1. ADVANCED KNOWLEDGE IS POWER Protect Life and Property Promote Economic Vitality Environmental Stewardship Promote Fundamental Understanding

2. Science in Service to Society Arguments for a major transition

3. The transition is a product of (a) significant improvements in capability and (b) demonstrated importance of the information for decision- makers

4. Elements in the transition: An expansion of the forecasting family As a result of specific needs Air quality, lightning, energy demand; uv, severe weather evacuations, agriculture, etc.

5. Elements in the transition: An expansion in the time scales of interest Instrumented and pre-instrumented records Weather forecasts Seasonal-to interannual outlooks Long-term climate change

6. The Future: Environmental “Intel” Center(s)

7. Addressing Societal Needs Integrated Observation Systems Data management and access High Resolution coupled models Human Dimensions

8. Some Steps in the Transition Promoting the transition from research to operations Adding “Service” to “Climate” Focus on Communication

9. Transition from Research to Operations

10. How Effective is our Transition Process? A strong research program A healthy infrastructure for transition A strong interface with the user community International observation and data access partnerships Continuous evaluation processes

11. Climate Services

12. Evidence for a Growing Demand Some examples: The Evolution of Hurricane Risk Application of ENSO Forecasts Weather Derivatives IPCC; National Assessments

13. Some Guiding Principles The Activities and Elements of a “Service” must be User-Centric Recognize evolving needs and capabilities Promote vigorous and comprehensive intersection between knowledge and its use Support through active research Evaluate and assess use and effectiveness continuously

14. Guiding Principles (continued) Scope of the knowledge base must be retrospective and predictive Continuous, reliable, accurate historical base Access to climate observations (includes paleo) Forecasts and outlooks, month to a year out Causes and character of natural variability Long-term climate simulations

15. Guiding Principles (continued) An adequate climate services knowledge base requires active stewardship Open and free exchange of data Ten basic principles of climate monitoring Multipurpose observations (in situ and satellite) Synergism observations and models Robust and easily accessible delivery system National modeling and analysis capability Dedicated computational capability

16. Guiding Principles (continued) Active and Defined Participation of Governments, Business, and Academia Government – public goods and services; protection of life and property Business – motivated by market forces/client interests Academia – education and research/ interface with government and business

17. Key First Steps Toward a More Effective Climate Service All agencies should ID climate-related observing systems, purpose, management, decision-makers User-oriented experiments (free data access) Develop regional; place-based “laboratories” Seek out opportunities to combine efforts to serve multiple purposes Create incentives – incentive for 10 principles and open exchange – support growth in capability designed by states or regions – success of the Oklahoma mesonet Education initiatives

18. Communication as an Integral Element

19. Communicating uncertainty should be an integral part of providing information Uncertainty is key to decision-making State why information is uncertain, not just the fact that it is uncertain State why information about uncertainty is important Use multiple measures of uncertainty Use multiple communication mechanisms

20. Communicating uncertainty and context shifts the burden and responsibility appropriately to the decision-maker Add context Communicate what you know as fully as possible, rather than only what you think the decision-maker needs to know

21. Communication and dissemination of information should be an integral part of the process, not be an afterthought Invest effort from the outset Education should be a goal Use multiple modes

22. Communication between information providers and users should not be a one- way street – two-way communication and feedback is essential

23. Success/failure/portrayal of forecasts determine the credibility of future forecasts Expect mis-interpretation – correct errors quickly Avoid over-selling forecasts or science Follow-up successful and failed forecasts with information

24. Diverse and different forecasts from multiple sources have both great value and have the potential to create confusion Multiple forecasts drive improvement Use combined sources in providing information (e.g. web page) Label “official” and “research” forecasts to limit confusion

25. The Equivalent of an “Environmental Situation Room” or “Intel Center” Foundation - Atmospheric Sciences Promote transition from research to operations Expand the forecasting family (Climate Service) Focus on Communication Create Regional integrated enterprises