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The Graduation Cohort Α to Ω 1
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The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 required states to establish data systems to track the rate of students who graduate “on time” with a “regular diploma.” Link to cohort rules as currently required by US ED (4/28/2010) http://www.mde.k12.ms.us/dropout_prevention/hsgrguidance.pdf http://www.mde.k12.ms.us/dropout_prevention/hsgrguidance.pdf 2
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Louisiana began tracking the 9 th grade class of 2002-03 and used their graduation rates of 2005-06 in the subgroup component (NCLB) in the fall 2007 accountability release. 3
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Louisiana uses the same definition of “cohort” to generate the graduation index that counts for 30% of a high school’s SPS. 4
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5 The examples in this presentation are based on a 9 th grade cohort beginning in the fall of 2010.
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6 Cohort membership is established at the state level. All students enter a cohort when they are enrolled in SIS as first time 9 th graders. Students are never moved from one cohort to another.
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7 Take all students enrolled in the State Student Information System (SIS) as 9 th graders in 2010-11. 9 th Graders 2010-11
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8 Remove any student who appeared in SIS as a 9 th, 10 th, 11 th, or 12 th grader in the previous 3 years. First Time 9 th Graders 2010-11 9-12 2009-10 9-12 2008-09 9-12 2007-08
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9 This is the “starting” freshman cohort. First Time 9 th Graders 2010-11 All of these students will appear on someone’s cohort roster.
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10 Add any student who transfers into the state public school system from Oct. 1, 2010 until EOY 2014. All of these students will appear on someone’s cohort roster.
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11 Remove any student who “transfers” out of the Louisiana public school system from Oct. 1, 2010 until EOY 2014. Adjusted 2014 Graduating Cohort The remaining students will be included in the calculations.
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12 Count the total number of students. Count the number of students who have earned a diploma by Oct. 1, 2014. Divide the number of diplomas by the total number of students. G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G G Adjusted 2014 Graduating Cohort
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13 2006 Louisiana Graduating Cohort 48,874 members 31,670 graduates (on time with at least a regular diploma) 64.8% 2007 Louisiana Graduating Cohort 49,102 members 32,555 graduates (on time with at least a regular diploma) 66.3% 2008 Louisiana Graduating Cohort 49,543 members 32,627 graduates (on time with at least a regular diploma) 66.0% 2009 Louisiana Graduating Cohort (preliminary) 66.6%
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14 We established all cohort members in the state, and we know which students earned a standard diploma in 4 years (or less). In fact, we know how every student exited the system (grad, GED, skills certificate, etc.). Moving from State Cohort to District
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15 All students in the state files are placed in a district and school file, BUT all of the students do not count in the calculation Moving from State Cohort to District
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16 To calculate for a district, take all students who: 1.count in the state; and 2.have their last enrollment record in the specific district; and 3.were enrolled in the district before Oct. 1, 2012 (cohort year 3) Moving from State Cohort to District
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17 To calculate for a school, take all students who: 1.count in the district; and 2.have their last enrollment record in the specific school; and 3.were enrolled in the school before Oct. 1, 2013 (cohort year 4) Moving from District Cohort to School
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18 As previously noted, a cohort is defined the same for Graduation Rate and for Graduation Index. Grad Rate simply asks what percentage of the cohort graduated on time – similar to a student being proficient or not on ELA and math. Index vs Rate
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19 Grad Index breaks the two categories (grad and non-grad) into many. Note - the career diploma will be considered a regular diploma. Index vs Rate
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Non-Graduate 20 Academic OR Career/Technical Endorsement TOPS Opportunity Award BESE Approved Industry Based Certification OR TOPS Tech and Dual Enrollment OR TOPS Tech and Articulated Credit Regular HS Diploma GED Skills Certificate/Certificate of Achievement Attendee Dropout Standard Diploma = Graduate Non-Graduate
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21 Students who continue in school a 5 th and/or 6 th year can earn incentive points for the school. A student who is counted as an attendee in year 4 (30 pts), who continues and earns a diploma in year 5 (120 pts), earns 90 incentive points. Incentive Points
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Saintly Data for a Clean Calculation
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23 We can’t calculate an accurate score if we aren’t using accurate data, and the only data we have is what you submitted.
