1. Estimating Task Durations Methodologies and Psychology of Estimating

2. Project Schedules and Estimates Accuracy at the task level translates up to the accuracy at the project level Consistency is key

3. Estimating the unknown How long does it take to catch a fish? Might be right away Might be never Might be anything in between

4. Estimating the unknown Apply metrics to the madness What is ‘most likely’ to happen?

5. Estimating the unknown What are the required ‘tools’ to complete the task? Do we need to acquire the tools before attempting the task?

6. Estimating the unknown Multiple tasks create an accumulation of guesses ‘Buffers’ 5+5=13

7. So what do we do? Buffers are not secrets Everyone knows durations are buffered

8. What Does the Task Duration Really Represent? Discussion

9. Here are several approaches to estimating task durations: Elapsed Time vs. Working Time Task Time vs. Resource Time Interface Losses & Delays Theoretical Duration vs. Experience

10. Elapsed Time vs. Working Time We don’t work ALL the time

11. Task Time vs. Resource Time The number of people involved affects the elapsed time

12. Interface Losses & Delays How do we represent these spans of time to accommodate ‘buffers’ / ‘losses’?

13. Theoretical Duration vs. Experience What I know SHOULD happen vs. What I know Will happen

14. Here are a few traps to note:

15. Traps: Math Improper use of averaging

16. Trap: Skill Levels, Learning Curves & Priorities Know your people Know your priorities

17. Task Duration Estimation PERT Method (a + 4b + c) / 6

18. PERT Method Document the estimation process

19. Delphi Method WAG and SWAG

20. The Psychology of Task Durations 10 days to do 5 days of work. Why?

21. The Psychology of Task Durations Work seems to expand if we have time for it

22. The Psychology of Task Durations Do it tomorrow

23. The Psychology of Task Durations Padding – we can’t seem to win either way

24. The Psychology of Task Durations It seems for many it is natural to keep working until we are out of time or late

25. Practical Time Estimating We must pad or buffer We must be realistic Where’s the balance?

26. Practical Time Estimating There are methods that are tried and true

27. Practical Time Estimating Technique Example 1

28. Practical Time Estimating Technique Example 2

29. Practical Time Estimating Technique Example 3

30. Practical Time Estimating Technique Example 4

31. Develop consistency in estimating Follow standards

32. Key factors in achieving project success Know your objectives and these will drive your approach to Task Duration Estimations

33. Estimating Task Durations Standards Documentation Communication