1. Three of a Kind? Emissions Trading Systems in the EU, NZ, and Tokyo Dr. Stefan Niederhafner Seoul National University Department of Political Science & International Relations Email: niederhafner@snu.ac.kr

2. Conceptual Background

3. Modes of Governance Hierarchy: command-and-control, regulations Market: supply and demand, prices Networks: interdependency and commitment, trust

4. Policy Targets GHG mitigation investment in low-carbon technology

5. Principles of Cap-and-Trade skipped

6. Volume of one metric Tonne CO2 http://desi gn2good.w ordpress.c om/2011/0 5/02/visual izing-one- ton-of-co2- no-1/http://desi gn2good.w ordpress.c om/2011/0 5/02/visual izing-one- ton-of-co2- no-1/, 15 October 2013

7. Comparing the Systems

8. Hierarchy elements EU Annual compliance Penalties Dysfunctional cap NZ Annual compliance No penalties no cap To ky o 5 years compliance Penalties Cap Specific reduction targets Network elements - - Advisory system Certification system Market elements Unlimited trade between participants Limited acceptance of Kyoto units Unlimited trade between participants Unlimited trade of Kyoto units Limited trade between the participants No Kyoto units

9. Tokyo ETS - Network Elements Close relations between the administration and the operators Best practice database At the spot advising systems Benchmarking and public rankings Top-runner certifications

10. Comparing System Performance

11. Price Development

12. EUA spot prices Nov 2012 - March 2014 http://www.eex.com/de/marktdaten/emissionsrechte/spotmarkt/european-emission-allowances#!/2014/03/17http://www.eex.com/de/marktdaten/emissionsrechte/spotmarkt/european-emission-allowances#!/2014/03/17, 17 March 2014

13. NZU spot prices Jan 2010 - March 2014 https://www.commtrade.co.nz/https://www.commtrade.co.nz/, 17 March 2014

14. CER spot price Jan 2013 - Mar 2014 http://www.eex.com/de/marktdaten/emissionsrechte/spotmarkt/gree n-certified-emission-reductions#!/2014/03/17, 17 March 2014

15. Total potential supply of CERs 2012-2020 http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/Public/CDMinsights/index.html#, 18 Mach 2014, 20 March 2014

16. Tokyo ETS – Trade Performance Number of Trades: 2010: 4 2011: 6 2012: (first half) 7 Total, reported in 2014: 25 Price as of Sept. 2013: 10,000 Yen, 74 Euro, 101 US dollar

17. GHG Emissions Development

18. EU-15 GHG reductions http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/docs/com_2013_698_en.pdfhttp://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/g-gas/docs/com_2013_698_en.pdf, 17 March 2014

19. https://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions/net-position/#table2https://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions/net-position/#table2, 17 Feb 2014 NZ allowances vs emissions 2008-2012

20. Tokyo ETS Reduction Performance Source: http://www.metro.tokyo.jp/ENGLISH/TOPICS/2013/ftn1l100.htm, 17 March 2014

21. Conclusion concerning market based governance instruments Functionality of market mode governance difficult to achieve Carbon markets need very complex regulatory framing ETS are not simpler, easier or more effective than alternatives (taxes) They make sense as components in target- oriented environmental protection policy

22. Conclusion concerning the NZ ETS The system can be made functional: Introduction of a cap Disconnection from the global market Option: Introduction of advisory and certification systems

23. Thank you Stefan Niederhafner Seoul National University Dep. of PoliSci & IR Please email any comments to: niederhafner@snu.ac.kr