1. MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING OF INLAND PASSENGER RAILWAY TRANSPORTATION IN LATVIA Roman Gorky 1, Eugene Kopytov 1, Vasilijs Demidovs 1,2 1 Transport and Telecommunication Institute Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia 2 State Join-Stock Company “Latvian Railway” Information Technology Centre Turgeneva 21, Riga, LV-1050, Latvia E-mail: rgorky@gmail.com, kopitov@tsi.lv; dem@ldz.lv

2. RELSTAT'12 19.10.20122 Index 1 Introduction 1.1 Relevance of the theme 1.2 Current research 1.3 Actual research sources 1.4 Object structure and statistics 2 Research 2.1 The purpose of the research 2.2 Research objects and objectives 3 Regression model 3.1 Data source and tools 3.2 Regression model and data analysis 4 Conclusion

3. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201233 Relevance of the theme In the present economic conditions the main volume of passenger rail transportation in Latvia is performed in local lines. To plan passenger rail transportation it is necessary to perform detailed analysis and forecasting of passenger flows in separate sectors, lines and regions of the railway on the whole territory of Latvia. 1.1

4. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201244 The main directions of current research in the field of passenger transport Decision support system (DSS) Issues related to the ecology Improving the safety of passengers Solve local government problems Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) 1.2

5. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201255 Actual research sources* ERA-NET Transport (ENT) – is a sustainable network of national transport research programs in Europe (www.transport-era.net)www.transport-era.net International Conference Series on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport - www.thredbo-conference-series.org www.thredbo-conference-series.org Transport Research Knowledge Centre - www.transport-research.info www.transport-research.info Mendeley- one of the world’s largest crowd-sourced research (www.mendeley.com)www.mendeley.com Sydney eScholarship Repository - ses.library.usyd.edu.au ses.library.usyd.edu.au 1.3 * Full list on website: bialive.org (“Links” category)

6. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201266 Passenger transportation modes in Latvia 1.4

7. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201277 PASSENGER TURNOVER (mln passenger-kilometres) Latvia has been a member of the European Union and NATO since 2004 Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991 Latvia joined the Schengen zone in 2007 The financial crisis of 2007–2008 Latvia is a member of the Baltic Free Trade Area (1994–2004)Baltic Free Trade Area Latvia has been a member of WTO since 1999 1.4

8. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201288 PASSENGER TRAFFIC (mln passengers) Latvia has been a member of the European Union and NATO since 2004 Dissolution of the Soviet Union 1991 Latvia joined the Schengen zone in 2007 The financial crisis of 2007–2008 Latvia is a member of the Baltic Free Trade Area (1994–2004)Baltic Free Trade Area Latvia has been a member of WTO since 1999 1.4

9. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201299 Organization of the regional passenger transportation in Latvia VIPUSVBTS 1.4

10. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201210 The purpose of the research Analysing and forecasting of passenger flows on the railway in Latvian regions using the regression analysis method. 2.1

11. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201211 The administrative division of Latvia 2.22.2

12. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201212 Regional scheme of Latvian Railway 2.2

13. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201213 Multiple regression model of passenger transportations in the regions and cities of Latvia in 2003 2.2

14. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201214 Research objectives The objective is to investigate the model after the crisis approach in year 2007 and 2008 during the period of recession in Latvia. 2.2

15. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201215 Data source Nodarbinātības valsts aģentūras - http://www.nva.lv/ http://www.nva.lv/ Lursoft - http://www.lursoft.lv/http://www.lursoft.lv/ Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia - http://www.csb.gov.lv/ http://www.csb.gov.lv/ Pasažieru vilcienu biļešu pārdošanas sistēma - VIPUS 3.13.1 * Full list on website: bialive.org (“Statistics” category)

16. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201216 Tools Oracle MySQL Data Base MS Excel (PivotTable for cube building) StatSoft Statistica 3.13.1 Data Analysis Model Model calibration & validation

17. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201217 Railway Passenger Turnover 3.23.2

18. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201218 Railway Passenger Dynamic 3.23.2

19. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201219 The results of smoothening the data on passenger transportations in the regions and cities of Latvia from 2009-2011 3.23.2 Regional regression model City regression model

20. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201220 The spread of the calculated data from the actual values in % 3.23.2

21. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201221 Regression model RegionCityAllOldDescription -8986330-6173380331453081316 B ---1054316579X 1 - population density in region 9699079-78535-608246X 2 - the number of enterprises per a unit of territory in region -115735-13931-504739142X 3 - the number of enterprises per 1000 residents in region 1268586---73812X 4 - density of the unemployed population in region 218495874---25477000X 5 - the number of schools per a unit of territory region -156813160-1552254-4100826565904X 6 - the number of buses per a unit of territory in region 22273339-2269575--X 7 - the number of car per 1000 residents in region -3412478340-X 8 - the number of car per a unit of territory in region -27073-4174-88572X 9 - the number of buses per 1000 residents in region -292253-24809X 10 - the number of railway stations in region 3.23.2

22. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201222 Regression model quality coefficients ModelMultiple RR²adjusted R² Standard error of estimate FNo of cases Region 0.82680.68360.60116777668.2330 All 0.97930.9590.9525948642148.164745 City 0.99980.99950.99911926382736.35415 3.23.2

23. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201223 Conclusion (1) According to regression models the conclusion has been done that these models can't be used in long-term perspective. The consequences are: 1.Changes of dynamics after crisis (pre-crisis models don't work any more) 2.Statistical data in Latvia is characterized by incompleteness and low reliability of basic data 3.Diverse systems are used for collecting and storage transport data in IS (data transformation and calibration is necessary) 4.Indistinct policy of the company and stochastic behavior of the passengers given on a turn 4

24. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201224 Conclusion (2) For improvement the quality of the developed regression models, the following is offered: 1.Inclusions of new variables in a model 2.Increase in volume of data by reduction of a time interval (quarter, month) 3.Increase of data reliability 4.Bigger accumulation of data after crisis time (for example, 5 years) 5.A certain policy of the company in long-term prospect on routes 4

25. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201225 Next Step The further direction of these researches is: 1.Regression model’s construction for bus regional passenger traffic 2.Researches of alternative methods of the multidimensional statistical analysis application possibility 3.Creation of accumulation system and collecting statistical data on passenger traffic 4

26. RELSTAT'12 19.10.201226 Contacts Roman Gorky Transport and Telecommunication Institute Lomonosova Str. 1, Riga, LV-1019, Latvia E-mail: rgorky@gmail.comrgorky@gmail.com WEB: http://bialive.orghttp://bialive.org