8. Water Forecast: What South-Central U.S. Natural Resource Managers Should Expect in the Coming Years Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist USDA Forest Service EFETAC Raleigh, NC Steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu August 7, 2012

9. Take Home Point # 1 Drought and Wet Periods are Cyclical

10. 400 Year Record Cook and Krusic NA Drought Atlas

11. Take Home Point # 2 The Cycle is becoming more extreme

12. Cook and Krusic NA Drought Atlas 200 Year Record

13. Take Home Point # 3 Some parts of the cycle are not expected to shift

14. Dallas Projected precipitation through 21 st Century

15. Take Home Point # 4 Some parts of the cycle are expected to shift

16. Dallas projected air through 21 st Century Shameless plug alert #1

17. USDA Forest Service – Threat Assessment Centers Steve McNulty (PI) Emrys Treasure Lisa Jennings Jennifer Moore Myers Robert Herring Nancy Grulke Lisa Balduman USDA Forest Service – Southern Region Chris Liggett (PI) David Meriwether Paul Arndt

18. So what does this mean for water management?

19. Changes in Forest Water Yield

20. Current annual water flow

21. Change in flow due to climate change by 2050

22. Change in flow due to increased use by 2050

23. Change in annual flow due to increased impervious surface by 2050 Shameless plug alert # 2

25. Rangeland and forest management strategy for adapting water stress Favor more drought, and fire tolerance species such long-leaf pine over more fire susceptible species such loblolly pine. Decrease stand stocking level to reduce drought and insect impacts Shorten rotation length to minimize the potential for disturbance caused forest volume loss As stress progresses shift to grassland management

26. Increases in soil erosion and Stream sedimentation due to increased energy/water holding capacity of the atmosphere leading to more intense rain events

27. Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events (more than 2 inches or 50.8mm) Karl et al. 1996 BW 7

28. Increased soil erosion risk and stream sedimentation Uwharrie National Forest

29. Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

30. Management Strategy for Coping with Increased Soil Erosion Continue to encourage standard soil erosion control practices such as buffer strips, broad based dips, piling slash down slope of skid trails and along stream channels Relocate trails away from streams Use bridge mats and culverts at stream crossings

31. Increased air temperature and little change in annual precipitation will result is less stream flow and surface water

32. Playa lakes in west Texas fill up after a heavy spring rain.

33. Increased soil erosion and reduced available water will likely cause a reduction in Playas

34. Increased soil erosion and decreased overall spring rains will likely lead to reduction in prairie potholes, and resting sites for water fowl - Monitor for new sources of sedimentation (from areas that historically have not been points of erosion). - Use traditional BMP’s and remediation practices to address these problem areas - Continue to work with other interest groups (e.g. Duck Unlimited) to conserve remaining habitat and examine Opportunities to new habitat creation with shifting climate patterns

35. Increased Hurricane Occurrence and Severity Naturally cyclical, and the southern US is headed into a natural increase in hurricane activity

36. Hurricanes per Year

37. Increased Hurricane Occurrence and Severity Naturally cyclical, and the southern US is headed into a natural increase in hurricane activity Ocean water temperatures are rising

38. Warming waters provide more energy for storms

40. Management Strategy for Coping with Increased Hurricane Activity and Intensity Plant or encourage regeneration of more wind resistant long-leaf pine over Loblolly pine Look to establish ready markets for salvaged wood (less than 10% is currently recovered) to reduce increase insect and fire outbreaks associated with increased debris volume Consider shortening the rotation length to minimize the potential for catastrophic loss due to hurricanes

41. Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise

42. Glacial Melting and thermal expansion of ocean water will cause sea levels to rise

45. Management Options to Slow Coastal Loss Encourage Mangrove and other coast vegetation that will buffer the shoreline from extreme wave events Maintain coastal marsh, and barrier island areas

46. Respected Republican leaders like Govs. John Kasich of Ohio and Chris Christie of New Jersey have spoken out about the reality of climate change. Rupert Murdoch's recent tweet—"Climate change very slow but real. So far all cures worse than disease."—may reflect an emerging conservative view. Even Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, during public comments in June, conceded the reality of climate change while offering assurances that "there will be an engineering solution" and "we'll adapt." Fred Krupp: A New Climate-Change Consensus It's time for conservatives to compete with liberals to devise the best, most cost-effective climate change solution WSJ August 6, 2012 Water Talk “Conclusion”