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There’s nothing easy about it. Also applies to CATE, SER, STS, LOSFA 24
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But some things are easier than others, 25 SIS Data Certification and the easiest is doing it right the first time.
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Student Information System (SIS) 26 SIS is the most important! 1. MFP $$ 2. Assessment 3. Attendance 4. In and Out -When Why How
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Student Information System (SIS) 27 The most important for Grad Data In and Out -When Why How Determines 1. If the student is in the cohort 2. Why the student counts 3. How the student may “count”
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28 We use 8 years of SIS data to create the building blocks for the cohort. An error in any one of those years can mean an error in the final cohort results. It is essential that SIS be “clean” each and every year at least 3 times a year – Oct. 1, Feb. 1., EOY Student Information System (SIS)
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Second Chance (and 3 rd, 4 th, 5 th, 6 th ) larger load, higher hill 29 SIS
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30 You have multiple opportunities to check and correct the data – for at least 6 months after EOY. Student Information System (SIS)
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Scenario 1 Your superintendent attends a “retreat” in fall 2010 and receives a handout showing declining district AND school grad rates. How do you find out where the problem is? 31
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Scenario 1 If there is an error, it is in the 8 years of SIS data we used for our calculation. That information is summarized in the grad cohort rosters – available in the following spring. 32
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Scenario 1 Districts have traditionally had around 6 months after the end of a school year to correct SIS data, but this may shorten this year. The data certification process is your last chance. 33
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Scenario 1 And I hope we can move data certification to the last SIS cleanup window. 34
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Last Chance Data Certification
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Last Chance For the first time, you have a chance to correct the data BEFORE it is used in accountability. This doesn’t mean it wasn’t reported before and you may have taken heat over the numbers. 36
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Last Chance Up until now, you have kept records related to the cohort scores in your district/schools – we haven’t asked for proof. Now, you have to contact each school, collect documentation, and send it to the LDE. 37
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Scenario 2 At the preliminary accountability release in 2012 (AUS <75), your high school has an SPS of 74.9. You are required to implement sanctions, which requires the revision of your Title 1 budget and all of the delightful repercussions associated with it. 38
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Now you get to explain to your superintendent and board exactly how this happened. They ask if it’s possible the “state” made an error. Data Certification occurred before the release. 39 Scenario 2
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Cohort Ins and Outs Driven by: Federal Policy (and NCES) Louisiana Policy Data Collection Systems LEA Data Submission – LDE Timelines National Governor’s Association 40
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41 So, why is this student a dropout? This refers to the dropout roster that deals with 1 year of data only – not the cohort. Who was enrolled in academic year XX-XX and who can’t be accounted for on Oct. 1 the following year? The documentation required for certain exit codes is changing in Bulletin 111.
