1. Estimating Activity Durations Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.

2. Course on Project Management Purpose Accuracy matters Accuracy matters

3. Course on Project Management Implicit Assumptions Revealed More people, less time More people, less time

4. Course on Project Management Source of Data Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studies Time studies Statistical analysis Statistical analysis

5. Course on Project Management Source of Data Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studies Time studies Statistical analysis Statistical analysis

6. Course on Project Management Source of Data Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studies Time studies Stop motion studies Stop motion studies Diary Diary Statistical analysis Statistical analysis

7. Course on Project Management Source of Data Expert opinions Expert opinions Time studies Time studies Statistical analysis Statistical analysis

8. Course on Project Management Assessing Experts Opinions Assumptions Assumptions Estimate, talk and estimate Estimate, talk and estimate Delphi Delphi

9. Course on Project Management Assessing Experts Opinions Assumptions Assumptions Estimate, talk and estimate Estimate, talk and estimate Delphi Delphi

10. Course on Project Management Assessing Experts Opinions Assumptions Assumptions Estimate, talk and estimate Estimate, talk and estimate Delphi Delphi

11. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate

12. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Thanks for agreeing to help us…please write down …

13. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Responses from different expert are collected and displayed on the flip chart without attribution

14. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate This is great. Lets discuss why it could take a long time…

15. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Well it depends on the experience of the person configuring the system

16. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate And it also depends on how cooperative the clinicians are.

17. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Discussion of Assumptions

18. Course on Project Management Example of Estimate Talk Estimate You have said … please re- estimate…

19. Course on Project Management PERT Optimistic Optimistic Realistic Realistic Pessimistic Pessimistic

20. Course on Project Management PERT Optimistic Optimistic Realistic Realistic Pessimistic Pessimistic

21. Course on Project Management PERT Dialogue How long do you think it would take to send 100 surveys out?

22. Course on Project Management PERT Dialogue It all depends. I have seen people do it in 6 hours and I have seen others do it in 1 hour.

23. Course on Project Management PERT Dialogue But given what I know about your operations I think it will take 2 hours.

24. Course on Project Management PERT Dialogue

25. Take Home Lesson Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can increase accuracy of estimate of duration of activities