1. 1-1 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 1 Chapter 20 Testing Hypotheses about Proportions

2. 1-2 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 2 Introduction Read page 459.

3. 1-3 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 3 Chapter 20 Introduction We will now use statistics to reject or support hypotheses regarding parameters. This is called hypothesis testing. good stuff This is the good stuff. It is also the foundation for a majority of remaining material. Examples: 29.4% of ROHS students are sports fans. 74% of Americans don’t believe in global warming.

4. 1-4 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 4 Hypotheses Hypotheses are working models that we adopt temporarily and then see what the evidence has to say. Translation- they are claims or statements about something that are either true or nah (or perhaps it’s spelled naw). There are TWO TYPES OF HYPOTHESES: The NULL HYPOTHESIS The ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS

5. 1-5 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 5 Null Hypotheses Our starting hypothesis is called the null hypothesis. The null hypothesis, that we denote by H 0, specifies a population model parameter of interest and proposes a value that the parameter equals. We usually write down the null hypothesis in the form H 0 : parameter = hypothesized value. Emphasis here on equals a certain amount Emphasis here on equals a certain amount. The null is assumed to be true until proven otherwise.

6. 1-6 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 6 Hypotheses The alternative hypothesis, which we denote by H A, contains the values of the parameter that we consider plausible if we reject the null hypothesis. Emphasis here on the parameter does NOT equal a certain amount. Our question of inquiry determines our H A. For example, if we hope to find evidence that the new medication decreases the percent of infection, our H A will be that p is less than the current percent.

7. 1-7 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 7 Alternative Alternatives There are three possible alternative hypotheses: H A : parameter < hypothesized value H A : parameter ≠ hypothesized value H A : parameter > hypothesized value

8. 1-8 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 8 Hypotheses (cont.) The null hypothesis, specifies a population model parameter of interest and proposes a value for that parameter. We might have, for example, H 0 : p = 0.20, as in the chapter example. We want to compare our data to what we would expect given that H 0 is true. We can do this by finding out how many standard deviations away from the proposed value we are. We then ask how likely it is to get results like we did if the null hypothesis were true.

9. 1-9 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 9 A Trial as a Hypothesis Test Think about the logic of jury trials: To prove someone is guilty, we start by assuming they are innocent. We retain that hypothesis until the facts make it unlikely beyond a reasonable doubt. Then, and only then, we reject the hypothesis of innocence and declare the person guilty. What are the two possible results of a trial?

10. 1-10 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 10 A Trial as a Hypothesis Test (cont.) The same logic used in jury trials is used in statistical tests of hypotheses: We begin by assuming that a hypothesis (null) is true. Next we consider whether the data are consistent with the hypothesis. If they are, all we can do is retain the hypothesis we started with. If they are not, then like a jury, we ask whether they are unlikely beyond a reasonable doubt. What are the two possible results of hypothesis testing?

11. 1-11 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 11 Questions Is it possible to convict an innocent person? Apply this to hypothesis testing, and think about THISSSS: what are the odds that you reject a null hypothesis that is true? Do this how do we?

12. 1-12 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 12 Example TI believes that 20% of their fancy TI-Nspire calculators are made with defects, and they want this proportion to be lower. They make a change, and a random sample of 400 calculators only has 68 defected Nspires. Is this enough to conclude that the proportion of defects has gone down?

13. 1-13 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 13 The Process Check the conditions to make sure that you can use the normal model for sampling distribution. Give the null and alternative hypothesis. Show which model and test you are using. Calculate the probability of this sample occurring IF the null is true. Based on this result, decide to reject the null or nah and apply this decision to the context of problem. What is the obvious question to answer here?

14. 1-14 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 14 P-Values The key statistical insight is that we can quantify our level of doubt (it’s not subjective, per say)!!!!! We can use the model proposed by our hypothesis to calculate the probability that the event we’ve witnessed could happen. That’s just the probability we’re looking for- it quantifies exactly how surprised we are to see our results. This probability is called a P-value. MEMBER- what are the 2 possibilities from hypothesis testing???

15. 1-15 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 15 P-Values (cont.) When the data are consistent with the model from the null hypothesis, the P-value is high and we are unable to reject the null hypothesis. In that case, we have to “retain” the null hypothesis we started with. We can’t claim to have proved it; instead we “fail to reject the null hypothesis” when the data are consistent with the null hypothesis model and in line with what we would expect from natural sampling variability. If the P-value is low enough, we’ll “reject the null hypothesis,” since what we observed would be very unlikely were the null model true.