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If a student exits with code 08 or 09 that student must show up in the LA state system by the following October 1 st. Failure to locate the student in SIS by October 1 st results in a dropout. 000411 Cranberry High School BISHUP, JOSHUA23322070501/06/199009308/17/2007E112/17/200708Y 000411 Cranberry High School BANKS, ROBB63157647808/27/199110508/17/2007E101/15/200809Y Site CodeSite NameStudent NameStudent IDBirth DateGradeEthnicityEntry Date Entry CodeExit Date Exit Code Drop Flag Transfer within district/Transfer within state: 42
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If a student exits with code 11 that student is required to obtain a GED by October 1 st of the following school year. Upon GED completion, a school must re-enroll the student for 1 day, enter and exit date = same day, exit code = 05. Failure to do so results in a dropout. Site CodeSite NameStudent NameStudent IDBirth DateGradeEthnicityEntry Date Entry CodeExit Date Exit Code Drop Flag 000411 Cranberry High School ARMSTRONG, MAC93631134810/17/199209508/17/2007E108/17/200711Y Transfer to Adult Education: 43
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If a student exits with code 01 that student must re- enroll in school by October 1 st of the following school year. Failure to do results in a dropout. Site CodeSite NameStudent NameStudent IDBirth DateGradeEthnicityEntry Date Entry CodeExit Date Exit Code Drop Flag 000411 Cranberry High School BRIDGES, ALLISON39192788008/24/198712308/23/2006E211/01/200601Y Expulsion (no option to return/with return date): 44
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No Show: Site CodeSite NameStudent NameStudent IDBirth DateGradeEthnicityEntry Date Entry CodeExit Date Exit Code Drop Flag 000411 Cranberry High School BLUEBERRY, JAM76103032705/03/199110308/17/2007E108/17/200718Y If a student exits with code 18, or fails to return to school by October 1 st of the following school year, the student is a “No Show”. Failure to provide verifiable documentation that the student is enrolled elsewhere results in a dropout. 45
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Grad Cohort in Data Cert Tips to Save Time “How to Say Please”
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The Key Points for Data Certification How is the student counted? How “should” the student be counted? Why should the student be counted as you request? What documentation do you have to support the request? 47
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The Key Points for Data Certification If the explanation is not clear, we will not explore the data to figure out what you may want. Timelines are tight and will get tighter. 48
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The Key Points for Data Certification For the upcoming grad cohort data certification, we are dealing with the first time freshmen of 2005-06, the graduating class of Spring 2009. We don’t count anything that occurred after Oct. 1, 2009. Don’t request points for a student that “finished” during 2009-10. 49
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Student NameEntry DateExit DateExit Code Policy Peter Pan08/10/200705/18/200811Must obtain GED by Oct. 1, 2008 Robin Hood08/10/200809/17/200811Must obtain GED by Oct. 1, 2009 GED – a student is required to obtain a GED by October 1 st of the following school year to avoid being counted as a dropout in the cohort. Upon GED completion, a school must re-enroll the student for 1 day, enter and exit date = same day, exit code = 05 50 The Key Points for Data Certification
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GEE – a student is must pass the GEE by the first day of the following school year to earn grad points. Upon GEE completion, a school must re-enroll the student for 1 day, enter and exit date = same day, exit code = 04 Student NameSchool YearEntry DateExit DateExit CodeCohort End Status Peter Pan2007-200808/10/200705/18/200817Attendee Peter Pan2008-200908/10/2008 04Graduate * Failure to properly identify the GEE student as a summer grad results in the student remaining an attendee. Proof of graduation will grant incentive points the following year. 51 The Key Points for Data Certification Student appears twice on roster.
