1. UNCLASSIFIED Initial Study of HPAC Modeled Dispersion Driven by MM5 With and Without Urban Canopy Parameterizations Dr. Chris Kiley – NGC Dr. Jason Ching - ARL, NOAA, RTP CDR Stephanie Hamilton - DTRA

2. UNCLASSIFIED 2

3. 3 Outline of Presentation Overview of HPAC Objective of Study Preliminary Results Next Steps

4. UNCLASSIFIED 4 DTRA Defense Threat Reduction Agency Mission is to safeguard the USA (and its allies) from weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high yield explosives) by providing capabilities to reduce, eliminate, or counter such threats and mitigate its effects. DTRA’s Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Automated software system provides the means to accurately predict the effects of hazardous material releases into the atmosphere and its impact on civilian and military populations. The system models hazard areas produced by military or terrorist incidents and industrial accidents using: integrated source terms high-resolution weather forecasts particulate transport analyses

5. UNCLASSIFIED 5 Weather and Environment Data Input Process for HPAC Land Cover (Landscan) Land Cover (Landscan) Interpolation to Uniform Grid Interpolation to Uniform Grid Terrain Data (Landscan) Terrain Data (Landscan) Weather Data (Many sources) Weather Data (Many sources) Transport & Dispersion Transport & Dispersion Source Data Source Data Concentration in space and time Concentration in space and time Calculate Mass- Consistent Wind Field Calculate Mass- Consistent Wind Field

6. UNCLASSIFIED 6 Meteorological Input Considerations Primary influence on Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (ATD) Compatible spatial resolution for the venue of the hazardous release Operational: Rapid calculations Is it Urban? This is the “Problem” we are to address.

7. UNCLASSIFIED 7 Model Resolution Coarser resolution (5 km) reveals little detail in the wind field Higher resolution (1.67 km) reveals additional wind field structure

8. UNCLASSIFIED 8 Urban AT&D Urban environment greatly affects local meteorology Wind velocity and direction Turbulence profiles Thermal characteristics NWP models not well suited to simulate urban areas Grid resolutions, detailed building information, parameterization, operational timeliness of forecasts, etc.

9. UNCLASSIFIED 9 Urban AT&D Urban meteorology and AT&D is a current area of focused R&D Not well understood yet highest probability of terrorist attack NWP does not currently handle urban areas well AT&D systems include simplified assumptions that describe the influence of urban environment Mass consistent adjustments to underlying building topography CFD solutions as computational capabilities advance Coupled CFD/NWP models Urban dispersion models

10. UNCLASSIFIED 10 UDM and other approaches Urban Dispersion Model (UDM) Dstl (UK) Operationally Fast Current Urban Capability within HPAC

11. UNCLASSIFIED 11 Urban Dispersion Model (UDM)

12. UNCLASSIFIED 12 Yellow arrows show wind speed and direction At 50 m above the ground, the flow is from the north or north- northeast at a steady speed UWM Winds @ 50m Height

13. UNCLASSIFIED 13 At 7 m above the ground, the flow is channeled around Capitol Hill and down the Mall, with strong winds Weaker winds in built-up parts of the city UWM Winds @ 7m Height

14. UNCLASSIFIED 14 HPAC now driven by modeled meteorology (MM5): Sensitivity study to grid size and to urbanization with Reynolds Averaging vs detailed Urban Canopy Parameterization versions. Preliminary results for Houston include: 4 km MM5 4 km MM5 with UDM 1 km MM5 1 km MM5 with UDM 1 km MM5 Urban Canopy Model Date: August 29, 2000 Time of Release:0700 EDT Duration of release:4 hours Study Description

15. UNCLASSIFIED 15 Houston Case Study 12 UTC (7 AM) 29 August 2000 GB Release, location arbitrarily chosen

16. UNCLASSIFIED 16 4 km

17. UNCLASSIFIED 17 4 km with UDM

18. UNCLASSIFIED 18 1 km

19. UNCLASSIFIED 19 1 km with UDM

20. UNCLASSIFIED 20 1 km Urbanized MM5

21. UNCLASSIFIED 21 Status of Study, Preliminary Findings & Caveats Successfully linked urbanized MM5 with HPAC. Only limited results performed at this time UDM appears to slow spread as expected Relative reduction in agent spread due to enhanced grid resolution not evident for early morning release Urbanized MM5 comparative reduction in spread also not pronounced at 0700 Results pending for different time of day release times

22. UNCLASSIFIED 22 Future investigations continues to: Examine and understand sensitivity to different times of release, different release locations and different duration of puff travel in order to appreciate differences in flow and turbulence fields due to grid size and urban descriptions. Understand mesoscale modeling abilities to simulate effect of urbanization on land-lake/sea breeze, boundary layer and heat island structures on HPAC simulations. Develop operational (fast) and R&D versions.

23. UNCLASSIFIED 23 The End Thank you for your attention Disclaimer: The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. This work constitutes a contribution to the NOAA Air Quality Program. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.