16. 1-16 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 16 What to Do with an “Innocent” Defendant If the evidence is not strong enough to reject the presumption of innocent, the jury returns with a verdict of “not guilty.” The jury does not say that the defendant is innocent. All it says is that there is not enough evidence to convict, to reject innocence. The defendant may, in fact, be innocent or guilty in reality, but the jury has no way to be sure, based upon this evidence.

17. 1-17 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 17 What to Do with an “Innocent” Defendant (cont.) Said statistically, we will fail to reject the null hypothesis. We never declare the null hypothesis to be true, because we simply do not know whether it’s true or not. Sometimes in this case we say that the null hypothesis has been retained. I don’t like this. Say “not enough evidence to reject the null” (KISS).

18. 1-18 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 18 What to Do with an “Innocent” Defendant (cont.) In a trial, the burden of proof is on the prosecution. In a hypothesis test, the burden of proof is on the unusual claim. The null hypothesis is the ordinary state of affairs, so it’s the alternative to the null hypothesis that we consider unusual (and for which we must marshal evidence).

19. 1-19 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 19 Since Mr. Hardin Likes Metaphors… What are the metaphorical statistical meanings of the following trial aspects? Defendant Prosecution Trial Process Verdict Verdict of Not Guilty Verdict of Guilty

20. 1-20 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 20 Practicamos 1. Researchers want to know if aspirin thins blood or nah. The null hypothesis states that it only does so 10% of the time. They test 12 random subjects and get a P- value of 0.32. They conclude that aspirin does indeed help 10% of the time. Your thoughts on this situation??? 2. An allergy drug has been tested and it is believed to give relief in 75% of people. Scientists made an adjustment, and they want to see if the drug has improved. 1. What would the two hypotheses be? 2. If the test has a P-value of 0.0001, what would you conclude?

21. 1-21 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 21 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing There are four basic parts to a hypothesis test: 1. Hypotheses 2. Model 3. Mechanics 4. Conclusion Let’s look at these parts in detail…

22. 1-22 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 22 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 1.Hypotheses The null hypothesis: To perform a hypothesis test, we must first translate our question of interest into a statement about model parameters. In general, we have H 0 : parameter = hypothesized value. The alternative hypothesis: The alternative hypothesis, H A, contains the values of the parameter we consider plausible when we reject the null. WHAT TO WRITE: Both hypotheses.

23. 1-23 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 23 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 2.Model To plan a statistical hypothesis test, specify the model you will use to test the null hypothesis and the parameter of interest. All models require assumptions, so state the assumptions and check any corresponding conditions. Your model step should end with a statement such Because the conditions are satisfied, I can model the sampling distribution of the proportion with a Normal model. Watch out, though. It might be the case that your model step ends with “Because the conditions are not satisfied, I can’t proceed with the test.” If that’s the case, stop and reconsider.

24. 1-24 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 24 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 2.Model Each test we discuss in the book has a name that you should include in your report. The test about proportions is called a one- proportion z-test.

25. 1-25 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 25 One-Proportion z-Test The conditions for the one-proportion z-test are the same as for the one proportion z-interval. We test the hypothesis H 0 : p = p 0 using the statistic where What to write: Verify conditions, then say that “we can use the normal model with mu = _ and SD = _ to do a one-proportion z-test.”

26. 1-26 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 26 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 3.Mechanics Under “mechanics” we place the actual calculation of our test statistic from the data. Different tests will have different formulas and different test statistics. Usually, the mechanics are handled by a statistics program or calculator, but it’s good to know the formulas. Calculator instructions, page 468. WHAT TO WRITE: Draw the normal curve with p and statistic, give the test value, and the P- value of this test value.

27. 1-27 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 27 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 3.Mechanics The ultimate goal of the calculation is to obtain a P-value. The P-value is the probability that the observed statistic value (or an even more extreme value) could occur if the null model were correct. If the P-value is small enough, we’ll reject the null hypothesis. Note: The P-value is a conditional probability—it’s the probability that the observed results could have happened if the null hypothesis is true.

28. 1-28 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 28 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) 4.Conclusion- TWO Parts The first part of the conclusion is always a statement about the null hypothesis. WHAT TO WRITE: State your decision: either that we reject or that we fail to reject the null hypothesis BASED ON THE P- VALUE. You need to tie your decision to your p-value. And that p-value should be compared to your significance level, α. We’ll talk about α more in the next chapter. For now, you can use α = 5% and reject H 0 if your p-value is less than 5%.