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School ID School Name Last Name First Name Student ID Birthday Year Student Entered Cohort Last Grade Place- ment Exit Date Exit Code End Category Determination Points Awarded Site Flag LEA Flag 123123 Disney High CLUCK BUCKXXXX08/29/1989Freshman1205/3/200704Graduate140YY 123123 Disney HighCROCKET DAVEYXXXX07/28/1989 Sophomore1209/29/200602 Dropout0YY 123123 Disney High DEVIL, CRUELLXXXX07/29/1989Junior1211/1/200614 Legitimate LeaverN/ANN 123123 Disney HighFROLLO CLAUDEXXXX06/12/1988Freshman0908/7/200510 Legitimate LeaverN/AYY 123123 Disney HighHUDSON DOCXXXX08/10/1988 Freshman 12 10/24/2006 11 Attendee 30Y Y 123123 Disney HighPOPPINS MARYXXXX10/12/1988 Freshman 12 05/30/2007 04 Graduate 120N N 123123 Disney HighROBINS CHRISXXXX03/08/1987 Freshman12 Attendee30YY 123123 Disney HighSANDERSON GEORGEXXXX09/16/1989 Freshman1105/31/200605 GED90YY 123123 Disney HighVALIANT EDDIEXXXX02/03/1989 Freshman1205/30/200706 Completer60YY Sponsor Site: 123 Walt Parish School: 123123 Disney High School 2007 Graduation Cohort Roster Sample - LDE Graduation Cohort Roster 52
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53 A student must be enrolled in the district by Oct. 1 of year 3 to count in the district cohort (LEA flag = Y). A student must count in the district cohort and be enrolled in the school by Oct. 1 of year 4 to count in the school cohort (Site flag = Y). ONLY SUBMIT REQUESTS FOR KIDS THAT COUNT
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Original Cohort End Year School IDSchool NameStudent Name Student IDBirth Date Prior End Cat Description Current End Cat Description Prior Grad Points Earned Incentive Points Actual Points Earned 2007123123Disney High BERRY, HOLLIEXXXXXX07/29/1989Attendee Certificate Completer306030 2007123123Disney HighCORE, APPLEXXXXXX09/21/1988AttendeeDropout300 2007123123Disney HighGRIZZLEE, BEARXXXXXX10/14/1988AttendeeGraduate3012090 2006123123Disney HighMOORE, LEESISXXXXXX09/22/1988AttendeeGraduate3012090 Sample - LDE Incentive Points Roster 2007 Graduation Incentive Points Roster Sponsor Site: 123 Walt Parish School: 123123 Disney High School Points earned from the original 4-year cohort Incentive Points earned at the end of year 5 or end of year 6 ** A student listed as a Dropout on the incentive points roster does not count against the site. It is listed for informational purposes only. 54
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While we are on Incentive Points You don’t get points if you didn’t earn them. Student exits to adult ed and gets a GED 2 years later. School does not get points. Student is no show at beginning of 10 th grade. You send a diploma from a private school 3 years later. Student is still a dropout (need request for records dated before Oct. 1 of “no show” year). 55
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Cohort Grads Student goes to credit recovery for 3 months, catches up, and graduates with class. The original high school didn’t do the work that allowed the student to graduate on time. Why should they get credit? 56
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Cohort in General We are finding instances where policy is not being followed in the computer code as intended. The programs were written before the details of policy. Insufficient staff may prevent the changes from being made this year. Consider it a gift! 57
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Accountability Update Changes of Note March ’09 to April ‘10 And “THE FEDS” for Fall 2010
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59 Differentiated Accountability SES before Choice
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60 Grad Cohort This exit code can only be used when the student is transferring to a school that awards standard diplomas. Transfer to Non-Public
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61 Student Result Points Academic OR Career/Technical Endorsement 180 TOPS Opportunity Award 160 BESE Approved Industry Based Certification OR TOPS Tech and Dual Enrollment OR TOPS Tech and Articulated Credit 140 Regular HS Diploma 120 GED 90 Skills Certificate/Certificate of Achievement 60 Attendee 30 Dropout 0 Grad Index
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62 Grad Index Incentive Points The student must be enrolled for 45 consecutive days in the school that earns the incentive points (except GEE only). Incentive points must be earned within 2 years of the 4 th year of high school. Incentive points are not routed.
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63 Alternative Schools For challenged students only Minimum n of 40 All FAY students count for assessment All non-FAY are routed Pre-GED are not routed from alternative schools.
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64 Alternative Schools Includes subgroup COMPONENT LSMSA still routes scores Alternatives route to SENDING schools regardless of grade Adjudicated – scores go with the MFP (legislation pending)
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65 Alternative Schools No routing across district lines There is no indication that alternative schools will be excused from SPS or Subgroup. The alternative accountability system is still being considered.
