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Global Protein Demand Presented by Rob Murphy Senior Vice President September 10, 2015 Global Trade Exchange Conference, Minneapolis, MN.

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Presentation on theme: "Global Protein Demand Presented by Rob Murphy Senior Vice President September 10, 2015 Global Trade Exchange Conference, Minneapolis, MN."— Presentation transcript:

1 Global Protein Demand Presented by Rob Murphy Senior Vice President September 10, 2015 Global Trade Exchange Conference, Minneapolis, MN

2 2 Population Growth Rates Highest in Africa Source: United Nations

3 3 Global Income Growth Projected 3-4%

4 4 Africa and Asia Show to Largest Income Growth Source: IMF

5 5 Projected GDP Growth, 2015 Source: IMF

6 6 Projected GDP Growth, 2020 Source: IMF

7 7 Chicken 2:1 (lbs of feed/lb live animal) Turkey 2.5:1 Fish 3:1 Hogs 3.5:1 Beef Cattle 6:1 Feed Efficiency Favors Poultry

8 8 Source: USDA FAS Global Meat Exports Up 40% in 10 Years

9 9 Global Live Swine Movement 2014 Annual

10 10 Global Pork Movement 2014 Annual

11 11 Global Broiler Meat Movement 2014 Annual

12 12 China and EU Dominate World Pork Production

13 13 China Hog Inventory Set to Grow Substantially

14 14 China Sees Increasing Productivity

15 15 China Sow Herd Down, But Expected to Rebound

16 16 Brazilian Hog Inventory Marches Steadily Higher

17 17 EU Set to Reverse Long Downtrend in Numbers

18 18 Canada Recovering From Years of Decline

19 19 US Recovers from PED virus

20 20 Global Hog Numbers Set to Post Solid Increase

21 21 Four Regions Dominate Global Broiler Production

22 22 Broiler Production Slowly Recovers in China

23 23 Moderate Production Increases in Brazil

24 24 EU Continues Long-term Uptrend in Broiler Production

25 25 India Steadily Increases Production

26 26 Russia Cuts Imports, Increases Domestic Production

27 27 Mexico a Smaller, but Growing Producer

28 28 Strong US Profits Generate a Supply Increase

29 29 Global Broiler Production Expanding

30 30 US and EU dominate Turkey Production 2020 Turkey Production forecast at 12.45 billion pounds (+ 6.4%)

31 31 China a Big Producer of Table Eggs 2020 Turkey Production forecast at 1.44 trillion eggs (+ 13.0%)

32 32 World’s Appetite for Fish & Seafood Growing

33 33 Fishmeal Can’t Keep Up With Demand

34 34 China Projected +38% in Five Years

35 35 Poultry Drives Growth in India

36 36 Mexico on an Upward Trajectory

37 37 Indonesia Sees Steep Growth

38 38 Japan’s Usages Stagnates

39 39 US Hog Inventory Has Bounced Back Fully

40 40 Low Feed Costs Should Help US Hog Producers Stay Profitable

41 41 US Producers Are Actively Adding to Breeding Stock

42 42 The Productivity Rebound Has Been Phenomenal

43 43 US Hog Slaughter in 2016 Should be Very Near 2015

44 44 Pork and Chicken Have an Edge on Beef

45 45 US Pork Exports Rebound After Two Down Years

46 46 China Expected to Take More US Pork

47 47 Mexico Should Remain a Strong Market for US Pork

48 48 US Broiler Margins Have Encouraged Expansion

49 49 US Turkey Margins Impacted by Avian Influenza Outbreak

50 50 Strong Cow-Calf Profitability Drives Growth

51 51 US Cattle Cycle Has Entered the Accumulation Phase

52 52 Beef Exports Could Be Down 10% in 2015

53 53 Summary: Global demand for protein meals should be robust in the next few years. Population and income growth, particularly in Asia and Africa, will put more consumers in a position to substitute animal protein for plant protein in their diet. Poultry and seafood will be the biggest beneficiaries of this switch, but pork should also show steady improvement. China remains the biggest driver of global demand for meats making this the biggest opportunity for soy meal demand growth. Growth in US hog and poultry numbers will keep domestic demand relatively strong.


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