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Global Protein Demand Presented by Rob Murphy Senior Vice President September 10, 2015 Global Trade Exchange Conference, Minneapolis, MN
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2 Population Growth Rates Highest in Africa Source: United Nations
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3 Global Income Growth Projected 3-4%
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4 Africa and Asia Show to Largest Income Growth Source: IMF
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5 Projected GDP Growth, 2015 Source: IMF
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6 Projected GDP Growth, 2020 Source: IMF
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7 Chicken 2:1 (lbs of feed/lb live animal) Turkey 2.5:1 Fish 3:1 Hogs 3.5:1 Beef Cattle 6:1 Feed Efficiency Favors Poultry
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8 Source: USDA FAS Global Meat Exports Up 40% in 10 Years
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9 Global Live Swine Movement 2014 Annual
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10 Global Pork Movement 2014 Annual
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11 Global Broiler Meat Movement 2014 Annual
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12 China and EU Dominate World Pork Production
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13 China Hog Inventory Set to Grow Substantially
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14 China Sees Increasing Productivity
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15 China Sow Herd Down, But Expected to Rebound
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16 Brazilian Hog Inventory Marches Steadily Higher
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17 EU Set to Reverse Long Downtrend in Numbers
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18 Canada Recovering From Years of Decline
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19 US Recovers from PED virus
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20 Global Hog Numbers Set to Post Solid Increase
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21 Four Regions Dominate Global Broiler Production
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22 Broiler Production Slowly Recovers in China
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23 Moderate Production Increases in Brazil
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24 EU Continues Long-term Uptrend in Broiler Production
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25 India Steadily Increases Production
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26 Russia Cuts Imports, Increases Domestic Production
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27 Mexico a Smaller, but Growing Producer
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28 Strong US Profits Generate a Supply Increase
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29 Global Broiler Production Expanding
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30 US and EU dominate Turkey Production 2020 Turkey Production forecast at 12.45 billion pounds (+ 6.4%)
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31 China a Big Producer of Table Eggs 2020 Turkey Production forecast at 1.44 trillion eggs (+ 13.0%)
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32 World’s Appetite for Fish & Seafood Growing
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33 Fishmeal Can’t Keep Up With Demand
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34 China Projected +38% in Five Years
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35 Poultry Drives Growth in India
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36 Mexico on an Upward Trajectory
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37 Indonesia Sees Steep Growth
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38 Japan’s Usages Stagnates
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39 US Hog Inventory Has Bounced Back Fully
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40 Low Feed Costs Should Help US Hog Producers Stay Profitable
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41 US Producers Are Actively Adding to Breeding Stock
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42 The Productivity Rebound Has Been Phenomenal
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43 US Hog Slaughter in 2016 Should be Very Near 2015
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44 Pork and Chicken Have an Edge on Beef
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45 US Pork Exports Rebound After Two Down Years
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46 China Expected to Take More US Pork
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47 Mexico Should Remain a Strong Market for US Pork
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48 US Broiler Margins Have Encouraged Expansion
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49 US Turkey Margins Impacted by Avian Influenza Outbreak
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50 Strong Cow-Calf Profitability Drives Growth
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51 US Cattle Cycle Has Entered the Accumulation Phase
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52 Beef Exports Could Be Down 10% in 2015
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53 Summary: Global demand for protein meals should be robust in the next few years. Population and income growth, particularly in Asia and Africa, will put more consumers in a position to substitute animal protein for plant protein in their diet. Poultry and seafood will be the biggest beneficiaries of this switch, but pork should also show steady improvement. China remains the biggest driver of global demand for meats making this the biggest opportunity for soy meal demand growth. Growth in US hog and poultry numbers will keep domestic demand relatively strong.
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