1. Nuclear Renaissance- Real, or Imaginary ?

2. Framework: I. A Bit of History II. Change Happens III. On the Threshold– Maybe IV. Where Things Stand Now

3. History Pearl Street, Lower Manhattan, 9/3/1882

4. Shippingport, 1957

5. Dresden Unit 1

6. Generation II Delays 1)Intervenors: LaSalle County 1 & 2: Approx. 3 years 2)Design Changes: LaSalle County 1 & 2: Approx. 18 mos. (Pressure suppression chamber reanchoring) LaSalle County original dates: 1974, 1975 LaSalle County actual dates: January & October 1984 3)Quality Problems: Marble Hill, IN, and Cincinnati G. & E. plant cancelled

7. Load Patterns

10. One last thing... US coal-fired plants are OLD ! For 14 coal-fired units in this territory (about 5000 mw), a rough weighted- average age is 47 years ! Mechanical condition alone may make these candidates for retirement– what would a carbon tax do ?

11. CHANGES IN THE WIND... –1992: Disaggregation of the industry –Environmental refocussing: 1969: SO 2 1980’s: Ozone, oxidants 1990: Mercury 1995– Greenhouse gases, CO 2

13. ON THE THRESHOLD Nuclear as baseload

14. DAILY INTEGRATED ELECTRIC LOAD

15. ON THE THRESHOLD Nuclear as baseload Unable to follow load Economics: High first cost Low operating cost

17. NEW PLANT DESIGNS 1)Emphasis on passive safety (Engineered safeguards are not first- line defense) 2) Precertified designs (Except for site-related differences)

18. WESTINGHOUSE AP-1000 REACTOR

20. BUT...

21. Financing is MUCH more difficult! --Disaggregation of industry makes utility financing like manufacturing

22. POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS 1)Consortia 2)Government loan guarantees

23. WHERE WE STAND NOW: -More than 30 announced projects (some construction started) -17 requests for COL (26 units) (but nothing issues until 2011) -Mostly consortia -Mostly existing sites (reduced likelihood of interventions) -Gov’t loan guarantees piddly

24. SPENT FUEL DISPOSAL ISSUES:

26. New Reactors Filed for C.O.L.