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66 Alternative Schools Submit closures or changes to Sponsor Site Address the test security issues of programs
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67 Recovery School District Revisions to law allow this after 5 years in the RSD. Return to LEA
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68 Limited English Proficient To exit LEP status; A K-2 student must score for 2 consecutive years; at Composite Level 5 on ELDA or a combination of 1 year at Composite level 5 and 1 year at grade-level/benchmark/low-risk on DRA or DIBELS
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69 Alternate Assessment Performance Levels LAA 1 Performance LevelAssessment Points Exceeds Standard *150 Meets Standard*100 Working Toward Standard50 Failed to Test or Ineligible0 LAA 2 Performance LevelAssessment Points Basic*150 Approaching Basic*100 Foundational50 Pre-Foundational0 * Considered Proficient in Subgroup Calculations
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70 Alternate Assessment Limits and Assigned Zeroes Student is assigned zeroes on all 4 tests if the IEP in SER at the time of testing does not specify that the student qualifies for LAA. Student is assigned “non-proficient” in subgroup calculations if the state or the district exceed the “cap.”
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71 Alternate Assessment Limits and Assigned Zeroes The LAA 1 Calculation What is the DISTRICT testing population on the day of testing? 6126 What is 1% of the testing population? 62 (round up to a whole student) How many LAA 1 students scored ‘proficient’ after zeroes were assigned for ineligibility? 73 11 students are non-proficient at SCHOOL, DISTRICT and STATE levels in all applicable subgroups.
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72 Alternate Assessment Limits and Assigned Zeroes The LAA 2 Calculation (completed after LAA 1) Same as LAA 1 but use 2% and … If LAA 1 does not exceed the cap, then LAA 1 + LAA 2 can equal 3% of the testing population. If LAA 1 exceeds the cap, then the LAA 2 limit is 2%
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73 Alternate Assessment Limits and Assigned Zeroes Reportedly, many districts will exceed the 2% cap. We are required by NCLB to assign zeroes.
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74 Never Presented in Update Recent Changes Submitted for NOI
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75 Academically Unacceptable Schools Performance LabelSchool Performance Score Academically Unacceptable Below 60.0 (through 2010) Below 65.0 (in 2011) Below 75.0 (in 2012) Academic Watch 60 - 74.9 (in 2010) 65.0 - 74.9 (in 2011) ★ 60.0 – 79.9 (through 2009) 75 – 79.9 (beginning in 2010) Academic Watch lists will be released at the preliminary release.
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76 Graduation Index Adjustment School’s Earned Graduation Rate -Graduation Rate Target Target Rate Difference X 1.5 (adjustment factor) Adjusted Graduation Rate Index Graduation Rate Targets 201165% 201270% 201375% 201480% Compliance with Nevers’s Bill - 2009 Session
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77 Graduation Index Adjustment IMPACT Schools with grad rates equal to the target in a given year will not be adjusted. Schools with a grad rates that exceed the target will be adjusted upward. Those with grad rates less than the target will be adjusted downward.
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78 Reconfigured Schools Historically the LDE has gone to great lengths to create new baseline scores for reconfigured/consolidated schools. Data will no longer be moved. The reconfigured school will not receive a growth score the first year it operates under the new structure. It will receive a new baseline.
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79 New Schools New schools in existing districts will enter accountability after the first year of being open. New schools in new districts and new charters unaffiliated with a district will enter accountability after their second year of operation. New high schools will receive grad cohort calculations after 2 years of data are gathered.
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80 Disaster – Severe Impact Schools The year following the disaster Severe Impact Schools shall be considered new schools and enter accountability according to “new school” policy.
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81 High School Transition to EOC 2010 is the last administration of iLEAP 2010 Performance Labels shall be assigned to Baseline SPS using traditional calculations. A transition Baseline will be calculated for 2010 using GEE assessment results. 2011 Growth and Baseline SPS will use GEE assessment results.
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82 High School Transition to EOC A transition Baseline will be calculated for 2011 using EOC assessment results. 2012 Growth and Baseline SPS will use EOC assessment results.
