemble Tropical Surge Prediction Development of operational ensemble of ADCIRC surge+tide predictions of coastal inundation for TC and ET storms Predict tropical and extratropical inundation –TC ensemble members based on track perturbation –Potential ET ensemble members: GEFS, NDFD, NAM, ECMWF, SREF Experimental in FY15, operational in FY16 21 Potential coverage

22. Office of Coast Survey 22

23. Office of Coast Survey 1.Graphics on CO-OPS Web Site: 1.Time Series Plots (24 hour nowcast and 48 forecast) of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds at selected locations (all PORTS and NWLON stations and more) 2.Contour and vector map plots and animation of water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, and surface winds 2.Model data set on OPeNDAP and NOAA’s WOC:  station/point NetCDF files (6-minute output): time series model nowcast and forecast at selected stations for water levels, currents, temperature, salinity, surface winds  Field/gridded model output NetCDF file (hourly output)  2-D water levels and surface winds,  3-D currents, temperature and salinity on every model grid. Deliverable Modeling Products:

24. Office of Coast Survey Objectives of NOS Operational Forecast Systems Support of safe & efficient navigation Water levels for under-keel clearance Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability Emergency response Oil spills (OR&R) Search & Rescue Homeland Security For environmentally sound management of the coastal zone Ecological: hypoxia, HABs, pathogens, … Marine geospatial applications Salinity SST Sea Nettles 24

25. Office of Coast Survey Customer Feedback on OFS MD Pilots (J. Smith) –“Pilots are delighted with the modeling, forecasting, and real time PORTS data… We do our voyage planning with a heavy reliance on CBOFS forecasting and modeling…” DE Bay/River Pilots (S. Roberts) –“(DBOFS) allows us to identify tidal and wind conditions that may prevent the safe passage of deep loaded tankers before they are scheduled to get underway. It also allows our customers to identify conditions which may necessitate adjusting the draft of a ship to allow for less than adequate depths in advance saving them costs due to delays and aborted passages.” 25

26. Office of Coast Survey Customer Feedback on OFS USCG (A. Allen) –“… using NGOFS… to assist in the search for CG personnel lost in the crash of CG6535 in Mobile Bay… planning underwater searches based on the bottom currents from NGOFS” NWS (B. Schneider, WFO Portland) –“Receiving accurate model output for the Columbia River Bar and Tillamook River Bar is central to WFO Portland’s effort to improving forecasts for these areas” 26

27. Office of Coast Survey Experimental High Res Surge Ensemble ADCIRC Surge Guidance System –Automated system for ADCIRC NOAA tested in Gulf of Mexico in 2012 on experimental HFIP computer “tjet” –5 to 10 member ensemble Expanded coverage in 2013 to prepare for transition to operations –Tested during Karen –Output delivered via CSDL OPeNDAP and VizTool 27 Model grid Model topobathy in Chesapeake http://coastalmodeldev.data.noaa.gov/thredds/catalog.html