1. 1 UK Climate Projections 2009 Regional Data – North East

2. UK Climate projections 09 help us understand possible impacts in the UK and the need to reduce our emissions  These projections of our future climate have been developed by Met Office paid for by Defra (also on behalf of Scotland, Wales and NI)  They show us the reality of climate change and help us understand both the importance of the need to reduce our emissions and adapt to inevitable changes.  A great deal of information is available including pre-prepared maps and graphs, which are available online to anyone  A report ‘Adapting to Climate change: UK Climate Projections’ setting out what the Government is doing on adaptation will be available, plus further reports on the science underpinning the projections by UKCIP 2

3. How to access the projections ? Further information can be found on the Defra website at: www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation For detailed access to the UKCP User Interface http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk 3

4. For summer average temperature, we see significant increases over the decades to the 2080 2080 +3.7ºC 2040 +2.2ºC 2020 +1.5ºC 4 NE England central estimate Medium emissions Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths Risk to Food Security The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC

5. For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases 5 Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress 2080 -17% 2040 -10% 2020 -5% For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher than +1% NE England central estimate Medium emissions

6. For rainfall we see significant winter increases 6 Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure 2080 +14% 2040 +9% 2020 +4% For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be higher than +32% NE England central estimate Medium Emissions

7. Relative sea level rise (medium emissions, 50 th percentile) 7 2080 Alnmouth: 30cm Saltburn: 34cm 2040 Alnmouth:14cm Saltburn: 16cm

8. What are the key impacts in the North East region? In the longer term the impacts of climate change in the North East could include: Heatwaves - affecting schools, homes and hospitals; Winter flooding, flash floods and storm damage; Increasing pests and diseases; Breakdowns of transport links due to extreme heat or storms. Families, communities and businesses could be affected, Emergency services are likely to come under increasing pressure 8

9. What actions are taking place in the North East to adapt to climate change? A wide range of organisations signed up to the North East Declaration on Climate Change in 2007. The Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional Economic Strategy contain a range of policies to tackle climate change and encourage renewable energy The North East Climate Change Partnership has produced an award winning “Climate Change Adaptation Study”, which has shown the kinds of change that are likely up to the 2050s for each part of the region, and suggests the actions needed to help us prepare to cope with these. Local authorities and others are developing plans to help individuals, businesses and communities to adapt to the new climate 9

10. Local Authority Action All the Local Authorities in the region have signed up to the North East Declaration on Climate Change. The region was also the first in Europe to have all its Local Authorities sign up in 2009 to the “European Covenant of Mayors”. These agreements commit local authorities to work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and help businesses and communities adapt to climate change. Six of the 12 local authorities have signed up to National Indicator 186 which aims to reduce gas emissions across the whole local authority area, one to NI 185 which tracks emissions from the local authority’s own activities, and eight to NI 188 which focuses on adaptation to climate change. 10

11. Project example: The North East Climate Change Schools Project The North East Climate Change Schools Project has been working with 80 lead schools in the region to teach pupils about climate change. The project is the first of its kind in the country. The project has just launched a Climate Adaptation Challenge. The 12 winning schools will receive up to £3000 each to help pupils take the message about climate change back to their homes and communities. A book written by young people in the region, with a forward by Bill Bryson, is just one of the successes of the project so far. 11

12. Project Example: Cheviot Futures Cheviot Futures is a new approach to land management in rural Northumberland. It aims to show how climate change is affecting the area and rural businesses, particularly farming, through an education and tourist package for two sites. Action so far has included work to reduce flood risk, and burning plans to control wildfire.