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Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP): an analysis using play-by- play data William Knapp and Dr. Jason A. Osborne, Dept. of Mathematics and Dept. of Statistics,

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Presentation on theme: "Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP): an analysis using play-by- play data William Knapp and Dr. Jason A. Osborne, Dept. of Mathematics and Dept. of Statistics,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Baserunner Scoring Percentage (BSP): an analysis using play-by- play data William Knapp and Dr. Jason A. Osborne, Dept. of Mathematics and Dept. of Statistics, N.C. State University

2 Introduction What is BSP? Which teams have the best BSP? Effect of sacrifice bunts and stolen bases BSP as a predictor for runs scored and wins Methodology Linear and logistic regression Correlation

3 Data Acquisition Web-scraping and parsing with R and Java R functions: readLines() and regexp() Java: sort into arrays and change certain variables to binary

4 Analysis: Sacrifice and SB effects OutsBuntAttemptSBattemptEst. ProbStd Error 0No 0.38740.000910 0NoYes0.37160.003404 0YesNo0.51920.002538 0Yes 0.58330.012930 1No 0.24880.000744 1NoYes0.26610.003301 1YesNo0.35540.005538 1Yes 0.51950.040670 2No 0.14330.000649 2NoYes0.16690.003238 2YesNo-- 2Yes --

5 Analysis: MLR on Runs and Wins Variables# of Predictorsrsqrpgrsqwlpct obp1.8202.2821 bsp1.7335.1987 hr1.4982.1866 lob1.2227.0984 obp bsp2.9147.2922 obp hr2.9005.3171 obp lob2.8846.2913 bsp hr2.8732.2695 bsp lob2.8063.2431 lob hr2.6322.2487 obp bsp hr lob4.9776.3235

6 BSP vs Winning Percentage Scatter of all 30 teams over all 16 years Individual teams to show trends Houston needs some work


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