29. 1-29 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 29 The Reasoning of Hypothesis Testing (cont.) The second part of your conclusion is a description, in context, of the result of your decision. WHAT TO WRITE: If you reject H 0, you state that you found evidence to believe or support H A. If you fail to reject H 0, you state that you failed to find evidence to believe or support H A.

30. 1-30 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 30 WHAT TO WRITE Both hypotheses. Verify conditions, then say that “we can use the normal model with mu = _ and SD = _ to do a one- proportion z-test.” Draw the normal curve with p and statistic, give the test value, and the P-value of this test value. State your decision: either that we reject or that we fail to reject the null hypothesis BASED ON THE P- VALUE. If you reject H 0, you state that you found evidence to believe or support H A. If you fail to reject H 0, you state that you failed to find evidence to believe or support H A.

31. 1-31 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 31 Alternative Alternatives There are three possible alternative hypotheses: H A : parameter < hypothesized value H A : parameter ≠ hypothesized value H A : parameter > hypothesized value

32. 1-32 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 32 Alternative Alternatives (cont.) H A : parameter ≠ value is known as a two-sided alternative because we are equally interested in deviations on either side of the null hypothesis value. For two-sided alternatives, the P-value is the probability of deviating in either direction from the null hypothesis value.

33. 1-33 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 33 Alternative Alternatives (cont.) The other two alternative hypotheses are called one-sided alternatives, either left-sided (shown) or right-sided. A one-sided alternative focuses on deviations from the null hypothesis value in only one direction. Thus, the P-value for one-sided alternatives is the probability of deviating only in the direction of the alternative away from the null hypothesis value.

34. 1-34 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 34 What Can Go Wrong? Hypothesis tests are so widely used—and so widely misused—that the issues involved are addressed in their own chapter (Chapter 21). There are a few issues that we can talk about already, though:

35. 1-35 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 35 What Can Go Wrong? (cont.) Don’t base your null hypothesis on what you see in the data. Think about the situation you are investigating and develop your null hypothesis appropriately. Don’t base your alternative hypothesis on the data, either. Again, you need to Think about the situation. In other words, never use sample data in the hypotheses.

36. 1-36 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 36 What Can Go Wrong? (cont.) Don’t make your null hypothesis what you want to show to be true. In other words, never set out to show that a parameter equals some number. You can reject the null hypothesis, but you can never “accept” or “prove” the null, so you would never be able to accomplish your goal. Don’t forget to check the conditions. We need (1)randomization, (2)independence (not too large), and a sample that is (3)large enough to justify the use of the Normal model.

37. 1-37 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 37 What Can Go Wrong? (cont.) Don’t accept the null hypothesis or ever say that it is true. If you fail to reject the null hypothesis, don’t think a bigger sample would be more likely to lead to rejection. Each sample is different, and a larger sample won’t necessarily duplicate your current observations. This is like if the smaller sample wasn’t enough to reject the null, a larger one probably won’t make the difference for you.

38. 1-38 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 38 What have we learned? We can use what we see in a random sample to test a particular hypothesis about the world. Hypothesis testing complements our use of confidence intervals. Testing a hypothesis involves proposing a model, and seeing whether the data we observe are consistent with that model or so unusual that we must reject it. We do this by finding a P-value—the probability that data like ours could have occurred if the model is correct.

39. 1-39 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 39 What have we learned? (cont.) We’ve learned: Start with a null hypothesis. Alternative hypothesis can be one- or two-sided. Check assumptions and conditions. Data are out of line with H 0 : small P-value, reject the null hypothesis. Data are consistent with H 0 : large P-value, don’t reject the null hypothesis. State the conclusion in the context of the original question.

40. 1-40 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 40 What have we learned? (cont.) We know that confidence intervals and hypothesis tests go hand in hand in helping us think about models. A hypothesis test makes a yes/no decision about the plausibility of a parameter value. A confidence interval shows us the range of plausible values for the parameter.

41. 1-41 Copyright © 2015, 2010, 2007 Pearson Education, Inc. Chapter 19, Slide 41 AP Tips Check your conditions! The AP test will not remind you, but will expect you to do so. Write your conclusion carefully and make sure to provide p-value linkage. That is, you need to state that your P-value is either less than or greater than your significance level (use 5% unless otherwise instructed) so that the reader knows why you decided to reject/fail to reject. Accepting H 0 will always cost you points.