1. Tough Choices Remain for Florida Presentation to the TBRC November 1, 2007 LeRoy Collins Institute LeRoy Collins Institute ~ Carol Weissert, Director FSU Campus ~ 506 W Pensacola Street Tallahassee FL 32306-1601 850-644-1441 ~ 850-644-1442 fax

22. Percentage Retiring by Age, 50-75

23. Estimate of New Retirees per Year, 1950-2050

24. Social Social S Social Security Trustees Report, 2006, Figure IV B 2 Social Security Retired Beneficiaries per Covered Worker

25. Mean Family Wealth for Households by Age of Head

33. All Local Governments in Florida, except Duval

39. Taxable Value as a Proportion of Personal Income, Florida, 2006-20

40. Business Taxes as Share of GSP Estimated by Ernst and Young

41. Business Share of S&L Taxes Estimated by Ernst and Young

42. The New Florida Legislation In January 2007, the Florida legislature passed the “Insurance Industry Accountability and Consumer Protection Act” This act expands the scope of Citizens Property Insurance Corporation (Citizens) and the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (FHCF) The goal of this act is to lower residential property insurance rates in Florida

43. Storm Damage ~ 7 th Power of Wind Speed Force ~ Velocity Squared Area Duration Catastrophic Failure of Structures Nordhaus NBER Working Paper 2006 (He says 8 th power.)

44. Low-lying Areas at Risk of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges

46. Local Share of FEFP Up 8 Points

47. Challenges for K-12 Schools Class Size Amendment Backloading of Teacher Pay Automatic Raises for Advanced Degrees Higher Pay in Georgia Higher Pay in Alternative Occupations Limited Merit Pay Limited Extra Pay for Math, Science, Special Ed Unions Low-SES Students Large Schools, Large Districts

53. Source: Florida Department of Education Division of Colleges and Universities

54. Undergraduate Tuition and Fees FY 2006 Florida$2,648 Texas$4,400 North Carolina$3,551 Georgia$3,377 United States$5,027 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics 2006

55. Tuition, Constant 2007$, FL & US

57. Higher education status: Funding remains below average Tuition remains extremely low –Bright Futures and Florida Prepaid Absence of political will for excellence First separation of Bright Futures from tuition

58. SOURCE: Social Services Estimating Conference July 17 07, Sept. 26, 03.

59. SOURCE: A Snapshot of Florida Medicaid. Oct. 4 2006 Updated by Social Services Estimating Conference— Medicaid Services Expenditures Services Expenditures July 30 2007

60. Medicaid Status Recent drops in Medicaid spending are temporary Slowing economy increases demands on program

62. Florida KidCare Enrollment has stabilized but program is undersubscribed State loses federal dollars when enrollment drops

63. Bottom Line Two years later little change in overall diagnosis Florida’s future is compromised by low service levels and a narrow and inequitable tax base Demographic trends show richer, older state K-16 Education endangered Long-term thinking is key