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October 10, 2002 1 KEY FACTS ABOUT RAYMOND JAMES LTD. -Formerly known as Goepel McDermid Inc., became Raymond James Ltd. in January 2001. -Parent company, NYSE-listed Raymond James Financial, Inc (RJF) ranks as the ninth largest full-service brokerage firm in the U.S., with over C$2.6 billion in revenues. -Raymond James Financial maintains an established network of 4,800 investment professionals in approximately 2,000 offices worldwide with $120 billion (Cdn) in private client assets under administration. -Raymond James research has been ranked #1 in the Wall Street Journal’s quarterly performance rankings more than any other firm over the last ten years. The research team includes 46 analysts in the U.S. covering 475 companies, and 17 analysts in Canada, covering 130 companies. -The Raymond James forest products corporate finance team is a well recognized financial advisor to the forest industry in Canada, with a track record for innovative transactions.
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October 10, 2002 2 Paper & Forest Industry Update: “The Ugly, the Good, the Bad …” Mark Bishop Equity Research Analyst Paper & Forest Products Raymond James Ltd.
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October 10, 2002 3 Industry Overview Commodity Review B.C. Industry
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October 10, 2002 4 Too much capacity Easy access to capital More global fibre looking for a home “The Ugly”
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October 10, 2002 5 Performance during the late 1990’s was not impressive.
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October 10, 2002 6 Declining “need” to invest in the sector
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October 10, 2002 7 “The Good” Capacity closures Capital spending restraint Market discipline
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October 10, 2002 8 Capacity closures …. but how permanent?
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October 10, 2002 9 Capital spending restraint
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October 10, 2002 10 Capital spending restraint Lowest growth rate ever recorded
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October 10, 2002 11 Market discipline…
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October 10, 2002 12 … historic low inventories
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October 10, 2002 13 Recent weaker U.S. currency has helped NA industry
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October 10, 2002 14 Recent relative performance more encouraging
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October 10, 2002 15 Consolidation continues …
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October 10, 2002 16 … and may lead to more stable pricing.
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October 10, 2002 17 Bigger isn’t necessarily better …
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October 10, 2002 18 … but customers are also consolidating.
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October 10, 2002 19 Consolidation will continue Drivers : Customer consolidation Globalization Buy vs. build Benefits: Inventory management Best practices Product rationalization Pricing stabilization
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October 10, 2002 20 “The Bad” tech meltdown, global geopolitical concerns & corporate misconduct has significantly reduced confidence in capital markets print advertising recovery is not materializing resolution of the US/Cdn lumber trade dispute remote supply discipline may be faltering
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October 10, 2002 21 Commodity Review Typical economic recovery, inventory and supply conditions aside, drives demand in paper and forest products commodities through the following sequence: 1.Building materials – Lumber & panels interest rate sensitive, consumer led 2.Packaging - Containerboard with initial pickup in industrial economy & manufacturing activity 3.Communication papers - Uncoated freesheet (UFS) increasing demand for business papers first e.g., UFS increasing demand for magazine & advertising follows e.g., coated paper resulting increase in pulp demand 4.Publishing papers - Newsprint largely driven by retail kicks in with increasing consumer confidence as a result of improved industrial activity – i.e., job growth
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October 10, 2002 22 Commodity Review
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October 10, 2002 23 Lumber
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October 10, 2002 24 Lumber
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October 10, 2002 25 Lumber 27% cash duties in place since May 22 Canadian industry responds with higher operating rates to reduce unit costs Preliminary WTO “win” for Canada in July Next key ruling in Feb. 2003 – NAFTA Curtailments now on the increase
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October 10, 2002 26 Lumber
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October 10, 2002 27 Lumber
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October 10, 2002 28 Market pulp
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October 10, 2002 29 Market pulp
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October 10, 2002 30 Newsprint
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October 10, 2002 31 Newsprint
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October 10, 2002 32 Newsprint
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October 10, 2002 33 Summary - Valuation
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October 10, 2002 34 Summary - Valuation
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October 10, 2002 35 Canadian P&FP Share Price Performance
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October 10, 2002 36 Canadian P&FP Share Price Performance
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October 10, 2002 37 B.C. Industry EPS Forecast
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October 10, 2002 38
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October 10, 2002 39 B.C. Industry government committed to forest policy change policy change remains tied to trade file expect policy change will occur on B.C. coast at accelerated pace – Fall 2002 labour environment appears to be improving consolidation likely as visibility on U.S. market access improves
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