1. Targeting and impact of measures to improve employability Anna Adamecz Ágota Scharle Budapest Institute for Policy Analysis www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

2. Outline  Selecting programmes for the study  Data sources  Access and targeting  Raw reemployment rates  Impact analysis  Lessons  Recommendations www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

3. Selecting programmes  HU vs EU15 employment gap: largely due to low emp of uneducated  most long term unemployed are uneducated  NLO admin data are accessible  5 programmes targeting the uneducated, administered by NLO, between 2007 and 2010  covering 56 % of total expenditure in SROP www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

4. Design of selected programmes  complex: mentoring, training, wage subsidy srop 111 – disabled jobseekers srop 112 – primary ed, long term unemployed srop 113 – long term unemployed (SA)  targeted wage subsidy srop 121 – long term unemployed (low ed/older)  training and adult education srop 211 – jobseekers with primary education www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

5. Data sources  Official progress reports  NLO unemployment register (individuals) stock of 20 Jan 2009 inflow bween 20 Jan 2009 – 20 Jan 2010  NLO program participants (individuals) entering before 31 Dec 2010  Tax registry data on start of work contract for control and treated, until Oct 2012 www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

6. Access and targeting srop111srop112srop113srop121srop211 Relevant target group primary ed long term unemp SA + Roma, primary ed primary ed long term unemp + SA primary ed Other target groups new disab. benefit + DA school leaver 50 ys maternity <35 ys school leaver disabled lone parent School leaver >50 ys maternity vocation participants (thnds) 11.050.35.8(13.0)18.5 p/t (%)23272n.a.3 www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

7. Share of uneducated (%) www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

8. Raw reemployment indicators Official progress reports (OPR)  during/straight after program or on day 180  excludes public works  only those completing the programme NLO  within 180 days or any time until Oct 2012  or did not reregister within 180 days  includes public works  all those entering the programme www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

9. Raw reemployment rates % 1.1.11.1.2.1.1.3 OPR indicators Exit to employment164860 Employed on day 180263410 NLO indicators Exit to job within 180 days306155 Exit to job any time until Oct 2012688784 Did not return to NLO register76 65 www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

10. Impact analysis: the method  Impact of programme participation on probability of reemployment  Compare observed outcome to „What if?”  Compare to counterfactual  Select control group by matching (propensity score)  Control group with same observed characteristics (age, sex, education, employment history, location) www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

11. Impact of SROP 113 (men) www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

12. Impact of SROP 1.1.1. and 1.1.3.  Reemployment rate much higher for participants  srop 1.1.1: higher by 53-51 %points  srop 1.1.3: higher by 57-50 %points  Upper bound: large, positive w upward bias  Much larger than international evidence  Possible selection bias in unobserved characteristics (e.g. motivation, ethnicity)  No data on unregistered employment  Includes deadweight loss and substitution effects www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

13. Impact of short w.subsidy fades out www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

14. SROP1.1.1. w/wout wage subsidy men controltreattreat, no wage subsidy N%N%N% reemployed 1. 112%27553%13426% reemployed 2. 61%15230%10120% reemployed 3. 133%35669%21442% women controltreattreat, no wage subsidy N%N%N% reemployed 1. 172%53155%24025% reemployed 2. 111%28029%18319% reemployed 3. 253%69471%40241%

15. men controltreattreat, no wage subsidy N%N%N% reemployed 1. 62%14446%6822% reemployed 2. 21%8828%6019% reemployed 3. 83%19663%12038% women controltreattreat, no wage subsidy N%N%N% reemployed 1. 71%21746%9921% reemployed 2. 61%11825%8117% reemployed 3. 102%29662%17837% SROP1.1.1. for long term unemp

16. Lessons  limited resources for programmes for the uneducated  reemployment rates are high and increase in time  participants are better educated (except srop211)  srop 111 and 113: large positive impact  training and mentoring improves reemployment even without wage subsidy  impact of short term wage subsidy fades out fast  srop 111: significant impact for long term unemployed  mentoring has stronger impact on women  NLO register suitable for monitoring www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

17. Recommendations  increase funding for training and mentoring for uneducated jobseekers  adjust programme design based on impacts  improve targeting: target group, sub-indicators, profiling  unify indicators across programmes  add indicators on long term (1-2 years) impact  accompany new programmes with detailed longitudinal survey of participants and control www.ujszechenyiterv.gov.hu | Budapest, 30 April 2013

18. Thank you for your attention