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83 NEW RELEASE Feds Approve Louisiana Grad Rate Proposal for Use in Fall 2010 Release First Public Announcement
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84 Federal Policy The new rules have not been written into policy yet. We know they will include new and stricter requirements concerning exit code documentation and legitimate leaver definitions.
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85 Federal Policy The long term Louisiana minimally acceptable grad rate goal - 80% in 2022. State starting point for 2011 (using 2009 data) – 63% State annual targets Louisiana Annual Graduation Rate Targets 2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 2022 63.0%64.3%65.6%66.9%68.2%69.5%70.8%72.2%73.5%74.8%76.1%77.4%78.7% 80.0%
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86 Federal Policy To determine if a high school has met the Additional Academic Indicator; 1.Did the school meet the LA goal of 80%?; if no, 2.Did the school meet the annual LA target (63% in 2010 (using 2009 data)?; if no,
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87 Federal Policy To determine if a high school has met the Additional Academic Indicator; School Target Step Calculation Annual Target Step is the amount a school must improve its graduation rate every year to meet 80% in 2022. (80.0 - 2007 grad rate)/15}
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88 Federal Policy To determine if a high school has met the Additional Academic Indicator; 3.Did the school meet the annual school target?; if no, This table provides the trajectory of schools at 5% intervals – all ending with 80% in 2022. 2007 Annual Target Step 2009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021 60.0%1.3%62.7%64.0%65.3%66.7%68.0%69.3%70.7%72.0%73.3%74.7%76.0%77.3%78.7% 55.0%1.7%58.3%60.0%61.7%63.3%65.0%66.7%68.3%70.0%71.7%73.3%75.0%76.7%78.3% 50.0%2.0%54.0%56.0%58.0%60.0%62.0%64.0%66.0%68.0%70.0%72.0%74.0%76.0%78.0% 45.0%2.3%49.7%52.0%54.3%56.7%59.0%61.3%63.7%66.0%68.3%70.7%73.0%75.3%77.7% 40.0%2.7%45.3%48.0%50.7%53.3%56.0%58.7%61.3%64.0%66.7%69.3%72.0%74.7%77.3% 35.0%3.0%41.0%44.0%47.0%50.0%53.0%56.0%59.0%62.0%65.0%68.0%71.0%74.0%77.0% 30.0%3.3%36.7%40.0%43.3%46.7%50.0%53.3%56.7%60.0%63.3%66.7%70.0%73.3%76.7%
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89 Federal Policy To determine if a high school has met the Additional Academic Indicator; 4.Did the school meet 110% of the annual target step? A school at 50% in 2007 has an “annual target step” of 2.0. 110% of 2.0 is 2.2, so the school passes AAI if it grew 2.2% in the past year. A “YES” at any time means the school passed the AAI.
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90 Federal Policy This applies to “whole school” and to subgroups in “safe harbor” in 2010 and 2011. It will apply to all subgroups in 2012 and future – a new AMO.
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91 Federal Policy Bulletin 111 will require substantial revision to comply with the new federal rules. It should go to BESE in June or July depending on the BESE office. You have sufficient information to estimate how your schools will fare this fall.
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92 Policy changes are published in the Louisiana Register after BESE initially approves. They are also summarized in the District Superintendents’ Update http://www.louisianaschools.net/lde/superintendent/1839.asp
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93 Policy Staff Wendy.Baudoin@la.govWendy.Baudoin@la.gov 225-342-3461 Thelma.Bibbs@la.govThelma.Bibbs@la.gov 225-219-7512 John.Bishop@la.govJohn.Bishop@la.gov 225-342-3512 Erica.Thomas@la.govErica.Thomas@la.gov 225-342-2464 Li.Liu@la.gov Zhanying.Zong@la.gov tspencer@la.gov BULLETIN 111-The LA School, District, and State Accountability System B111 lags several months All policy http://www.doe.state.la.us/lde/bese/1041.html http://www.doe.state.la.us/lde/bese/1041.html
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