1. Theories of Change and Logic Modeling: Matching Means and Ends
Effective Professional Development Resulting in Long-Term Student Achievement
NCLB/ITQ Symposium
October 10, 2008

2. IBHE Model for Evaluation

3. Theory of Action Universal Theory of Action:
Collaborative partnerships are the mechanism for action
Project Theories of Action: how each intervention is delivered
train-the-trainers model
on-line learning model
direct instruction model
cooperative learning model
workshop series model
mentor/mentee model
The Theory of Action describes HOW a project is delivered, usually based on the professional development literature

4. Limitations of Theories of Action
They describe HOW a project is delivered, not WHY it will work or what EFFECTS it will have.
They are therefore evaluated by outputs, not by outcomes/effects.
Output evaluation is necessary, but not sufficient, to show value for the project.

5. Theory of Change: Three Elements

6. Element One: The Change Framework
A backward mapping process that begins with Outcomes to plan, implement, and continuously develop and improve programs

7. Element Two: Program Interventions
Designing interventions or activities intended to create desired results, and linking them systematically

8. Element Three: Program Assumptions
Carefully articulating assumptions about how change will occur and testing the assumptions systematically through evaluation

9. Theory of Change: Background
Evaluation is challenging because program assumptions are not well-articulated.
The more complex the problem, the more difficult it is to be clear about how things will change as a result of the program.
By designing a Pathway of Change, program developers/ implementers/ evaluators, can strengthen the case that an intervention caused a result.

10. Theory of Change: Process
Backward mapping from long, short, and mid-range goals or outcomes laid out in sequence
Link outcomes to program elements
Plan evaluation from the outset to track achievement of the intended outcomes
Use evaluation results for improvement and accountability

11. Broad Benefits of Theories of Change
“Stakeholders value theories of change as part of program planning and evaluation because they create a commonly understood vision of the long-term goals, how they will be reached, and what will be used to measure progress along the way.”
ActKnowledge/The Aspen Roundtable

12. Theory of Change:Project Benefits
Makes explicit the basis for the project intervention
Consolidates the research that undergirds the project
Provides an overarching framework for project planning, implementation and evaluation

13. Theory of Change and Logic Modeling
A Logic Model is a graphic form of a Theory of Change
Takes the theory, which is selected on the basis of empirical evidence that it will work, and translates it into an operational plan.
Created by backward mapping.

14. The “IfThen” Connections
IF certain inputs are available…
THEN certain activities/interventions can take place;
IF these interventions occur…
THEN certain outputs will be seen; and
IF the interventions are effective…
THEN certain outcomes will be attained.
Finally, what we learn from the outputs and outcomes can be used to improve the intervention.

15. Building the Logic Model
Start with the Theory of Change:
“Companies do better when their employees are healthy.”
Cite empirical evidence for this theory.

16. Building the Logic Model
Do the backward mapping
Ask and answer the “How?” questions
Centers for Disease Control Healthier Worksite Initiative

17. Building The Logic Model
Lay out the steps in order from inputs to outcomes
Answer the “Why?” questions.
Centers for Disease Control Healthier Worksite Initiative

18. Building The Logic Model
Create the model with appropriate connections
INPUTS
Funding
Staff
Scientific Evidence

19. Building The Logic Model
Create the model with appropriate connections
INPUTS
INTERVENTION
Funding
Staff
Scientific Evidence
Workplace Walkability Program

20. Building The Logic Model
Create the model with appropriate connections
INPUTS
INTERVENTION
OUTPUT
Funding
Staff
Scientific Evidence
Employees walk to meetings more often
Workplace Walkability Program

21. Building The Logic Model
Create the model with appropriate connections
INPUTS
INTERVENTION
OUTPUT
OUTCOMES
Employee level of physical activity and fitness increases
Funding
Staff
Scientific Evidence
Employees walk to meetings more often
Workplace Walkability Program
Productivity Increases

22. Building The Logic Model
Create the model with appropriate connections
Identify your evaluation measures for outputs and outcomes
INPUTS
INTERVENTION
OUTPUT
OUTCOMES
Employee level of physical activity and fitness increases
Funding
Staff
Scientific Evidence
Employees walk to meetings more often
Workplace Walkability Program
Productivity Increases
Employee Logs
Employee Fitness Screenings
Company Data

23. Project Benefits of Logic Models
They make a stronger case for project investment – funders understand more clearly what you intend to do
They reflect group process and understanding among project staff and project participants
They indicate where and how to evaluate program effects

24. We Now Find These Everywhere
U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
Idaho State Board of Education

25. We Now Find These Everywhere
National Institute of Standards and Technology
processoutcome.org
Research Utilization Support & Help (RUSH)
Canadian Department of Justice

26. Ohio Department of Education (ODE)
NOT Recommended!
Ohio Department of Education (ODE)