1. Dave Siegel Director, Institute for Computational Earth System Science Professor, Department of Geography March 22, 2007 Global Warming & You

3. Recent Focus on Earth System Science…

4. What is Earth System Science? The science of global change

6. Global Climate Change Evidence for Global Warming - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (www.ipcc.ch) Role of the Carbon Cycle - Fossil vs. renewable carbon sources Consequences & Predictions Our options …

7. PNAS 2006;103;14288-14293.

8. Living foraminifera: Globigerinoides ruber 0.25 mm

9. PNAS 2006;103;14288-14293.

10. Qori Kalis ice tongue, Quelccaya Glacier, Peru: 1978 vs. 2000 Source: Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University: http://researchnews.osu.edu/ archive/glacgone.htm http://researchnews.osu.edu/ archive/glacgone.htm "These glaciers are very much like the canaries once used in coal mines. They're an indicator of massive changes taking place...in the tropics."

11. Portage Glacier, Alaska

12. IPCC [2007]

14. http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise.htm

15. Nature, 444, 752-755, 2006

17. cool ocean warm ocean warm ocean = low NPP

19. Atmospheric CO 2 Dave Keeling Pre-industrial = 280 ppm & present = 385 ppm Trends are related to fossil fuel releases Annual cycle due to terrestrial biosphere exchanges Mauna Loa

21. Carbon Dioxide Sources Figure 10.29

22. Carbon Dioxide Sources IPCC [2001]

25. Predicting Future Climates Need emission scenarios – socioeconomic prediction!! IPCC [2001]

27. IPCC [2007] Likely Future Climates

28. Warming to the Inconvenient Facts By Michael Grunwald Washington Post, July 23, 2006 “If the scientists are right about an apocalyptic future of floods, droughts, dead coral reefs, rising sea levels and advancing deserts, global warming is an existential threat that should affect our approach to just about every issue. To take it seriously, we would have to change the way we think about transportation, agriculture, development, water resources, natural disasters, foreign relations and more.”

29. Options Using less energy & increasing efficiency helps Must have zero-emission energy alternatives (no fossil CO 2 !) - solar, wind, nuclear, advanced biofuels Carbon capture and sequestration - or - Continue “Business As Usual” and rely on adaptation and/or engineering solutions?

31. Thank you for your attention IPCC: www.ipcc.ch Me: www.icess.ucsb.edu/~davey

32. Stott et al., 2000, Science: Annual-mean global mean near-surface temperature anomalies (relative to 1881-1920) for the NATURAL, ANTHRO, and ALL ensembles. Ensemble members are shown as colored lines, and observations are shown as a black line. Atmospheric CO 2 levels are 621 ppm in 2100 (scenario B2). HadCM3 model.

43. The UNFCCC An international treaty—the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Over a decade ago, many countries joined this treaty to deal with global warming The Kyoto Protocol is an addition to the UNFCCC and the 1992 Rio Accord

44. Kyoto Protocol Reduce the intensity of global warming, 38 industrialized nations must lower emissions of 6 greenhouse gases by 2008-2012 Greenhouse gases to be reduced by an average 5.2% below 1990 levels Implemented just last month May not be enough…

47. ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) El Niño is the abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific – named by Peruvians who noticed that it often occurred around Christmas (”the boy”) - also it came when fish catches were low… southern oscillation - shift in the pressure and trade wind patterns over the Pacific - implications for location of the warm water pool and convection ENSO drives much of interannual weather variations

48. El Nino & weather southeast US and western S. America are both wetter in winter much of Alaska and Pacific NW are warmer in winter Australia, Indonesia, and S. Africa are drier NH winter NH summer

49. Nature, 444, 752-755, 2006 for period 1999-2004

50. El Niño & Subtropical Jet Stream Hadley cells intensify as source of heat is now in central equatorial Pacific Jet stream intensifies & takes south path

51. El Niño in the United States Winter temp anomalies

52. El Niño in the United States Winter precip anomalies

53. El Niño in Australia

54. El Niño & Diseases

55. low pressure high pressure intense convection upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water (good fisheries) Normal State convective loop

56. El Niño State convective loop reverses increased convection, rainfall thermocline is depressed in the eastern Pacific and raised in the western Pacific fisheries along the coast fail rain falls on dry coastal deserts

57. Present Conditions

58. 97/98 El Niño The 97/98 El Niño was biggest of all time

59. Present Conditions NOAA Climate Prediction Center - March 3, 2005 A transition from weak warm-episode (El Niño) conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected to continue during the next three months.

60. Regions west to east