1. Development of Conceptual Models for the ARCN Coastal Ecosystems Workshop Torre Jorgenson, ABR Diane Sanzone, National Park Service

2. OBJECTIVES Review conceptual models for Central and Southwestern Networks (General vs Specific) Discuss sequential steps used to develop coastal models for the Arctic Network Review coastal models

3. Central Alaska Network: Thematic Model

4. Southwest Alaska Network: Specific Key Components

5. SWAN Ecosystem Model: Linkages

6. SWAN Ecosystem Model: Stressors

7. ARCN Coastal Model Development WORKSHOP ACTIVITIES Work within thematic working groups Partitioned ecological variability at landscape level to evaluate key processes (e.g. lagoons versus tundra cliffs) Developed questions directed toward monitoring of key components and processes Create submodels as desired Developed a consensus of key monitoring components and processes by group ranking of questions POST-WORKSHOP SYNTHESIS Identified key words that need to be incorporated in models Identify model structure (e.g., box and arrow, landscape graphic) Model graphics

8. Examples of Questions Question 1: How are nutrients cycled in the “open” and “closed” coastal lagoon systems of CAKR and BELA ? Are nutrient levels changing? (11) Attribute (Component/Process): nitrogen, phosphorus, sulfur Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: various Question 5: What is the effect of ice cover change/ open ocean season on shoreline ecosystems? (22) Attribute (Component/Process): timing of sea ice melting and snow pack Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: climate change Potential Measures: thickness/ density of ice Question 9: How is the abundance, diversity and productivity of species living in coastal habitats changing? (18) Attribute (Component/Process): bird abundance, diversity and reproductive capacity; changes in composition and productivity of coastal vegetation; changes in coastal invertebrates; changes in rare and endemic species populations; expansion of native species into the parks; presence and distribution of invasive/ exotic species Potential Driver/ Stressor of Change: climate change; forage pressure on vegetation

9. LONGER OPEN WATER SEASON More use by cetacea, Spotted, bearded seals, birds Productivity Incr. pelagic? Decr. Epontic? Match/mismatch? Pagophyllic Pinnipeds Changed prey community Critical habitat Changes! Decreased substrate Increased erosion (longer season) Climate influence On terr. Environ. Submodel for Nearshore Water Brandon Kelly 2004

10. Open Lagoon Systems of ARCN Freshwater Food Web + Marine Food Web Megafauna present Lagoon Does Not Freeze to Bottom Due to High Conductivity SUMMER WINTER Freeze Thaw Marine Food Web Terrestrial Food Web

11. Mechanistic Shoreline Erosion Model with Feedbacks Owen Mason

16. Conceptual Modeling Key Components and Processes + Linkages and Interactions + Food Webs + Global, Regional, and Local Stressors = One Honking Monitoring Challenge

17. ARCN Coastal Ecosystems Overview Model Barrier Island and Lagoon Ecosystems Rocky Coast Ecosystems Tundra Cliff and Sandy Shore Ecosystems Delta Ecosystems Potential Regional and Anthropogenic Stressors ATMOSPHERIC Air Temperature Storminess Snow Cover Precipitation Nitrogen Input Contaminants Albedo        OCEANOGRAPHIC      Sea Level Storm surges Sea Ice Fetch Length Wave Energy GEOMORPHIC Shoreline Erosion Barrier Island Migration Marine Sedi. Transport Land Sediment Deposit. Dune Formation/Scouring Thermokarst Active Layer        HYDROLOGIC       Precipitation Evaporation River Discharge Lake Extent Nutrient Load Sediment Load ANTHROPOGENIC           Airborne Pollution Mining Activity Oil and Gas Activity Subsistence Harvest Recreation Transportation Noise Land Use Regs. Villages, Inholdings Pollution BIOTIC Vegetation, Invertebrates Fish, Birds, Mammals Population Abundance Range Shifts Community Structure Foodweb Exotic Species      Produced for ARCN-NPS by M. T. Jorgenson and D. M. Sanzone

18. Arctic Food Web Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami

19. Terrestrial Model Development Consider whether ecosystem variability needs to be partitioned (e.g. rocky alpine vs. ice-rich lowland; boreal vs. tundra) Develop monitoring questions Identify key components and/or processes Identify linkages among ecosystem components Prioritize monitoring variables (“vital signs”) Emphasize content rather than modeling mechanics