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Modeling the effects of conservation strategies on human health in Africa Alicia Ellis Sam Meyers Chris Golden Taylor Ricketts
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Introduction Environmental Change Change in Health Human Activities Increased mosquito habitat Increased Malaria Deforestation Increased Agriculture Decreased Nutritional Disease 1.Multiple effects 2.Human Behavior? 3.Feedbacks & Dynamics? What is the best conservation strategy?
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Develop a dynamic simulation model to “predict” effects of policy on human behavior, environmental change and human health. Purpose Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health
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Bushmeat Hunting
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How do we maximize the protection of wildlife AND human health? What are the effects of different policies on hunting behavior, wildlife population dynamics, and nutrient related diseases? Fines & Increased regulation Livestock distribution Trophy hunting Questions
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The Model - Overview Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health Policy Hunting Behavior/O fftake Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel
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The Economic Submodel Budget Constraint Supply = Demand Income = Consumption/Costs I.agriculture + I.sell.bushmeat = C.commodities+ C.hunting+ Cons.bushmeat Optimization to Maximize Utility U ~ f (Commodities + Offtake Consumed) Utility
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The Economic Submodel Labor Species population density Group Size Labor Species population density Day range Snare density Offtake Fines, etc.
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The Biological Submodel Discrete Time Logistic Growth Species Population Density Begin with initial population density Calculate offtake Grow species populations Subtract offtake Calculate new offtake with new population density Repeat
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Economic & Biological Models Guns Snares Agriculture
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Policy Hunting Behavior/O fftake Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel The Model - Overview
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Bushmeat = Nutrients ( protein, iron, zinc) Goals: Test effect of policies (current and potential) on health Determine the change in nutrient-related disease that could result from policies that affect bushmeat consumption The Health Submodel
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Diet Surveys (by individual) Calculate Total Avg. Nutrient Intake (= mean intake for population) Proportion Exposed Avg. Amount of each Food Consumed (by population) The Health Submodel RDI Mean Iron Intake Frequency Disability Adjusted Life Years(DALYs): a measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health or early death. DALY P exposed Relative Risk Mortality Incidence Disability weight factor Duration of disability Run Model New Avg. Amount Bushmeat Consumed
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Diet Surveys (by individual) Calculate Total Avg. Nutrient Intake (= mean intake for population) Proportion Exposed Avg. Amount of each Food Consumed (by population) The Health Submodel RDI Mean Iron Intake Frequency Disability Adjusted Life Years(DALYs): a measure of overall disease burden, expressed as the number of years lost due to ill-health or early death. DALY P exposed Relative Risk Mortality Incidence Disability weight factor Duration of disability Run Model New Avg. Amount Bushmeat Consumed
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Policy Hunting Behavior/Off take Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel Policy What policies will drive these interactions to maximize benefits to wildlife & health? Fines for illegal species Regulation (probability of detecting) Payment for ecosystem services Livestock Trophy hunting
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A Framework Disease Burden Hunting Rate Species Abundance Hunting Rate Fine Health Response Function Environmental Response Function Behavioral Response Function Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health Policy Hunting Behavior/Off take Wildlife Population Dynamics Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel
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A Framework Disease Burden [Particulate] Area Burnt Fine Health Response Function Environmental Response Function Behavioral Response Function Policy Human Behavior Environmental Change Health Policy Burning [Particulate] Health Economic Submodel Biological Submodel Health Submodel
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David Wilkie, Wildlife Conservation Society Acknowledgements
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Different species growth functions More complex function for how income used More complex policies Include variation in demographic/economic factors within the human population Model Extensions
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beeta=0.8 pq=10000 pf=10000 F=20 L=12600 theta=0.6 psale=0.6 mu=psale*(1-theta) alphah=0.15 Cg=6240 Cs=2820 A= 100 D=0.0001 greekp=0.43 K=100000 b1=0.38 p1=16654 v1 = 0.28 N1=6000 g1=1 delta1=1 b2=0.4 p2=2797 v2 = 0.31 N2=10000 g2=1 delta2=1 List of Parameters
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