1. RoTAP Chapter 7 European and Global Perspective 4-5 December 2008

2. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 1 Aspects of importance – based on RoTAP objectives  Identify the effects of control strategies over the period 1980 to 2005 (incl. evidence of non-linearities). European emissions concentrations and deposition  Demonstrate the capabilities of models to simulate the past and present situation.  Apply models to future conditions - different control scenarios, climate change  Critical assess outcome with respect to methodologies, risks and impacts to ecosystems and crops  UK vs Europe  Importance of sources outside Europe – shipping, intercontinental transport and hemispheric background

3. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 2 Overall outline of the Chapter  Introduction  Trends in emissions, conc. & dep. over Europe 1980 – 2007  What Have We Achieved?  Effects of Climate Change on TAP  The Growing Scale  The Future: Is Europe on its way towards a clean air continent ?

4. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 3 SO2 emissions in Europe 1990 - 2006

5. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 4 SO2. Relative reductions 1990-2006

6. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 5 NOx emissions in Europe 1990-2006

7. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 6 NOx emissions. Relative change 1990-2006

8. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 7 NH3 emissions in Europe

9. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 8 NH3 emissions

10. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 9 Sulphur emissions 1980-2000 European CountriesSO 2 CE = Czech Rep., Hungary, Poland and Slovak Rep. -73% CW = Austria, Switzerland and Germany -89% E = Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Russia (European part)* -73% N = Denmark Finland Iceland, Norway and Sweden -87% NW = Belgium, Luxemburg, the Netherlands, Ireland and United Kingdom -76% S = France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain -62% SE = Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Republic of Moldova, Romania, Slovenia, The FYROM Macedonia, Turkey, Ukraine and Yugoslavia -40% TOTAL EUROPE (excluding ships ) -67% Successful decrease of pollutant emissions, generally larger after 1990 when different Protocols came into force

11. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 10 The observed levels of SO2 and SO4 in air have decreased accordingly Averaged air concentrations over all European stations in the EMEP network

12. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 11 Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology 2000 2020 2020 Current legislation MTFR

13. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 12 What have we achieved?

14. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 13 The experiments show N addition  slow response NITREX Gårdsjön, Sweden Climate warming  increased NO3 CLIMEX Risdalsheia, Norway Moldan unpub.Van Breemen et al. 1998 Ecosystems

15. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 14 Acidification – signs of recovery  Sulphate is going down in soil waters, surface waters etc. all over Europe. (WGE report 2004, Surface waters NIVA report 2008)  Inorg. Al is decreasing. ANC is increasing.  Biological responses: Lakes and streams have been studied to some extent (UK, Nordic countries, some countries on the continent, CZ, US)  There is a need for more follow-up studies

16. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 15 Issue 4: Compliance with national emission ceilings in 2010 Emissions resulting from the national projections compared to NECs SO 2 NO x VOCNH 3 FRNL DK IRMT SP AT BEDK LU SPSWFR IR BEDK MT

17. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 16 Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections 1.Emissions will further decline –Present legislation and structural change will significantly reduce air pollution in the future –Expected changes between 2000 and 2020 (EU-25): –SO 2: -65% –NO x :-50% –VOC:-45% –PM2.5:-45% –NH 3 : -4%

18. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 17 Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections 1.Emissions will further decline 2.But: Air quality remains threat to human health –Approximately 5 months loss in life expectancy due to PM, –Several 1000s premature deaths due to ozone

19. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 18 Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections 1.Emissions will further decline 2.But: Air quality remains threat to human health 3.Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached –European forests –will continue be exposed to ozone up to six times above sustainable levels –150.000 km 2 (13%) will receive unsustainable acid deposition –Many Natura2000 areas remain unprotected from acidification –13% of Swedish lakes will face excess of critical loads –55% of European ecosystems will receive to high nitrogen deposition, endangering bio-diversity

20. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 19 Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections 1.Emissions will further decline 2.But: Air quality remains threat to human health 3.Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached 4.Relevance of sources will change –Traditional “large polluters” will reduce their contributions –Other sources will take over: –SO 2 : Ships, industrial processes, small sources –NO x : Ships, diesel heavy duty vehicles, off-road –VOC: Solvents –NH 3 : Agriculture –PM: Wood burning, industrial processes

21. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 20 Conclusions from the CAFE baseline projections More need to be done!!!!

22. P Grennfelt RoTAP 2008 21 SO 2 cost curves for ships and land-based sources 2020