1. Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning Project By Predrag Mikša EKC - Electricity Coordinating Center Istanbul, March 2011

2. Black Sea Transmission Project History of BSTP BSTP Established in 2004 with signing of the Sofia Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) Members reaffirmed commitment in 2007/2008 with signing of Phase II MOU Phase I concluded in 2007 Phase II was concluded in February 2010

3. Black Sea Transmission Project BSTP Project Goals Promote regional transmission planning among Black Sea TSO’s Harmonize transmission planning principles and methodologies Identify priority investments in national transmission systems & interconnections between countries

4. Black Sea Transmission Project BSTP Project Objectives Create sustainable international expert transmission planning Working Group (WG) Support common planning software platform (PSS/E) Analyze the regional system to identify bottlenecks (congestion) Identify potential transmission investments needed to enhance trade Promote analytical results to policy & regulatory authorities

5. Black Sea Transmission Project BSTP Phase I & II Results Phase I and II of the BSTP Developed and Refined Load Flow and Dynamic Regional Transmission System Models for 2015 and 2020 Identified Net Transfer Capacities Based on Technical Limitations of the Network Findings Confirmed the Network is Generally Robust  Stability Issues in the Caucasus Region  Lack of Connections (Synchronous or Asynchronous) Limits Transfer Both Within the Region and with Neighboring Region

6. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#1 Regional model – modeled systems Transmission networks of all power systems in the region RussiaRomania Georgia UkraineBulgaria Armenia MoldovaTurkey Equivalent of western and south-eastern UCTE grid (ENTSO-E)

7. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#1 Regional model - characteristics High voltage network-transmission network  750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV network  Generator units at their nominal voltage level  Step-up transformers for main generation capacities All new substations and lines that are expected to be operational till 2020 (according to the long term development plans) Development of Regional model Guidelines

8. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK #1 Regimes to model/update Load flow Model update/upgrade  Regimes to model Present situation  2010 Winter peak,  2010 Summer off-peak  2010 Summer peak Realistic plans 2015  2015 Winter peak  2015 Summer peak  2015 Summer off-peak Realistic plans 2020  2020 Winter peak  2020 Summer peak  2020 Summer off-peak

9. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK #1 Regimes to model/update Load/Demand modeling  Proposal medium load/demand forecasts Renewables  Identifying (put them in adequate zone by type)  Rough estimation about connection  Necessary network reinforcements to support renewables Network reinforcements modeling  Realistic plans  Plans vs realization (past analyses)  Other projects

10. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#2 Regional data collection demand/generation Load/Demand data  High demand scenario  Medium demand scenario  Low demand scenario Generation expansion plans  Realistic scenario  Type of new power plants, and fuel used  Renewables Level of engagement Level of development Integration of data to Regional report

11. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#3 – Renewables data collection Renewables Generation expansion plans  Wind  Small hydro  Other  Estimated connection to grid  Market approach (feed in tariff and price,…)  Rules of engagement Each country to prepare country report, Model integrator to prepare regional overview and regional report

12. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#4 – OPF data collection Questionnaire is developed to collect generation data  Generation data Type of power plant (thermal, hydro, nuclear etc… Type of fuel used (gas, coal – lignite, brown coal, nuclear fuel imported etc…) Fixed running costs Variable running costs Rules of engagement  Two parts Obligatory  Type of power plant (hydro, gas fired, coal…)  Fuel used and pricing and Fuel energy (caloric value of fuel)  Installed capacity (max, min production level) …… Non obligatory (dependable on model building approach)  Other economical data (question for availability…) OPF training

13. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#5 – OPF model construction PSSE OPF is tool used to find an optimum operating position considering the cost of competing objectives such as minimizing:  Fuel Costs  Power Slack Generation  Transmission System Technical Losses  Cross Boarder (Interface) Flows  Reactive Generation Reserves Required Generation data  Type of power plant (thermal, hydro, nuclear etc…  Type of fuel used (gas, coal – lignite, brown coal, nuclear fuel imported etc…)  Fixed running costs  Variable running costs  Rules of engagement  Generic generation cost curves (in first step, to be adjusted by project participants according to real data) Network data  Network grid code rules and recommendations  Technical constraints

14. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#5 – OPF model construction Generic Cost Curve will be developed by USEA and EKC (based on questionnaire collected data) To be reviewed, revised and approved by TSO’s (depending on the approach they chose) TSOs will enter themselves network OPF data (thermal limits, voltage limitations…) USEA and EKC will integrate these in regional model to be used for regional and national OPF studies

15. Black Sea Transmission Project Task#6 – Regional model analyses Load flow analyses  loading of the network  feasibility of base case exchanges  voltage profile analyses  contingency analyses (n-1 security check) Border capacity overview Evaluation of network transfer capabilities Evaluation of Renewables integration  High renewables engagement scenario  Critical loss of wind power (selection of scenarios) Identify the existing potential for electric power trade in the region Verify values through dynamic analyses  Critical regimes (exchange)  Select outage to investigate  Monitor machines

16. Black Sea Transmission Project TASK#7 – Market analyses Generation surplus projections in Black Sea region and electricity market scenarios in the period 2010 - 2020  analyses of present and future generation expansion plans and electricity prices (according to production costs and fuel costs)  evaluation of transfer capacities (ENTSO-E methodology)  Identifying market realistic scenarios (using PSS/E OPF)  Evaluation of network adequacy

17. Black Sea Transmission Project Thank You!