1. Air Quality and Climate Connections Green and Environmental Systems Regional and Urban Air Quality: Now and in the Future New York Academy of Sciences, NY February 28, 2007 Arlene M. Fiore (arlene.fiore@noaa.gov) Acknowledgments: Larry Horowitz, Chip Levy, Dan Schwarzkopf (GFDL) Vaishali Naik, Jason West (Princeton U), Allison Steiner (U Michigan) Carlos Ordóñez (Laboratoire d'Aérologie), Martin Schulz (Jülich)

2. The U.S. smog problem is spatially widespread, affecting >100 million people [U.S. EPA, 2004] Annual Average PM 2.5 in 2003 U.S. EPA, 2004 Exceeds standard AEROSOLS (particulate matter) U.S. EPA, 2006 OZONE Nonattainment Areas (2001-2003 data) 4 th highest daily max 8-hr O 3 > 84 ppbv

3. Air pollutants affect climate by absorbing or scattering radiation NMVOCs CO CH 4 NO x pollutant sources + O3 O3 + OH H2OH2O Black carbon (soot) sulfates T T Aerosols interact with sunlight “direct” + “indirect” effects composition matters! Surface of the Earth Greenhouse gases absorb infrared radiation T more cloud droplets Smaller droplet size  clouds last longer  less precipitation atmospheric cleanser

4. Radiative forcing of climate (1750 to present): Important contributions from air pollutants IPCC, 2007

5. 50% anth. NO x 50% anth. CH 4 50% anth. VOC 1995 (base) 50% anth. VOC 50% anth. CH 4 50% anth. NO x AIR QUALITY: Number of U.S. summer grid-square days with O 3 > 80 ppbv CLIMATE: Radiative Forcing (W m -2 ) Fiore et al., GRL, 2002 Double dividend of Methane Controls: Decreased greenhouse warming and improved air quality Ozone precursors NO x  OH  CH 4 Results from GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model (4°x5°)

6. CLEABC 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 OZONE METHANE +0.16 Net Forcing (W m -2 ) +0.08 0.00 -0.08 Reducing tropospheric ozone via methane controls decreases radiative forcing (2030-2005) Anthropogenic CH 4 Emissions (Tg yr -1 ) Control scenarios reduce 2030 emissions relative to CLE by: A) -75 Tg (18%) – cost-effective now B) -125 Tg (29%) – possible with current technologies C) -180 Tg (42%) – requires new technologies West and Fiore, 2005; Fiore et al., in prep Radiative Forcing of Climate A B C CLE Baseline

7. How might future changes in aerosols affect climate? HISTORICAL and FUTURE SCENARIOS CO 2 concentrations ppmv Emissions of Short-lived Gases and Aerosols (A1B) 1880 1920 1960 2000 2040 2080 NO x (Tg N yr -1 ) SO 2 (Tg SO 2 yr -1 ) BC (Tg C yr -1 ) 25 20 15 10 5 0 250 200 150 100 50 60 50 40 30 20 10 Horowitz, JGR, 2006 Large uncertainty in future emission trajectories for short-lived species Pollution controls A1B IPCC, 2001

8. Up to 40% of U.S. warming in summer (2090s-2000s) from short-lived species From changing well-mixed greenhouse gases +short-lived species From changing only short-lived species Warming from increases in BC + decreases in sulfate; depends critically on highly uncertain future emission trajectories Results from GFDL Climate Model [Levy et al., 2006] Change in Summer Temperature 2090s-2000s (°C)

9. Changes in global anthropogenic emissions affect regional air quality 2030 A1 1995 Base case IPCC 2030 Scenario Anthrop. NO x emis. Global U.S. Methane emis. A1+80%-20%+30% GEOS-Chem Model (4°x5°) [Fiore et al., GRL, 2002] Rising global emissions may offset U.S. efforts to reduce pollution longer O 3 season How will changes in climate influence regional air quality?

10. Probability of daily max 8-h O 3 > 84 ppbv vs. daily max. temperature Observed surface ozone over the U.S. correlates strongly with temperature Lin et al., 2001 1980-1998 summertime observations Probability 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 62 71 80 89 98 (°F) Temperature New England Southeast Los Angeles

11. How does climate affect air quality? pollutant sources strong mixing (1) Meteorology (stagnation vs. well-ventilated boundary layer) Degree of mixing Boundary layer depth (2) Emissions (biogenic depend strongly on temperature; fires) T VOCs T (3) Chemistry responds to changes in temperature, humidity NMVOCs CO, CH 4 NO x + O3 O3 + OH H2OH2O generally faster reaction rates Increase with T, drought?

12. Ozone CO Ventilation (low-pressure system) HEATWAVE GRG Carlos Ordóñez ordc@aero.obs-mip.fr Laboratoire d'Aérologie Toulouse, France CO and O 3 from airborne observations (MOZAIC) Above Frankfurt (850 hPa; ~160 vertical profiles Contribution to GEMS, Integrated Project of the 6th EC Framework Programme GEMS-GRG subproject coordinated by Martin Schultz (m.schultz@fz-juelich.de) Pollution build-up during 2003 European heatwave Stagnant high pressure system over Europe (500 hPa geopotential anomaly relative to 1979-1995 for 2-14 August, NCEP) H

13. Observations during 2003 European heatwave show enhanced biogenic VOC concentrations Hogrefe et al., EM, 2005 Measurements from August 2003 Tropospheric Organic Chemistry Experiment (TORCH) in Essex, UK, during hottest conditions ever observed in the UK c/o Dr. Alistair Lewis, University of York, UK concentration (pptv) temperature (°C) BVOCs = 95 °F = 86 °F = 77 °F

14. Impacts on surface O 3 from T-driven increases in reaction rates, humidity, and BVOC emissions due to changes in climate Climate-driven O 3 increases may counteract air quality improvements achieved via local anthropogenic emission reductions 3 p.m. O 3 change (ppbv) in 3-day O 3 episode with CMAQ model (4x4 km 2 ), applying T change from 2xCO 2 climate (changes in meteorology not considered) [Steiner et al., JGR, 2006] ppbv normalized to a +1°C 543210543210 reaction humidity BVOC combined rates O 3 response depends on local chemistry (available NO x )

15. Changing climate may increase pollution events over the eastern U.S. Daily max 8-hr O 3 (5-year summer mean) ppbv Tracer of anthropogenic pollution (July-August) Simulations using present-day emissions with future climates Regional CMAQ model (36 km 2 ) with GISS boundary conditions Hogrefe et al., JGR 2004; EM 2005 in GISS global model (4°x5°) [Mickley et al., GRL, 2004] Relative Frequency (%) 2045-2052 A1B 1995-2002 Increase in frequency and duration of pollution events due to decrease in frequency of mid-latitude storms Eastern U.S.

16. Surface O 3 change under future climate varies: increases in polluted regions; decreases in “background” Mean annual change in number of days where daily max 8-hr O 3 > 80 ppbv (2090-2100 A1) – (1990-2000) MOZART-2 global tropospheric chemistry model with meteorology from NCAR climate model [Murazaki and Hess, J. Geophys. Res., 2006] More inflow of clean air from Gulf of Mexico Less trans-Pacific transport Increase in polluted (high-NO x ) regions

17. Air Quality and Climate Connections: Research Focal Points  Costs and benefits of “win-win” (e.g. BC, CH 4 ) and “win-lose” (e.g. sulfate) strategies for joint mitigation of air pollution and climate forcing  Aerosol feedbacks on climate, globally and regionally  Response of biogenic emissions and fires to changes in climate and land-use  Evolution of air quality with global change (climate + anthropogenic and “natural” emissions)