1. Understanding and Mitigating Radiation Belt Hazards for Space Exploration Geoffrey Reeves Space Science and Applications, ISR-1, Los Alamos National Laboratory,

2. Why is radiation belt physics relevant to the Vision for Space Exploration? The radiation belts aren’t going to kill astronauts But, radiation belt doses to Apollo astronauts were ‘non-negligable’ and can be reduced with more knowledge - the goal is ALARA and this is achievable Radiation belt physics is critical for the space-based infrastructure that will support any significant exploration program - communications, staging, etc. As with other elements of LWS the radiation belt programs were designed to have direct, practical benefit to life and society - within and beyond VSE The goals are achievable and timely

3. There are three classes of problems we want to solve Climatology +What are the long-term conditions and variability? +Primarily for spacecraft and systems design/optimization Now-Casting +Primarily for rapid (and cost effective) anomaly assessment +Typically requires near real time data (which is scarce) +Can be significantly enhanced with minor investments such as ground stations to collect NRT data from operational assets Prediction +Requires physical understanding, data, and models +Global knowledge - e.g. plasmapause location, global field… +Detailed physics such as the chain of causality from plasma distributions to wave growth to electron acceleration and loss

5. Paulikas and Blake 1979 Correlation between Vsw and Electron Flux 6-Month Averages27-Day Averages

7. Standard Models like AE8/AP8 are Outdated and Wrong J. B. Blake SEEWG 2004

8. Extreme events, while rare, dramatically change statistics and climatological models J. B. Blake SEEWG 2004

9. New models like POLE can provide significant benefits for minimal cost D. G. Boscher et al. 2003, Trans IEEE Nuc. Sci., Under-shielding increases risk of component, system, or mission failure Over-shielding increases costs and/or reduces capability by flying old or less capable technologies

10. A Fundamental Predication Challenge: Will a storm increase or decrease the belts? 100X Increase10X DecreaseNo Change Geomagnetic storms change the radiation belts dramatically but unpredictably Radiation belt fluxes vary as a function of time, altitude (L), and energy The challenge is to reliably extrapolate in time, space, and/or energy CRRES - full mission

11. Acceleration and Losses - Low energies coupled to High through waves The same wave fields can produce pitch angle scattering and loss Unstable plasma distributions produce waves that couple energy into the relativistic population

12. Predictive understanding requires coupling observations with the right physical models Dynamic Radiation Environment Assimilation Model

13. Data Assimilation - Utilizing observations and models for prediction and understanding A Pictorial Representation of the Kalman Filter

15. 1D Radial Diffusion: Identical Twin Test Diffusion function: Exact solution compared to Data Assimilation Solution Just 2 satellites (measuring with errors) can determine radial diffusion rates - and precision of result Data Assimilation Model Solution Exact Solution Error Matrix

16. Adaptive Extended Kalman Filter CRRES Data + Radial Diffusion + Loss Lifetimes Shprits et al., 2005

17. Initiate model with t = 20/Kp Converges to t = 5/Kp (independent of Kp!)

18. Physical equations must be solved in dynamic magnetic coordinates (µ, J, L*)

19. Changing the field changes phase space density and the satellites’ magnetic locations

20. Self-Consistent Magnetic & Ring Current Model Euler Potential based Equilibrium Magnetic Field model calculated from UNH-RAM ring current pressure distributions Feed back new B equilibrium into RAM and solve iteratively Self consistent results produce different current strength, drift paths, anisotropies, wave growth rates, etc…

21. Self-Consistent Magnetic & Ring Current Model Euler Potential based Equilibrium Magnetic Field model based on RAM pressure distributions Feed back new B equilibrium into RAM and solve iteratively Changes: current strength, drift path, anisotropies, wave growth rates…

22. LWS Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) Understanding and Application LWS missions were designed to achieve physical understanding that is critical to life and society VSE’s needs are closely coupled to the needs of our technological society and inquisitive nature Radiation Belt Storm Probes

23. RBSP fills a vital gap - 2 sat, equatorial, elliptical but does not have to do the job alone

24. We Have: A vast collection of archival data spanning several solar cycles (but of variable quality) A well-ordered system in which most of the basic physical equations are known (but not which processes dominate) Excellent physical models for parts of the system that have high fidelity when they have the right inputs A new satellite mission to fill critical gaps in physical understanding and in observations Clear, achievable goals in the 3, 5, and 10 year time scales

25. We Need: To develop new empirical, but dynamic, climatological models To understand which processes operate and when A second equatorial satellite orbit and low-altitude precipitation measurements to significantly extend the science return from RBSP (as identified by the GMDT) To develop global physical models that provide context for observations as well as predictive capability Integrate new & continuing observations with these new tools

26. Relevance to VSE The radiation belts are only one component of the VSE space environment problem but improvements in our ability to understand and predict dynamic radiation environments at Earth will directly benefit human and robotic exploration missions and the infrastructure needed to support them. Dramatic improvements are both achievable and timely Better radiation belt models can reduce risk, reduce costs, and enable new space capabilities and technologies The Acid Test We will have failed if we cannot predict which events will increase radiation belt fluxes, which events will decrease radiation belt fluxes, and how large those changes will be

27. Thank You